Football intelligence,
priced against
the market.
Independent model probabilities, compared with the price the market is actually offering, and a record graded in the open.
Every call, graded against the closing line.
164 graded since 2026-06-13 · losses included · updated live
Beat the close
53.0%
87 of 164
Avg CLV
+0.42%
95% CI −0.51% to +1.35%
Record
94W–68L
ROI −2.30% · flat 1u
466
Fixtures priced
59
Competitions
11
In play
Top opportunities
Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 11 September at 08:02 UK time. Explore the full boardFixture
Market
Our model
Market fair
Edge
Best price
Book
Sevilla v ValenciaLa Liga - Spain · 20:001X2
flagged
2.04
Smarkets
Union Berlin v FC Schalke 04Bundesliga - Germany · 19:301X2
flagged
2.52
Smarkets
Defensa y Justicia v Gimnasia MendozaPrimera División - Argentina · 23:151X2
flagged
2.16
Betfair
Athletic Bilbao v Elche CFLa Liga - Spain · Sat 17:301X2
candidate
1.44
Grosvenor
Sunderland v ArsenalEPL · Sat 20:001X2
candidate
1.51
Betfair
Atlético Madrid v CA OsasunaLa Liga - Spain · Wed 18:001X2
candidate
1.51
BetfairOur model
Market fair
the devigged fair line from the observed book; withheld where it would be
circular, never estimated
Slate observed 10 h ago
Real-time match activity · in-play scan under a minute ago
Saudi Pro League
Al-Qadsiah
Al-Ettifaq3–3Last observed in play 11 min ago84′Saudi Pro League
Al-Faisaly KSA FC
Al-Ittihad0–373′Ekstraklasa - Poland
Raków Częstochowa
Motor Lublin1–1HTBundesliga 2 - Germany
SV Darmstadt 98
Arminia Bielefeld1–0HTFrauen-Bundesliga
Werder Bremen
Hamburger SV0–0HTBundesliga 2 - Germany
1. FC Nürnberg
Hannover 961–1
Al-QadsiahAl-Ettifaq3–3Last observed in play 11 min ago84′Saudi Pro LeagueAl-Faisaly KSA FCAl-Ittihad0–373′Ekstraklasa - PolandRaków CzęstochowaMotor Lublin1–1HTBundesliga 2 - GermanySV Darmstadt 98Arminia Bielefeld1–0HTFrauen-BundesligaWerder BremenHamburger SV0–0HTBundesliga 2 - Germany1. FC NürnbergHannover 961–1Two ways in
Built for an edge
A model of its own
Dixon-Coles attack and defence with ELO, rebuilt continuously from a growing archive of real results. It produces a probability before it ever sees a price.
Priced against the market
Every outcome is compared with a devigged fair line drawn from the observed book. Where that reference would be circular, the comparison is withheld rather than faked.
Timestamped, then graded
Each call is published with the price and the clock it was taken at, and settled against the closing line, so the record is a measurement rather than a memory.
Honest about absence
Missing data is shown as missing. No inferred score, no borrowed clock, no probability presented with more confidence than its inputs support.
La LigaSpain
1 fixture
no priced edge
Serie AItaly
1 fixture
no priced edge
La Liga - SpainSpain
23 fixtures
no priced edge
Primera División - ArgentinaBolivia
21 fixtures
no priced edge
Serie A - ItalyBrazil
21 fixtures
no priced edge
UEFA Europa LeagueWorld
20 fixtures
no priced edge
Brazil Série AInternational
19 fixtures
no priced edge
Dutch EredivisieNetherlands
19 fixtures
no priced edge
EPLEngland
19 fixtures
no priced edge
Bundesliga - GermanyAustria
16 fixtures
no priced edge
Ligue 1 - FranceCongo-DR
16 fixtures
no priced edge
3. Liga - GermanyGermany
1 live · 15 fixtures
no priced edge