Over/Under 2.5 Goals — Model Probabilities

Model-derived total-goals probabilities for the 200 modelled fixtures on the snapshot, most open games first. Research, not instructions.

How these probabilities are derived. The engine publishes expected goals (λ) per team from its Dixon-Coles + ELO model. The percentages below are derived from those published numbers under an independent-Poisson view and labelled as derived — open a match for the model's full correlation-aware matrix. Probabilities, not promises: no outcome is ever certain.

Match	Kickoff (UK)	Expected total goals	Over / Under 2.5 (derived)	Market price O/U
Yunnan Yukun v Shanghai SIPG FC SLC	Fri 17 Jul, 13:00	3.53	69% / 31%	—
Viking FK v Sandefjord EN	Sat 18 Jul, 17:00	3.50	68% / 32%	—
Inter Miami CF v Chicago Fire MLS	Thu 23 Jul, 00:30	3.49	68% / 32%	—
Hammarby IF v Degerfors IF AS	Sun 19 Jul, 15:30	3.36	65% / 35%	—
Los Angeles FC v Real Salt Lake MLS	Thu 23 Jul, 03:30	3.32	64% / 36%	—
Vålerenga v Aalesund EN	Thu 16 Jul, 18:00	3.26	63% / 37%	—
SJK Seinäjoki v KuPS Kuopio VF	Sat 18 Jul, 15:00	3.23	63% / 37%	1.63 / 2.30 @ 2.5
San Jose Earthquakes v Orlando City SC MLS	Thu 23 Jul, 03:30	3.19	62% / 38%	—
Necaxa v Atlante FC LM	Fri 17 Jul, 02:00	3.19	62% / 38%	1.76 / 2.18 @ 2.5
SC Cambuur v Excelsior ERE	Fri 7 Aug, 19:00	3.15	61% / 39%	1.62 / 2.28 @ 2.5
Colorado Rapids v San Diego FC MLS	Thu 23 Jul, 02:30	3.13	60% / 40%	—
CF Montreal v Toronto FC MLS	Fri 17 Jul, 00:30	3.09	60% / 40%	1.66 / 2.20 @ 2.5
Monterrey v Santos Laguna LM	Sun 19 Jul, 02:00	3.08	60% / 40%	—
Bodø/Glimt v Fredrikstad FK EN	Fri 17 Jul, 18:15	3.06	59% / 41%	—
IK Start v Rosenborg EN	Sat 18 Jul, 15:00	3.06	59% / 41%	1.70 / 2.05 @ 2.5
Lillestrom v KFUM EN	Sat 18 Jul, 15:00	3.06	59% / 41%	1.70 / 2.12 @ 2.5
Kristiansund BK v Sarpsborg FK EN	Sat 18 Jul, 15:00	3.06	59% / 41%	1.65 / 2.18 @ 2.5
Molde v SK Brann EN	Sat 18 Jul, 17:00	3.06	59% / 41%	—
New England Revolution v Toronto FC MLS	Thu 23 Jul, 00:30	3.03	58% / 42%	—
FC Cincinnati v Vancouver Whitecaps FC MLS	Thu 23 Jul, 00:30	3.02	58% / 42%	—
St. Louis City SC v Sporting Kansas City MLS	Fri 17 Jul, 01:30	3.02	58% / 42%	—
Beijing FC v Liaoning Tieren FC SLC	Fri 17 Jul, 12:35	2.98	57% / 43%	—
Henan FC v Qingdao Hainiu FC SLC	Fri 17 Jul, 12:35	2.98	57% / 43%	1.64 / 2.20 @ 2.5
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC v Zhejiang SLC	Sat 18 Jul, 12:00	2.98	57% / 43%	1.65 / 2.15 @ 2.5
Dalian Yingbo v Shandong Luneng Taishan FC SLC	Sat 18 Jul, 12:35	2.98	57% / 43%	—
Wuhan Three Towns v Shenzhen Peng City FC SLC	Sat 18 Jul, 13:00	2.98	57% / 43%	1.74 / 2.05 @ 2.5
Nashville SC v Atlanta United FC MLS	Sat 18 Jul, 01:10	2.98	57% / 43%	1.67 / 2.32 @ 2.5
LA Galaxy v Los Angeles FC MLS	Sat 18 Jul, 03:25	2.98	57% / 43%	—
Charlotte FC v Atlanta United FC MLS	Thu 23 Jul, 01:15	2.98	57% / 43%	—
Houston Dynamo v D.C. United MLS	Thu 23 Jul, 01:30	2.98	57% / 43%	—
LA Galaxy v St. Louis City SC MLS	Thu 23 Jul, 03:30	2.98	57% / 43%	—
Sporting Kansas City v Minnesota United FC MLS	Thu 23 Jul, 01:30	2.97	57% / 43%	—
Portland Timbers v FC Dallas MLS	Thu 23 Jul, 03:30	2.96	57% / 43%	—
Chicago Fire v Vancouver Whitecaps FC MLS	Fri 17 Jul, 01:30	2.92	56% / 44%	—
Columbus Crew SC v New York City FC MLS	Thu 23 Jul, 00:30	2.89	55% / 45%	—
IFK Goteborg v IF Brommapojkarna AS	Fri 17 Jul, 18:00	2.87	55% / 45%	1.62 / 2.15 @ 2.5
Mjällby AIF v Västerås SK AS	Fri 17 Jul, 18:00	2.87	55% / 45%	1.63 / 2.15 @ 2.5
Halmstads BK v BK Hacken AS	Sun 19 Jul, 15:30	2.87	55% / 45%	1.50 / 2.43 @ 2.5
IF Elfsborg v IK Sirius AS	Sun 19 Jul, 15:30	2.87	55% / 45%	1.67 / 2.20 @ 2.5
Örgryte IS v Djurgardens IF AS	Mon 20 Jul, 18:00	2.87	55% / 45%	—
Kalmar FF v Malmo FF AS	Mon 20 Jul, 18:00	2.87	55% / 45%	1.67 / 2.15 @ 2.5
Seattle Sounders FC v Portland Timbers MLS	Fri 17 Jul, 03:30	2.85	54% / 46%	—
Shanghai Shenhua FC v Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC SLC	Sat 18 Jul, 12:35	2.85	54% / 46%	—
Philadelphia Union v New York Red Bulls MLS	Thu 23 Jul, 00:30	2.84	54% / 46%	—
Corinthians v Remo BSA	Thu 23 Jul, 23:30	2.84	54% / 46%	1.97 / 1.79 @ 2.5
Vitoria v Vasco da Gama BSA	Thu 16 Jul, 23:30	2.82	54% / 46%	2.06 / 1.82 @ 2.5
Qingdao West Coast FC v Chengdu Rongcheng FC SLC	Fri 17 Jul, 12:00	2.81	53% / 47%	1.68 / 2.20 @ 2.5
Nashville SC v CF Montreal MLS	Thu 23 Jul, 01:30	2.81	53% / 47%	—
Atletico Mineiro v Bahia BSA	Tue 21 Jul, 23:30	2.77	52% / 48%	2.02 / 1.85 @ 2.5
Pachuca v Querétaro LM	Mon 27 Jul, 02:00	2.77	52% / 48%	—
Santos Laguna v Atlas LM	Sun 26 Jul, 04:00	2.75	52% / 48%	—
Necaxa v Monterrey LM	Mon 27 Jul, 00:00	2.74	52% / 48%	—
Tijuana v Tigres LM	Fri 17 Jul, 04:10	2.72	51% / 49%	1.84 / 2.02 @ 2.5
León v Atlas LM	Sat 18 Jul, 02:00	2.72	51% / 49%	1.91 / 1.80 @ 2.5
Atlético San Luis v Cruz Azul LM	Sat 18 Jul, 02:00	2.72	51% / 49%	1.70 / 2.06 @ 2.5
FC Juárez v Puebla LM	Sat 18 Jul, 04:00	2.72	51% / 49%	1.68 / 2.10 @ 2.5
Pumas v Pachuca LM	Sun 19 Jul, 00:00	2.72	51% / 49%	1.75 / 2.05 @ 2.5
Guadalajara v Toluca LM	Sun 19 Jul, 02:07	2.72	51% / 49%	1.70 / 2.17 @ 2.5
Querétaro v América LM	Sun 19 Jul, 04:00	2.72	51% / 49%	1.85 / 1.92 @ 2.5
Toluca v Pumas LM	Wed 22 Jul, 04:00	2.72	51% / 49%	1.60 / 2.28 @ 2.5
Tigres v Atlético San Luis LM	Sat 25 Jul, 02:00	2.72	51% / 49%	—
Atlante FC v América LM	Sat 25 Jul, 04:00	2.72	51% / 49%	—
Tijuana v León LM	Sat 25 Jul, 04:00	2.72	51% / 49%	—
Guadalajara v FC Juárez LM	Sun 26 Jul, 00:07	2.72	51% / 49%	—
Mirassol v Grêmio BSA	Sat 18 Jul, 00:00	2.70	51% / 49%	2.16 / 1.74 @ 2.5
HJK Helsinki v VPS Vaasa VF	Sat 18 Jul, 13:00	2.70	51% / 49%	1.63 / 2.30 @ 2.5
AC Oulu v IF Gnistan VF	Sat 18 Jul, 15:00	2.70	51% / 49%	1.75 / 1.98 @ 2.5
Jaro v FC Inter Turku VF	Sun 19 Jul, 16:30	2.70	51% / 49%	1.67 / 2.15 @ 2.5
TPS Turku v Ilves Tampere VF	Mon 20 Jul, 16:00	2.70	51% / 49%	1.67 / 2.10 @ 2.5
IFK Mariehamn v FC Lahti VF	Mon 20 Jul, 17:00	2.70	51% / 49%	1.70 / 2.08 @ 2.5
Cruz Azul v Puebla LM	Wed 22 Jul, 02:00	2.69	50% / 50%	1.55 / 2.30 @ 2.5
HamKam v Tromso EN	Sat 18 Jul, 13:00	2.69	50% / 50%	2.05 / 1.72 @ 2.5
Nacional de Montevideo v CA Tigre BA CS	Tue 21 Jul, 23:00	2.67	50% / 50%	2.30 / 1.57 @ 2.5
UCV FC v Santos CS	Wed 22 Jul, 01:30	2.67	50% / 50%	2.05 / 1.72 @ 2.5
Independiente Medellín v Vasco da Gama CS	Wed 22 Jul, 23:00	2.67	50% / 50%	2.14 / 1.67 @ 2.5
Sporting Cristal v Bragantino-SP CS	Thu 23 Jul, 01:30	2.67	50% / 50%	2.00 / 1.80 @ 2.5
Lanus v Club Cienciano CS	Thu 23 Jul, 01:30	2.67	50% / 50%	1.80 / 1.97 @ 2.5
Club Bolívar v Grêmio CS	Thu 23 Jul, 23:00	2.67	50% / 50%	1.73 / 2.12 @ 2.5
Boca Juniors v O'Higgins CS	Fri 24 Jul, 01:30	2.67	50% / 50%	1.80 / 2.00 @ 2.5
Independiente Santa Fe v Caracas FC CS	Fri 24 Jul, 01:30	2.67	50% / 50%	2.15 / 1.67 @ 2.5
Tranmere Rovers v Rochdale EFL	Sat 1 Aug, 15:00	2.67	50% / 50%	1.77 / 2.00 @ 2.5
York City v Crawley Town EFL	Mon 3 Aug, 19:30	2.67	50% / 50%	1.85 / 2.00 @ 2.5
Cambridge United v Barnet EFL	Sat 8 Aug, 13:00	2.67	50% / 50%	1.95 / 1.77 @ 2.5
Queens Park Rangers v Millwall EFL	Sat 8 Aug, 14:00	2.67	50% / 50%	1.91 / 1.91 @ 2.5
Crewe Alexandra v Accrington Stanley EFL	Sat 8 Aug, 15:00	2.67	50% / 50%	1.76 / 1.96 @ 2.5
Barnsley v Wigan Athletic EFL	Sat 8 Aug, 15:00	2.67	50% / 50%	1.91 / 1.83 @ 2.5
Swansea City v Birmingham City EFL	Sat 8 Aug, 15:00	2.67	50% / 50%	1.95 / 1.81 @ 2.5
Burton Albion v Blackburn Rovers EFL	Sat 8 Aug, 15:00	2.67	50% / 50%	2.02 / 1.73 @ 2.5
Grimsby Town v Blackpool EFL	Sat 8 Aug, 15:00	2.67	50% / 50%	1.85 / 1.91 @ 2.5
Sheffield Wednesday v Bolton Wanderers EFL	Sat 8 Aug, 15:00	2.67	50% / 50%	1.85 / 1.91 @ 2.5
Bristol Rovers v Peterborough United EFL	Sat 8 Aug, 15:00	2.67	50% / 50%	1.80 / 1.98 @ 2.5
Bromley FC v Reading EFL	Sat 8 Aug, 15:00	2.67	50% / 50%	1.85 / 1.91 @ 2.5
Burnley v Notts County EFL	Sat 8 Aug, 15:00	2.67	50% / 50%	1.65 / 2.25 @ 2.5
Cardiff City v Swindon Town EFL	Sat 8 Aug, 15:00	2.67	50% / 50%	1.60 / 2.28 @ 2.5
Fleetwood Town v Chesterfield FC EFL	Sat 8 Aug, 15:00	2.67	50% / 50%	1.85 / 1.91 @ 2.5
Derby County v Lincoln City EFL	Sat 8 Aug, 15:00	2.67	50% / 50%	1.67 / 2.12 @ 2.5
Stockport County FC v Doncaster Rovers EFL	Sat 8 Aug, 15:00	2.67	50% / 50%	1.70 / 2.08 @ 2.5
Gillingham v Luton EFL	Sat 8 Aug, 15:00	2.67	50% / 50%	1.85 / 1.88 @ 2.5
Universitatea Craiova v FC Vitebsk UCL	Wed 15 Jul, 18:30	2.61	48% / 52%	—
FC Atert Bissen v Klaksvíkar Ítróttarfelag UCL	Wed 15 Jul, 19:15	2.61	48% / 52%	—
FK Sutjeska Nikšić v FC Kairat UCL	Wed 15 Jul, 20:00	2.61	48% / 52%	—
KF Egnatia v Petrocub Hîncești UCL	Wed 15 Jul, 20:00	2.61	48% / 52%	—
Daejeon Citizen v Ulsan Hyundai FC KL1	Sat 18 Jul, 11:30	2.61	48% / 52%	1.88 / 1.85 @ 2.5
Gangwon FC v Sangju Sangmu FC KL1	Sat 18 Jul, 11:30	2.61	48% / 52%	2.00 / 1.80 @ 2.5
Incheon United v Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors KL1	Sat 18 Jul, 11:30	2.61	48% / 52%	2.10 / 1.67 @ 2.5
Jeju United FC v Pohang Steelers KL1	Sat 18 Jul, 11:30	2.61	48% / 52%	2.40 / 1.53 @ 2.5
Bucheon FC 1995 v FC Seoul KL1	Sun 19 Jul, 11:30	2.61	48% / 52%	—
FC Anyang v Gwangju FC KL1	Sun 19 Jul, 11:30	2.61	48% / 52%	2.10 / 1.67 @ 2.5
Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors v Daejeon Citizen KL1	Tue 21 Jul, 11:30	2.61	48% / 52%	—
Jeju United FC v Gangwon FC KL1	Tue 21 Jul, 11:30	2.61	48% / 52%	—
Ulsan Hyundai FC v Incheon United KL1	Tue 21 Jul, 11:30	2.61	48% / 52%	—
Viborg FF v OB Odense BK DS	Fri 24 Jul, 18:00	2.61	48% / 52%	1.67 / 2.17 @ 2.5
Union La Calera v Everton de Viña del Mar PDC	Fri 24 Jul, 23:00	2.61	48% / 52%	—
Colo Colo v Deportes Limache PDC	Sat 25 Jul, 01:30	2.61	48% / 52%	—
AGF Aarhus v Brondby IF DS	Sat 25 Jul, 17:00	2.61	48% / 52%	1.66 / 2.16 @ 2.5
Servette v FC Basel SS	Sat 25 Jul, 17:00	2.61	48% / 52%	—
FC Lausanne-Sport v Grasshopper Zürich SS	Sat 25 Jul, 17:00	2.61	48% / 52%	—
FC Luzern v FC Thun SS	Sat 25 Jul, 19:30	2.61	48% / 52%	—
Coquimbo Unido v Universidad de Concepción PDC	Sat 25 Jul, 20:00	2.61	48% / 52%	—
Huachipato v Cobresal PDC	Sat 25 Jul, 22:30	2.61	48% / 52%	—
Universidad Católica (CHI) v La Serena PDC	Sun 26 Jul, 01:00	2.61	48% / 52%	—
SonderjyskE v FC Midtjylland DS	Sun 26 Jul, 13:00	2.61	48% / 52%	—
BSC Young Boys v FC Sion SS	Sun 26 Jul, 13:00	2.61	48% / 52%	—
FC Copenhagen v Lyngby DS	Sun 26 Jul, 15:00	2.61	48% / 52%	—
FC Lugano v FC Vaduz SS	Sun 26 Jul, 15:30	2.61	48% / 52%	—
FC St Gallen v FC Zurich SS	Sun 26 Jul, 15:30	2.61	48% / 52%	—
AC Horsens v FC Nordsjaelland DS	Sun 26 Jul, 17:00	2.61	48% / 52%	—
Ñublense v Palestino PDC	Sun 26 Jul, 20:00	2.61	48% / 52%	—
Audax Italiano v Universidad de Chile PDC	Sun 26 Jul, 22:30	2.61	48% / 52%	—
Deportes Concepción v O'Higgins PDC	Mon 27 Jul, 01:30	2.61	48% / 52%	—
Randers FC v Silkeborg IF DS	Mon 27 Jul, 18:00	2.61	48% / 52%	1.65 / 2.18 @ 2.5
LASK v Grazer AK BUN	Fri 31 Jul, 18:30	2.61	48% / 52%	—
Dundee United v Rangers PS	Fri 31 Jul, 20:00	2.61	48% / 52%	—
Falkirk F.C. v St Mirren PS	Sat 1 Aug, 15:00	2.61	48% / 52%	1.75 / 2.08 @ 2.5
WSG Tirol v Sturm Graz BUN	Sat 1 Aug, 16:00	2.61	48% / 52%	—
Aberdeen v Hearts PS	Sat 1 Aug, 17:30	2.61	48% / 52%	1.70 / 2.08 @ 2.5
RB Salzburg v Hartberg BUN	Sat 1 Aug, 18:30	2.61	48% / 52%	—
St Johnstone v Kilmarnock PS	Sun 2 Aug, 14:00	2.61	48% / 52%	1.75 / 2.06 @ 2.5
Austria Lustenau v Ried BUN	Sun 2 Aug, 16:00	2.61	48% / 52%	—
Wolfsberger AC v Austria Wien BUN	Sun 2 Aug, 16:00	2.61	48% / 52%	—
Hibernian v Motherwell PS	Sun 2 Aug, 16:30	2.61	48% / 52%	1.80 / 2.06 @ 2.5
Rapid Wien v Rheindorf Altach BUN	Sun 2 Aug, 18:00	2.61	48% / 52%	—
Celtic v Dundee FC PS	Mon 3 Aug, 19:30	2.61	48% / 52%	—
VfL Bochum v Hertha Berlin BUN	Fri 7 Aug, 19:30	2.61	48% / 52%	—
Club Brugge v KV Kortrijk BFD	Fri 7 Aug, 19:45	2.61	48% / 52%	—
Bristol City v Walsall EFL	Fri 7 Aug, 19:45	2.61	48% / 52%	1.67 / 2.32 @ 2.5
Wolverhampton Wanderers v Port Vale EFL	Fri 7 Aug, 19:45	2.61	48% / 52%	1.55 / 2.32 @ 2.5
Wycombe Wanderers v Stevenage EFL	Fri 7 Aug, 19:45	2.61	48% / 52%	—
Middlesbrough v Wrexham AFC EFL	Fri 7 Aug, 20:00	2.61	48% / 52%	1.76 / 2.00 @ 2.5
1. FC Heidenheim v VfL Osnabrück BUN	Sat 8 Aug, 12:00	2.61	48% / 52%	—
1. FC Magdeburg v Eintracht Braunschweig BUN	Sat 8 Aug, 12:00	2.61	48% / 52%	—
Karlsruher SC v Arminia Bielefeld BUN	Sat 8 Aug, 12:00	2.61	48% / 52%	—
SV Darmstadt 98 v Holstein Kiel BUN	Sat 8 Aug, 12:00	2.61	48% / 52%	—
Austin FC v Seattle Sounders FC MLS	Thu 23 Jul, 01:30	2.60	48% / 52%	—
River Plate v Barracas Central PDA	Sat 25 Jul, 23:15	2.59	48% / 52%	—
Botafogo v Santos BSA	Thu 16 Jul, 23:30	2.52	46% / 54%	1.88 / 2.00 @ 2.5
Fluminense v Bragantino-SP BSA	Sat 18 Jul, 00:00	2.52	46% / 54%	2.07 / 1.75 @ 2.5
Sao Paulo v Atletico Paranaense BSA	Thu 23 Jul, 01:30	2.52	46% / 54%	2.14 / 1.68 @ 2.5
Chapecoense v Flamengo BSA	Thu 23 Jul, 01:30	2.52	46% / 54%	1.77 / 2.00 @ 2.5
Coritiba v Palmeiras BSA	Wed 22 Jul, 23:30	2.51	46% / 54%	2.17 / 1.67 @ 2.5
AIK v GAIS AS	Sat 18 Jul, 14:00	2.48	45% / 55%	1.85 / 1.94 @ 2.5
Botafogo v Vitoria BSA	Thu 23 Jul, 23:30	2.48	45% / 55%	—
Bahia v Chapecoense BSA	Fri 17 Jul, 23:30	2.47	45% / 55%	1.63 / 2.44 @ 2.5
England v Argentina FWC	Wed 15 Jul, 20:00	2.39	43% / 57%	2.58 / 1.62 @ 2.5
Gimnasia Mendoza v Central Córdoba PDA	Fri 24 Jul, 20:45	2.29	40% / 60%	—
Internacional v Cruzeiro BSA	Thu 23 Jul, 01:30	2.27	40% / 60%	2.08 / 1.73 @ 2.5
Sarmiento de Junin v Argentinos Juniors PDA	Thu 23 Jul, 23:30	2.25	39% / 61%	—
Belgrano de Cordoba v Rosario Central PDA	Thu 23 Jul, 23:30	2.25	39% / 61%	—
Defensa y Justicia v Aldosivi Mar del Plata PDA	Fri 24 Jul, 01:45	2.25	39% / 61%	—
Racing Club v Gimnasia La Plata PDA	Fri 24 Jul, 23:00	2.25	39% / 61%	—
Velez Sarsfield BA v Instituto de Córdoba PDA	Fri 24 Jul, 23:00	2.25	39% / 61%	—
Atlético Huracán v Banfield PDA	Sat 25 Jul, 01:15	2.25	39% / 61%	—
Platense v Union Santa Fe PDA	Sat 25 Jul, 01:15	2.25	39% / 61%	—
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto v CA Tigre BA PDA	Sat 25 Jul, 18:45	2.25	39% / 61%	—
Newells Old Boys v Talleres PDA	Sat 25 Jul, 21:00	2.25	39% / 61%	—
Atlético Tucuman v Independiente Rivadavia PDA	Sun 26 Jul, 19:00	2.25	39% / 61%	—
Estudiantes v Independiente PDA	Sun 26 Jul, 21:15	2.25	39% / 61%	—
Deportivo Riestra v Boca Juniors PDA	Sun 26 Jul, 23:30	2.25	39% / 61%	—
Lanus v San Lorenzo PDA	Sun 26 Jul, 01:30	2.20	38% / 62%	—
Clube de Regatas Brasil v Nautico PE BSB	Fri 17 Jul, 00:00	2.06	34% / 66%	2.00 / 1.92 @ 2.5
América Mineiro v Ceará BSB	Fri 17 Jul, 23:00	2.06	34% / 66%	2.25 / 1.61 @ 2.5
São Bernardo v Avai BSB	Fri 17 Jul, 23:00	2.06	34% / 66%	2.18 / 1.74 @ 2.5
Juventude v Cuiabá BSB	Fri 17 Jul, 23:00	2.06	34% / 66%	—
Londrina v Botafogo BSB	Sat 18 Jul, 01:00	2.06	34% / 66%	2.33 / 1.57 @ 2.5
Fortaleza v Grêmio Novorizontino BSB	Sat 18 Jul, 01:00	2.06	34% / 66%	2.12 / 1.70 @ 2.5
Criciuma v Vila Nova BSB	Sat 18 Jul, 20:00	2.06	34% / 66%	2.25 / 1.67 @ 2.5
Ponte Preta v Goiás BSB	Sat 18 Jul, 20:00	2.06	34% / 66%	2.25 / 1.71 @ 2.5
Sport Recife v Operario PR BSB	Sat 18 Jul, 20:00	2.06	34% / 66%	2.20 / 1.81 @ 2.5
Atletico Goianiense v Athletic Club (MG) BSB	Sat 18 Jul, 22:00	2.06	34% / 66%	2.20 / 1.62 @ 2.5
Avai v América Mineiro BSB	Tue 21 Jul, 23:30	2.06	34% / 66%	—
Grêmio Novorizontino v Criciuma BSB	Tue 21 Jul, 23:30	2.06	34% / 66%	—
Goiás v Sport Recife BSB	Thu 23 Jul, 00:30	2.06	34% / 66%	—
IK Oddevold v Varbergs BoIS SS	Sat 18 Jul, 12:00	1.75	26% / 74%	1.73 / 2.00 @ 2.5
Östersunds FK v Landskrona BoIS SS	Sat 18 Jul, 14:00	1.75	26% / 74%	1.75 / 2.00 @ 2.5
Östers IF v IK Brage SS	Sat 18 Jul, 16:00	1.75	26% / 74%	1.49 / 2.50 @ 2.5
IFK Norrkoping v Sandvikens IF SS	Sun 19 Jul, 12:00	1.75	26% / 74%	—
IFK Värnamo v Ljungskile SK SS	Sun 19 Jul, 14:00	1.75	26% / 74%	1.70 / 2.15 @ 2.5
Nordic United FC v Örebro SK SS	Sun 19 Jul, 14:00	1.75	26% / 74%	1.67 / 2.12 @ 2.5
Norrby IF v GIF Sundsvall SS	Mon 20 Jul, 18:00	1.75	26% / 74%	1.85 / 1.85 @ 2.5
Falkenbergs FF v Helsingborgs IF SS	Tue 21 Jul, 18:00	1.75	26% / 74%	1.61 / 2.25 @ 2.5

Frequently asked questions

What does over/under 2.5 goals mean?

A market on the total goals in the match: over 2.5 wins with three or more goals, under 2.5 with two or fewer. The probabilities here are derived from the model’s total expected goals.

How are the over 2.5 probabilities calculated?

The model’s expected goals for the two teams are summed and the chance of 0, 1 or 2 total goals is computed under a Poisson view; over 2.5 is one minus that. A labelled derivation — the engine’s full score matrix lives on each match page.

Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.