Good evening 👋
Today's intelligence — model vs market on every fixture in the snapshot. Research, not instructions.
📅 Tuesday 14 July
Allsvenskan - SwedenMon 20 Jul, 18:00
ÖI Örgryte IS v Djurgardens IF DI
+21.6%
edge vs fair
45%
model probability
1X2 — Örgryte IS · best 8.00
strong value
EFL CupFri 7 Aug, 19:45
BC Bristol City v Walsall W
+20.9%
edge vs fair
26%
model probability
1X2 — Walsall · best 8.20
strong value
Eliteserien - NorwayFri 17 Jul, 18:15
B Bodø/Glimt v Fredrikstad FK FF
+18.1%
edge vs fair
26%
model probability
1X2 — Fredrikstad FK · best 16.00
strong value
Match intelligence
Örgryte IS v Djurgardens IF
Allsvenskan - Sweden · Mon 20 Jul, 18:00 UK
Model lean — 1X2
Örgryte IS
45%
model probability — uncertainty included by design
6.58
fair odds
8.00
best price
+21.6%
edge vs fair
Model probabilities
Market (fair, devigged · sharp)
Engine score — process gate
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
λ (exp. goals): 1.627 — 1.24
Most likely score: 1-1
Model–market gap: 30 pts
Most likely score: 1-1
Model–market gap: 30 pts
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Örgryte IS | 44.9% | 6.58 | 8.00 | +21.6% |
| Draw | 27.5% | 5.15 | 5.30 | +2.8% |
| Djurgardens IF | 27.7% | 1.53 | 1.42 | -7.1% |
Sharp reference (raw): 6.20 / 4.86 / 1.44 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Örgryte IS
W
Goals for/against (last 12): 4 / 3
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | H v BK Hacken | 4-3 | W |
Djurgardens IF
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Engine score is a 0–100 process gate, not a certainty claim —
it ranks independent agreement (market shape, expected value, model, form). Channel selections appear as
FLAGGED; everything else is shown so you can judge what we didn't flag too.
Next up (12 of 200 — all matches →)
| Match | Kickoff (UK) | Model lean | Fair odds (1X2) | Best price (1X2) | Best edge | Engine score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceará v Athletic Club (MG)
Brazil Série B |
Tue 14 Jul, 00:30 | Ceará 79% | 2.00 / 3.37 / 4.93
sharp, devigged |
1.94 / 3.35 / 5.20 | +5.4% Athletic Club (MG) |
— | |
| Zhejiang v Qingdao Hainiu FC
Super League - China |
Tue 14 Jul, 12:35 | Zhejiang 46% | 1.53 / 5.35 / 6.33
sharp, devigged |
1.51 / 5.00 / 6.40 | +1% Qingdao Hainiu FC |
— | |
| KuPS Kuopio v FK Vardar
UEFA Champions League Qualification |
Tue 14 Jul, 16:00 | KuPS Kuopio 45% | 1.65 / 4.57 / 5.68
consensus, devigged |
1.63 / 4.50 / 5.60 | -1.4% KuPS Kuopio |
— | |
| FC Iberia 1999 v FC Flora
UEFA Champions League Qualification |
Tue 14 Jul, 17:00 | FC Iberia 1999 45% | 1.65 / 4.76 / 5.46
consensus, devigged |
1.63 / 4.70 / 5.40 | -1.1% FC Iberia 1999 |
— | |
| Inter Club d'Escaldes v Lincoln Red Imps FC
UEFA Champions League Qualification |
Tue 14 Jul, 17:00 | Inter Club d'Escaldes 45% | 1.79 / 4.59 / 4.48
consensus, devigged |
1.76 / 4.50 / 4.40 | -1.7% Inter Club d'Escaldes |
— | |
| ETO FC Győr v Víkingur Reykjavík
UEFA Champions League Qualification |
Tue 14 Jul, 18:00 | ETO FC Győr 45% | 1.80 / 4.61 / 4.41
consensus, devigged |
1.80 / 4.60 / 4.40 | 0% ETO FC Győr |
— | |
| Riga FC v FC Ararat-Armenia
UEFA Champions League Qualification |
Tue 14 Jul, 18:00 | Riga FC 45% | 1.85 / 3.95 / 4.88
consensus, devigged |
1.82 / 3.90 / 4.80 | -1.4% Riga FC |
— | |
| PFC Levski Sofia v FK Borac Banja Luka
UEFA Champions League Qualification |
Tue 14 Jul, 18:30 | PFC Levski Sofia 45% | 1.36 / 5.24 / 13.51
consensus, devigged |
1.35 / 5.20 / 13.50 | -0.7% PFC Levski Sofia |
— | |
| The New Saints FC v Sabah FK
UEFA Champions League Qualification |
Tue 14 Jul, 18:30 | The New Saints FC 45% | 5.68 / 4.57 / 1.65
consensus, devigged |
5.60 / 4.50 / 1.63 | -1.4% The New Saints FC |
— | |
| FC Drita v FK Kauno Žalgiris
UEFA Champions League Qualification |
Tue 14 Jul, 19:00 | FC Drita 45% | 2.53 / 3.47 / 3.16
consensus, devigged |
2.48 / 3.40 / 3.10 | -2% FC Drita |
— | |
| France v Spain
FIFA World Cup |
Tue 14 Jul, 20:00 | France 38% | 2.53 / 3.29 / 3.32
sharp, devigged |
2.52 / 3.30 / 3.30 | +0.4% Draw |
55/100 |
|
| Shamrock Rovers v Floriana F.C.
UEFA Champions League Qualification |
Tue 14 Jul, 20:00 | Shamrock Rovers 45% | 1.34 / 5.85 / 11.76
consensus, devigged |
1.31 / 5.70 / 11.50 | -2.5% Shamrock Rovers |
— |
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
Market analysis
best price vs devigged fair line
| Market | Best | Fair | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 · Örgryte IS Örgryte IS v Djurgardens IF |
8.00 | 6.58 | +21.6% | strong |
| 1X2 · Walsall Bristol City v Walsall |
8.20 | 6.80 | +20.9% | strong |
| 1X2 · Fredrikstad FK Bodø/Glimt v Fredrikstad FK |
16.00 | 13.51 | +18.1% | strong |
| 1X2 · Atlanta United FC Nashville SC v Atlanta United FC |
8.00 | 6.85 | +16.6% | strong |
| 1X2 · Degerfors IF Hammarby IF v Degerfors IF |
11.50 | 10.20 | +12.4% | strong |
| 1X2 · Dundee FC Celtic v Dundee FC |
13.00 | 11.63 | +12.1% | strong |
| 1X2 · Västerås SK Mjällby AIF v Västerås SK |
4.40 | 3.95 | +11.3% | strong |
Odds movement
1X2 · Örgryte IS — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Örgryte ISFair line (devig) — Örgryte IS
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Closing-line value
the number we judge ourselves on
-0.25%
avg CLV · 53 flags
8/20
last 20 beat the close
Alerts
flags posted & closings captured — sign in for alerts
Closing captured — América Mineiro to Win 2.02 → 2.18 (-7.3% CLV)
07-13 08:00
Closing captured — Both Teams to Score 1.70 → 1.65 (+3% CLV)
07-12 10:00
Closing captured — Bodø/Glimt to Win 1.57 → 1.53 (+2.6% CLV)
07-12 09:00
Closing captured — Rosenborg to Win 1.66 → 1.62 (+2.5% CLV)
07-12 08:00
Our intelligence, your context — the process behind every number
Data-driven
A Dixon-Coles + ELO model rebuilt continuously from a growing archive of real results, blended with the market it is priced against.
AI-assisted, bounded
Grounded AI briefs explain the numbers and flag risks. Models never invent a price or a probability — the statistical engine and the market own the numbers.
Market-focused
Every idea is compared against the sharp line and devigged fair odds — value is measured, not asserted.
Logged & graded
Every prediction is timestamped and graded against the closing line. Wins and losses stay on the page.
Built for analysts
Signal-level transparency: see what each input contributes, its sample size, and whether it earns its keep.
Always improving
The model retrains on every finished match, and weak signals get demoted by evidence — not by opinion.