SHARPFOOTYData · Models · Insight Track record
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Track record

Every call, timestamped and graded against the closing line — updated live, wins and losses alike. 162 settled · since 2026-06-13 · 4 open
beat the close
53%
87 of 164 graded · 13 of 20 most recent
avg CLV
+0.42%
95% CI -0.51% to 1.35%
win rate
58%
95% CI 50.3% to 65.4% · n=162
ROI (flat 1u)
-2.3%
95% CI -15.3% to 10.6%
max drawdown
-19.15u
over the full settled ledger · longest losing run 5
posted record
94W–68L
secondary — closing-line value is the primary benchmark

Confidence & risk — the record with its uncertainty. Intervals are 95% (Wilson for rates, normal approximation for ROI and CLV). A small sample gives wide intervals: that is honesty, not weakness, and the wider the interval the less any single number above should be leaned on yet.

The ledger

Showing 20 of 60, newest first — posted calls, settled and open.
MatchPosted (UTC)SelectionTakenCloseCLVResult
Ried v RB Salzburg
BUN
 2026-09-11 13:25 RB Salzburg to Win
h2h
 1.56 1.54 +1.3% OPEN
Union Berlin v FC Schalke 04
BUN
 2026-09-11 10:00 Over 2.5 Goals
totals
 1.65 — — OPEN
Defensa y Justicia v Gimnasia Mendoza
PDA
 2026-09-11 09:00 Defensa y Justicia to Win
h2h
 2.16 — — OPEN
Sevilla v Valencia
LAL
 2026-09-11 08:00 Sevilla to Win
h2h
 2.04 — — OPEN
Fenerbahce v AS Roma
UCL
 2026-09-10 10:00 Over 2.5 Goals
totals
 1.68 1.60 +5% ✕ LOSS
PSV Eindhoven v Shakhtar Donetsk
UCL
 2026-09-10 09:00 PSV Eindhoven to Win
h2h
 1.53 1.54 -0.6% ✕ LOSS
CF Estrela v Braga
PRI
 2026-09-10 08:00 Braga to Win
h2h
 1.72 1.64 +4.9% ✕ LOSS
Ljungskile SK v Norrby IF
SS
 2026-09-09 10:00 Over 2.5 Goals
totals
 1.64 1.60 +2.5% ✓ WIN
Chelsea v Leeds United
EFL
 2026-09-09 09:00 Chelsea to Win
h2h
 1.61 1.95 -17.4% ✓ WIN
Napoli v Arsenal
UCL
 2026-09-09 08:00 Arsenal to Win
h2h
 1.75 1.72 +1.7% ✓ WIN
Ilves Tampere v Jaro
VF
 2026-09-08 13:25 Over 2.5 Goals
totals
 1.68 1.69 -0.6% ✕ LOSS
Crystal Palace v Middlesbrough
EFL
 2026-09-08 10:00 Over 2.5 Goals
totals
 1.60 1.65 -3% ✓ WIN
Sunderland v Hull City
EFL
 2026-09-08 09:00 Sunderland to Win
h2h
 1.79 1.82 -1.6% ✓ WIN
Borussia Dortmund v Villarreal
UCL
 2026-09-08 08:00 Borussia Dortmund to Win
h2h
 1.88 1.78 +5.6% ✓ WIN
FC Midtjylland v FC Nordsjaelland
DS
 2026-09-07 10:00 Over 2.5 Goals
totals
 1.64 1.44 +13.9% ✓ WIN
Deportes Limache v Cobresal
PDC
 2026-09-07 08:00 Deportes Limache to Win
h2h
 1.73 1.57 +10.2% ✓ WIN
Brondby IF v Randers FC
DS
 2026-09-06 10:00 Over 2.5 Goals
totals
 1.64 1.62 +1.2% ✓ WIN
Vissel Kobe v V-Varen Nagasaki
JL
 2026-09-06 09:00 Vissel Kobe to Win
h2h
 1.73 1.65 +4.8% ✓ WIN
Vitória SC v Casa Pia
PRI
 2026-09-06 08:00 Vitória SC to Win
h2h
 1.54 1.51 +2% ✕ LOSS
Aberdeen v Kilmarnock
PS
 2026-09-05 10:00 Over 2.5 Goals
totals
 1.71 1.68 +1.8% ✕ LOSS

Shadow record

what the engine would have played on every scanned fixture

Every day the engine scores every fixture it scans, not just the ones posted. Would-be picks above threshold are logged and graded exactly like real ones — an evidence stream that cannot be cherry-picked after the fact.

56
would-be picks graded
55.4%
shadow win rate
-3.88u
shadow units (flat 1u)

Performance charts

the live settled record only

Every chart below is derived from settled selections in this ledger at a flat one-unit stake — the 113 graded inside the most recent window this feed publishes, 19 Jul 2026 to 10 Sept 2026. The totals above cover the whole settled ledger, so the two samples can differ. Nothing from the backtest appears here, no month with no settled bet is drawn as a zero, and no losing period is smoothed away. Where a sample is too small to carry a rate, the rate is withheld rather than shown.

Cumulative settled units

Every settled selection in the order it was graded, staked flat at one unit. Losing runs are shown, not smoothed — the shape of a record is part of the record.

Metric Net units (flat 1u stake)Sample 113Source Settled tips ledger
  • Cumulative units
-20.0u -10.0u 0.0u +10.0u19 Jul26 Jul03 Aug09 Aug16 Aug03 Sept09 Sept

Flat staking: one unit per selection, win returns (odds − 1), loss returns −1, push returns 0. Net -14.13u over 113 settled selections.

113 settled selections. Net -14.13u. Lowest point of the curve -17.14u.

Show the numbers
The most recent 60 of 113 settled selections.
SettledSelectionOddsResultUnitsCumulative
09 AugKuPS Kuopio v TPS Turku1.55LOSS-1.00-9.01
09 AugFlamengo v Vitoria1.65LOSS-1.00-10.01
11 AugColumbus Crew SC v Pumas1.66LOSS-1.00-11.01
11 AugFC Cincinnati v Atlas1.52LOSS-1.00-12.01
11 AugHelsingborgs IF v IFK Värnamo1.65WIN+0.65-11.36
12 AugSan Diego FC v Puebla1.65WIN+0.65-10.71
12 AugInter Miami CF v León2.00LOSS-1.00-11.71
13 AugPortland Timbers v Tijuana1.94WIN+0.94-10.77
13 AugPhiladelphia Union v Santos Laguna1.48LOSS-1.00-11.77
13 AugAl-Shabab v Al-Qadsiah1.58WIN+0.58-11.19
13 AugNew York City FC v Necaxa1.71LOSS-1.00-12.19
14 AugIF Elfsborg v Västerås SK1.86WIN+0.86-11.33
14 AugLASK v Ried1.52WIN+0.52-10.81
14 AugLegia Warszawa v Radomiak Radom1.62WIN+0.62-10.19
14 AugNeom v Al-Fayha1.70WIN+0.70-9.49
15 AugExcelsior v PSV Eindhoven1.59WIN+0.59-8.90
15 AugAtlante FC v Toluca1.70LOSS-1.00-9.90
16 AugAjax v Heerenveen1.49LOSS-1.00-10.90
16 AugGirona FC v Leganés1.66LOSS-1.00-11.90
16 AugADO Den Haag v Groningen1.74WIN+0.74-11.16
17 AugInternacional v Remo1.61LOSS-1.00-12.16
17 AugPachuca v Puebla1.54LOSS-1.00-13.16
17 AugBrondby IF v SonderjyskE1.65WIN+0.65-12.51
19 AugShanghai SIPG FC v Dalian Yingbo1.52LOSS-1.00-13.51
19 AugŠK Slovan Bratislava v NK Celje1.76LOSS-1.00-14.51
19 AugColorado Rapids v Los Angeles FC1.76LOSS-1.00-15.51
19 AugCerro Porteño v Palmeiras-SP1.57WIN+0.57-14.94
21 AugMarseille v Strasbourg1.81WIN+0.81-14.13
21 AugDundalk v Galway United1.81LOSS-1.00-15.13
21 AugFC Juárez v América1.81WIN+0.81-14.32
01 SeptSheffield United v Bolton Wanderers1.75WIN+0.75-13.57
01 SeptSalford City v Newport County1.60WIN+0.60-12.97
01 SeptExeter City v Barnet1.75LOSS-1.00-13.97
02 SeptYokohama F Marinos v Kyoto Purple Sanga2.06LOSS-1.00-14.97
02 SeptFalkirk F.C. v Rangers1.64WIN+0.64-14.33
03 SeptAnderlecht v KV Kortrijk1.50WIN+0.50-13.83
03 SeptPalermo v Mantova1.67WIN+0.67-13.16
03 SeptHibernian v Hearts1.84WIN+0.84-12.32
03 SeptReal Sociedad v Celta Vigo1.95LOSS-1.00-13.32
04 SeptShamrock Rovers v Shelbourne Dublin1.77LOSS-1.00-14.32
04 SeptSparta Rotterdam v FC Zwolle2.00LOSS-1.00-15.32
04 SeptPiast Gliwice v GKS Katowice1.71WIN+0.71-14.61
05 SeptNewcastle United v Bournemouth2.16LOSS-1.00-15.61
05 SeptPhiladelphia Union v CF Montreal1.47WIN+0.47-15.14
05 SeptAberdeen v Kilmarnock1.71LOSS-1.00-16.14
06 SeptVitória SC v Casa Pia1.54LOSS-1.00-17.14
06 SeptVissel Kobe v V-Varen Nagasaki1.73WIN+0.73-16.41
06 SeptBrondby IF v Randers FC1.64WIN+0.64-15.77
07 SeptDeportes Limache v Cobresal1.73WIN+0.73-15.04
07 SeptFC Midtjylland v FC Nordsjaelland1.64WIN+0.64-14.40
08 SeptBorussia Dortmund v Villarreal1.88WIN+0.88-13.52
08 SeptSunderland v Hull City1.79WIN+0.79-12.73
08 SeptCrystal Palace v Middlesbrough1.60WIN+0.60-12.13
08 SeptIlves Tampere v Jaro1.68LOSS-1.00-13.13
09 SeptNapoli v Arsenal1.75WIN+0.75-12.38
09 SeptChelsea v Leeds United1.61WIN+0.61-11.77
09 SeptLjungskile SK v Norrby IF1.64WIN+0.64-11.13
10 SeptCF Estrela v Braga1.72LOSS-1.00-12.13
10 SeptPSV Eindhoven v Shakhtar Donetsk1.53LOSS-1.00-13.13
10 SeptFenerbahce v AS Roma1.68LOSS-1.00-14.13

Drawdown

How far the cumulative unit curve sits below its own running peak. Zero means the record is at a new high; the trough is the worst run it has been through.

Metric Units below the running peakSample 113Source Settled tips ledger
  • Units below peak
-30.0u -20.0u -10.0u 0.0u +10.0u19 Jul26 Jul03 Aug09 Aug16 Aug03 Sept09 Sept

Definition: cumulative units minus the highest cumulative units reached before that point, measured on settled selections at a flat one-unit stake. Current -16.14u · maximum -19.15u.

Current drawdown -16.14u. Maximum drawdown -19.15u across 113 settled selections.

Monthly performance

Net units per calendar month. Months in which nothing settled are absent rather than shown as zero.

Metric Net units per monthSample 113Source Settled tips ledger
  • Positive month
  • Negative month
-15.0u -10.0u -5.0u 0.0u +5.0uJul 26: -1.9u (n=31)Aug 26: -12.4u (n=52)Sept 26: +0.2u (n=30)Jul 26Aug 26Sept 26

ROI is net units ÷ settled selections in that month. A month below the sample threshold shows n/a rather than a rate the sample cannot support.

3 months with settled selections. 1 positive, 2 negative.

Show the numbers
MonthSettledUnitsROI
Jul 2631-1.90-6.1%
Aug 2652-12.42-23.9%
Sept 2630+0.190.6%

Performance by market type

Net units by the market each selection was placed in.

Metric Net units by groupSample 113Source Settled tips ledger
  • Positive
  • Negative
-10.0u -5.0u 0.0u +5.0uh2h: -8.0u (n=80)totals: -6.1u (n=33)h2htotals

ROI is net units ÷ settled selections in that group.

2 groups across 113 settled selections.

Show the numbers
MarketSettledUnitsROISample
h2h80-7.99-10.0%sufficient
totals33-6.14-18.6%sufficient

Performance by odds band

Net units grouped by the price taken. Bands are fixed decimal-odds ranges and do not move with the results.

Metric Net units by groupSample 113Source Settled tips ledger
  • Positive
  • Negative
-10.0u -5.0u 0.0u +5.0u1.00–1.50: -2.1u (n=5)1.50–2.00: -8.2u (n=100)2.00–3.00: -3.9u (n=8)1.00–1.501.50–2.002.00–3.00

ROI is net units ÷ settled selections in that group.

3 groups across 113 settled selections.

Show the numbers
Odds bandSettledUnitsROISample
1.50–2.00100-8.21-8.2%sufficient
2.00–3.008-3.86-48.2%early
1.00–1.505-2.06-41.2%early

Performance by league

Net units by competition. The chart bounds the axis; the table lists every league, including the negative ones.

Metric Net units by groupSample 113Source Settled tips ledger
  • Positive
  • Negative
-4.0u -2.0u 0.0u +2.0u +4.0uBrazil Série A: -2.9u (n=10)Leagues Cup: -3.2u (n=10)Liga MX: -2.9u (n=8)Denmark Superliga: -1.4u (n=8)Superettan - Sweden: +2.0u (n=6)MLS: -0.2u (n=5)UEFA Champions League Qualification: -3.3u (n=5)EFL Cup: 0.0u (n=5)Other (26): -2.2u (n=56)Brazi…Leagu…Liga …Denma…Super…MLSUEFA …EFL C…Other…

The chart shows the 8 largest groups by sample plus an “Other” aggregate; the full list including every negative group is in the table.

34 groups across 113 settled selections.

Show the numbers
Every group, including the 26 aggregated into “Other” in the chart. No group is removed for being negative.
LeagueSettledUnitsROISample
Brazil Série A10-2.88-28.8%early
Leagues Cup10-3.18-31.8%early
Liga MX8-2.90-36.2%early
Denmark Superliga8-1.42-17.8%early
Superettan - Sweden6+1.9732.8%early
MLS5-0.23-4.6%early
UEFA Champions League Qualification5-3.27-65.4%early
EFL Cup5+0.000.0%early
Dutch Eredivisie5-0.17-3.4%early
League of Ireland4-4.00n/atoo small
UEFA Champions League4-0.37n/atoo small
Veikkausliiga - Finland3-1.37n/atoo small
Allsvenskan - Sweden3+2.15n/atoo small
Primera División - Argentina3+0.60n/atoo small
Ekstraklasa - Poland3+1.97n/atoo small
Primeira Liga - Portugal3-3.00n/atoo small
Premiership - Scotland3+0.48n/atoo small
Copa Sudamericana2+1.27n/atoo small
Eliteserien - Norway2-0.30n/atoo small
Austrian Football Bundesliga2+1.20n/atoo small
Super League - China2-0.32n/atoo small
Belgium First Div2-0.50n/atoo small
Saudi Pro League2+1.28n/atoo small
League 22-0.40n/atoo small
J League2-0.27n/atoo small
K League 11-1.00n/atoo small
La Liga 2 - Spain1-1.00n/atoo small
Copa Libertadores1+0.57n/atoo small
Ligue 1 - France1+0.81n/atoo small
Championship1+0.75n/atoo small
Coppa Italia1+0.67n/atoo small
La Liga - Spain1-1.00n/atoo small
EPL1-1.00n/atoo small
Primera División - Chile1+0.73n/atoo small

Closing-line value

How each selection’s price compared with the market’s closing price. Beating the close is the process metric; it is measurable long before profit is.

Metric CLV % per settled selectionSample 113Source Settled tips ledger with a captured closing price
  • Beat the close
  • Below the close
-20 0 20 40 60≤ −10%: 5−10 to −5%: 11−5 to 0%: 340 to +5%: 38+5 to +10%: 18≥ +10%: 7≤ −10%−10 to −5%−5 to 0%0 to +5%+5 to +10%≥ +10%

Average CLV 0.5% · beat the close on 60 of 113 (53.1%). Bands are fixed and do not move with the results.

113 selections with a captured close. Average CLV 0.5%. 60 of 113 beat the close.

Show the numbers
CLV bandSelections
≤ −10%5
−10 to −5%11
−5 to 0%34
0 to +5%38
+5 to +10%18
≥ +10%7

Calibration — do the model’s 60%s win 60% of the time?

Each point is a band of model probabilities. On the dashed diagonal means the model’s stated confidence matched what actually happened. This measures honesty of the probability, not profit.

Metric Observed win rate vs predicted probabilitySample 4,485Source Settled scanned fixtures
  • Probability band
  • Perfect calibration
0% 0% 25% 25% 50% 50% 75% 75% 100% 100%predicted 6%, observed 22.7%, n=44predicted 16%, observed 23.4%, n=286predicted 26%, observed 27.7%, n=2142predicted 34%, observed 33.3%, n=711predicted 45%, observed 43.3%, n=909predicted 54%, observed 44.4%, n=250predicted 64%, observed 58.2%, n=110predicted 75%, observed 52.4%, n=21 (sparse)predicted 84%, observed 37.5%, n=8 (sparse)predicted 94%, observed 100.0%, n=4 (sparse)Predicted probability

Hollow points are bands with fewer than 30 graded outcomes — too few to distinguish miscalibration from chance.

10 probability bands from 4485 graded outcomes — each finished fixture contributes three: home, draw and away. 3 bands are below the sample threshold and drawn hollow.

Show the numbers
BandSamplesPredictedObservedGap
0–10%445.8%22.7%+16.9pt
10–20%28615.8%23.4%+7.6pt
20–30%214226.4%27.7%+1.3pt
30–40%71133.6%33.3%-0.3pt
40–50%90945.1%43.3%-1.8pt
50–60%25054.3%44.4%-9.9pt
60–70%11064.3%58.2%-6.1pt
70–80%2174.6%52.4%-22.2pt
80–90%883.9%37.5%-46.4pt
90–100%494.0%100.0%+6.0pt
ledger compiled just now · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.