Mjällby AIF v Västerås SK
Allsvenskan - Sweden · Fri 17 Jul, 18:00 UK
Model probabilities
45% / 28% / 28%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.627 — 1.24
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Mjällby AIF 31% · Västerås SK 18% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mjällby AIF | 44.9% | 1.94 | 1.85 | -4.7% |
| Draw | 27.5% | 4.31 | 4.00 | -7.2% |
| Västerås SK | 27.7% | 3.95 | 4.40 | +11.3% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.67 · Under: 2.08 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.83 / 4.07 / 3.73 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Mjällby AIF — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Mjällby AIFFair line (devig) — Mjällby AIF
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Mjällby AIF
L
Goals for/against (last 12): 1 / 2
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | H v AIK Stockholm | 1-2 | L |
Västerås SK
LWDLLW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.5 / 1.92
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | H v Goteborg | 4-5 | L |
| 2026-05-24 | A v Malmo FF | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-05-17 | H v AIK | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-09 | H v GAIS | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-03 | A v Hammarby | 0-3 | L |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.