Over/Under 2.5 Goals — Model Probabilities

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This page selects every modelled fixture, ordered by the derived probability of three or more total goals, with the captured market price beside it where one is held. A fixture without published expected goals cannot be derived and is left out.

21 fixtures of 21 considered

Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 11 September at 08:02 UK time.

How these probabilities are derived. They come from the engine's own bivariate Poisson score matrix with the Dixon-Coles low-score correction — the same matrix the match pages show, computed once by the engine rather than re-derived here. Probabilities, not promises: no outcome is ever certain.

Match	Kickoff (UK)	Expected total goals	Over / Under 2.5 (derived)	Market price O/U
Newells Old Boys v Velez Sarsfield BA PDA	Fri 11 Sept, 21:00	members	members	—
Defensa y Justicia v Gimnasia Mendoza PDA	Fri 11 Sept, 23:15	members	members	—
Boca Juniors v Central Córdoba PDA	Sat 12 Sept, 01:30	members	members	—
Independiente Rivadavia v Aldosivi Mar del Plata PDA	Sat 12 Sept, 18:45	members	members	—
Estudiantes v Platense PDA	Sat 12 Sept, 18:45	members	members	—
Atlético Tucuman v River Plate PDA	Sat 12 Sept, 21:30	members	members	—
Talleres v Union Santa Fe PDA	Sun 13 Sept, 00:00	members	members	—
CA Tigre BA v Rosario Central PDA	Sun 13 Sept, 18:45	members	members	—
Sarmiento de Junin v Belgrano de Cordoba PDA	Sun 13 Sept, 18:45	members	members	—
Argentinos Juniors v Gimnasia La Plata PDA	Sun 13 Sept, 21:00	members	members	—
Independiente v San Lorenzo PDA	Sun 13 Sept, 23:15	members	members	—
Atlético Huracán v Racing Club PDA	Mon 14 Sept, 01:30	members	members	—
Deportivo Riestra v Lanus PDA	Mon 14 Sept, 23:00	members	members	—
Banfield v Barracas Central PDA	Mon 14 Sept, 23:00	members	members	—
Instituto de Córdoba v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto PDA	Tue 15 Sept, 01:15	members	members	—
Central Córdoba v Defensa y Justicia PDA	Fri 18 Sept, 22:00	members	members	—
Racing Club v Sarmiento de Junin PDA	Sat 19 Sept, 01:15	members	members	—
Gimnasia La Plata v Banfield PDA	Sat 19 Sept, 18:30	members	members	—
Gimnasia Mendoza v Deportivo Riestra PDA	Sat 19 Sept, 18:30	members	members	—
Union Santa Fe v Independiente PDA	Sat 19 Sept, 20:45	members	members	—
Instituto de Córdoba v Talleres PDA	Sun 20 Sept, 01:15	members	members	—

Frequently asked questions

What does over/under 2.5 goals mean?

A market on the total goals in the match: over 2.5 wins with three or more goals, under 2.5 with two or fewer. The probabilities here are derived from the model’s total expected goals.

How are the over 2.5 probabilities calculated?

From the engine’s full score matrix: the probabilities of every 0, 1 and 2-goal scoreline are added and over 2.5 is one minus that total. It is the same matrix the match pages show, computed once by the engine, so the two never disagree.

Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 11 September at 08:02 UK time. · engine slate assembled 12 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.