Receipts — every call, priced and graded in the open

Ried v RB Salzburg Austrian Football Bundesliga

BEAT CLOSE PENDING

Took

1.56

Closed

1.54

CLV

+1.3%

Posted · Friday 11 September

RB Salzburg to Win

Model: 38.5%
Model fair odds: 2.60
Model EV: —
Engine score: 76
Data held: 1 of 4 · no form, market consensus, EV

Later

not graded yet

Close captured: 20m before kick-off

Union Berlin v FC Schalke 04 Bundesliga - Germany

NO CLOSE PENDING

Took

1.65

Closed

—

CLV

—

Posted · Friday 11 September

Over 2.5 Goals

Model: —
Model fair odds: —
Model EV: -4.4%
Engine score: 77
Data held: 4 of 4

Later

not graded yet

Close captured: no closing line captured

Defensa y Justicia v Gimnasia Mendoza Primera División - Argentina

NO CLOSE PENDING

Took

2.16

Closed

—

CLV

—

Posted · Friday 11 September

Defensa y Justicia to Win

Model: 54.2%
Model fair odds: 1.85
Model EV: -1.2%
Engine score: 77
Data held: 3 of 4 · no form

Later

not graded yet

Close captured: no closing line captured

Sevilla v Valencia La Liga - Spain

NO CLOSE PENDING

Took

2.04

Closed

—

CLV

—

Posted · Friday 11 September

Sevilla to Win

Model: 44.8%
Model fair odds: 2.23
Model EV: -1.5%
Engine score: 82
Data held: 4 of 4

Later

not graded yet

Close captured: no closing line captured

Fenerbahce v AS Roma UEFA Champions League

BEAT CLOSE LOST

Took

1.68

Closed

1.60

CLV

+5%

Posted · Thursday 10 September

Over 2.5 Goals

Model: —
Model fair odds: —
Model EV: -4.4%
Engine score: 77
Data held: 3 of 4 · no form

Later · graded Thursday 10 September

Final score 1–1

Close captured: 20m before kick-off

Beat the close and lost. This is what a working process looks like on a single bet: we bought a better number than the market settled on, and the match went the other way. Judge the price over many bets; judge the result over none.

PSV Eindhoven v Shakhtar Donetsk UEFA Champions League

POOR PRICE LOST

Took

1.53

Closed

1.54

CLV

-0.6%

Posted · Thursday 10 September

PSV Eindhoven to Win

Model: 61.7%
Model fair odds: 1.62
Model EV: -2.2%
Engine score: 76
Data held: 3 of 4 · no form

Later · graded Thursday 10 September

Final score 1–1

Close captured: 20m before kick-off

CF Estrela v Braga Primeira Liga - Portugal

BEAT CLOSE LOST

Took

1.72

Closed

1.64

CLV

+4.9%

Posted · Thursday 10 September

Braga to Win

Model: 28.6%
Model fair odds: 3.50
Model EV: -0.1%
Engine score: 76
Data held: 3 of 4 · no form

Later · graded Thursday 10 September

Final score 2–1

Close captured: 20m before kick-off

Beat the close and lost. This is what a working process looks like on a single bet: we bought a better number than the market settled on, and the match went the other way. Judge the price over many bets; judge the result over none.

Ljungskile SK v Norrby IF Superettan - Sweden

BEAT CLOSE WON

Took

1.64

Closed

1.60

CLV

+2.5%

Posted · Wednesday 9 September

Over 2.5 Goals

Model: —
Model fair odds: —
Model EV: -3.6%
Engine score: 77
Data held: 3 of 4 · no form

Later · graded Wednesday 9 September

Final score 2–1

Close captured: 20m before kick-off

Chelsea v Leeds United EFL Cup

POOR PRICE WON

Took

1.61

Closed

1.95

CLV

-17.4%

Posted · Wednesday 9 September

Chelsea to Win

Model: 30.5%
Model fair odds: 3.28
Model EV: -1.7%
Engine score: 81
Data held: 4 of 4

Later · graded Wednesday 9 September

Final score 6–3

Close captured: 20m before kick-off

Won at a price worse than the close. A win, and not evidence of anything — the market moved against us after we posted, which is the signal that matters.

Napoli v Arsenal UEFA Champions League

BEAT CLOSE WON

Took

1.75

Closed

1.72

CLV

+1.7%

Posted · Wednesday 9 September

Arsenal to Win

Model: 65.8%
Model fair odds: 1.52
Model EV: +2.5%
Engine score: 83
Data held: 3 of 4 · no form

Later · graded Wednesday 9 September

Final score 0–1

Close captured: 20m before kick-off

Ilves Tampere v Jaro Veikkausliiga - Finland

POOR PRICE LOST

Took

1.68

Closed

1.69

CLV

-0.6%

Posted · Tuesday 8 September

Over 2.5 Goals

Model: —
Model fair odds: —
Model EV: —
Engine score: 73
Data held: 1 of 4 · no form, market consensus, EV

Later · graded Tuesday 8 September

Final score 2–0

Close captured: 20m before kick-off

Crystal Palace v Middlesbrough EFL Cup

POOR PRICE WON

Took

1.60

Closed

1.65

CLV

-3%

Posted · Tuesday 8 September

Over 2.5 Goals

Model: —
Model fair odds: —
Model EV: -4.9%
Engine score: 77
Data held: 4 of 4

Later · graded Tuesday 8 September

Final score 3–0

Close captured: 20m before kick-off

Won at a price worse than the close. A win, and not evidence of anything — the market moved against us after we posted, which is the signal that matters.

Sunderland v Hull City EFL Cup

POOR PRICE WON

Took

1.79

Closed

1.82

CLV

-1.6%

Posted · Tuesday 8 September

Sunderland to Win

Model: 30.5%
Model fair odds: 3.28
Model EV: +0.2%
Engine score: 81
Data held: 4 of 4

Later · graded Tuesday 8 September

Final score 1–0

Close captured: 20m before kick-off

Won at a price worse than the close. A win, and not evidence of anything — the market moved against us after we posted, which is the signal that matters.

Borussia Dortmund v Villarreal UEFA Champions League

BEAT CLOSE WON

Took

1.88

Closed

1.78

CLV

+5.6%

Posted · Tuesday 8 September

Borussia Dortmund to Win

Model: 86.9%
Model fair odds: 1.15
Model EV: -0.9%
Engine score: 85
Data held: 4 of 4

Later · graded Tuesday 8 September

Final score 3–2

Close captured: 20m before kick-off

FC Midtjylland v FC Nordsjaelland Denmark Superliga

BEAT CLOSE WON

Took

1.64

Closed

1.44

CLV

+13.9%

Posted · Monday 7 September

Over 2.5 Goals

Model: —
Model fair odds: —
Model EV: -1.6%
Engine score: 80
Data held: 3 of 4 · no form

Later · graded Monday 7 September

Final score 2–2

Close captured: 20m before kick-off

Deportes Limache v Cobresal Primera División - Chile

BEAT CLOSE WON

Took

1.73

Closed

1.57

CLV

+10.2%

Posted · Monday 7 September

Deportes Limache to Win

Model: 34.3%
Model fair odds: 2.92
Model EV: -2.6%
Engine score: 76
Data held: 3 of 4 · no form

Later · graded Tuesday 8 September

Final score 3–0

Close captured: 20m before kick-off

Brondby IF v Randers FC Denmark Superliga

BEAT CLOSE WON

Took

1.64

Closed

1.62

CLV

+1.2%

Posted · Sunday 6 September

Over 2.5 Goals

Model: —
Model fair odds: —
Model EV: -1.9%
Engine score: 80
Data held: 3 of 4 · no form

Later · graded Sunday 6 September

Final score 0–3

Close captured: 20m before kick-off

Vissel Kobe v V-Varen Nagasaki J League

BEAT CLOSE WON

Took

1.73

Closed

1.65

CLV

+4.8%

Posted · Sunday 6 September

Vissel Kobe to Win

Model: 59%
Model fair odds: 1.69
Model EV: -2.3%
Engine score: 79
Data held: 3 of 4 · no form

Later · graded Sunday 6 September

Final score 3–1

Close captured: 20m before kick-off

Vitória SC v Casa Pia Primeira Liga - Portugal

BEAT CLOSE LOST

Took

1.54

Closed

1.51

CLV

+2%

Posted · Sunday 6 September

Vitória SC to Win

Model: 56.4%
Model fair odds: 1.77
Model EV: -1.5%
Engine score: 84
Data held: 4 of 4

Later · graded Sunday 6 September

Final score 0–0

Close captured: 20m before kick-off

Beat the close and lost. This is what a working process looks like on a single bet: we bought a better number than the market settled on, and the match went the other way. Judge the price over many bets; judge the result over none.

Aberdeen v Kilmarnock Premiership - Scotland

BEAT CLOSE LOST

Took

1.71

Closed

1.68

CLV

+1.8%

Posted · Saturday 5 September

Over 2.5 Goals

Model: —
Model fair odds: —
Model EV: -2.4%
Engine score: 80
Data held: 3 of 4 · no form

Later · graded Saturday 5 September

Final score 0–0

Close captured: 20m before kick-off

Beat the close and lost. This is what a working process looks like on a single bet: we bought a better number than the market settled on, and the match went the other way. Judge the price over many bets; judge the result over none.

Philadelphia Union v CF Montreal MLS

POOR PRICE WON

Took

1.47

Closed

1.49

CLV

-1.3%

Posted · Saturday 5 September

Philadelphia Union to Win

Model: 59.6%
Model fair odds: 1.68
Model EV: -1.1%
Engine score: 83
Data held: 3 of 4 · no form

Later · graded Sunday 6 September

Final score 2–0

Close captured: 20m before kick-off

Won at a price worse than the close. A win, and not evidence of anything — the market moved against us after we posted, which is the signal that matters.

Newcastle United v Bournemouth EPL

POOR PRICE LOST

Took

2.16

Closed

2.20

CLV

-1.8%

Posted · Saturday 5 September

Newcastle United to Win

Model: 56.3%
Model fair odds: 1.78
Model EV: -0.9%
Engine score: 85
Data held: 4 of 4

Later · graded Saturday 5 September

Final score 2–2

Close captured: 20m before kick-off

Piast Gliwice v GKS Katowice Ekstraklasa - Poland

BEAT CLOSE WON

Took

1.71

Closed

1.53

CLV

+11.8%

Posted · Friday 4 September

Over 2.5 Goals

Model: —
Model fair odds: —
Model EV: -3.6%
Engine score: 77
Data held: 3 of 4 · no form

Later · graded Friday 4 September

Final score 3–0

Close captured: 20m before kick-off

Sparta Rotterdam v FC Zwolle Dutch Eredivisie

POOR PRICE LOST

Took

2.00

Closed

2.08

CLV

-3.8%

Posted · Friday 4 September

Sparta Rotterdam to Win

Model: 55.3%
Model fair odds: 1.81
Model EV: +0.1%
Engine score: 82
Data held: 4 of 4

Later · graded Friday 4 September

Final score 2–2

Close captured: 20m before kick-off

Shamrock Rovers v Shelbourne Dublin League of Ireland

BEAT CLOSE LOST

Took

1.77

Closed

1.71

CLV

+3.5%

Posted · Friday 4 September

Shamrock Rovers to Win

Model: 61.4%
Model fair odds: 1.63
Model EV: +0.8%
Engine score: 84
Data held: 3 of 4 · no form

Later · graded Friday 4 September

Final score 0–0

Close captured: 20m before kick-off

Beat the close and lost. This is what a working process looks like on a single bet: we bought a better number than the market settled on, and the match went the other way. Judge the price over many bets; judge the result over none.

Real Sociedad v Celta Vigo La Liga - Spain

BEAT CLOSE LOST

Took

1.95

Closed

1.86

CLV

+4.8%

Posted · Thursday 3 September

Real Sociedad to Win

Model: 49.9%
Model fair odds: 2.00
Model EV: —
Engine score: 74
Data held: 1 of 4 · no form, market consensus, EV

Later · graded Thursday 3 September

Final score 0–0

Close captured: 20m before kick-off

Beat the close and lost. This is what a working process looks like on a single bet: we bought a better number than the market settled on, and the match went the other way. Judge the price over many bets; judge the result over none.

Hibernian v Hearts Premiership - Scotland

BEAT CLOSE WON

Took

1.84

Closed

1.77

CLV

+4%

Posted · Thursday 3 September

Over 2.5 Goals

Model: —
Model fair odds: —
Model EV: -3.8%
Engine score: 71
Data held: 3 of 4 · no form

Later · graded Thursday 3 September

Final score 1–3

Close captured: 20m before kick-off

Palermo v Mantova Coppa Italia

POOR PRICE WON

Took

1.67

Closed

2.16

CLV

-22.7%

Posted · Thursday 3 September

Palermo to Win

Model: 46.7%
Model fair odds: 2.14
Model EV: -1.9%
Engine score: 76
Data held: 3 of 4 · no form

Later · graded Thursday 3 September

Final score 5–2

Close captured: 20m before kick-off

Won at a price worse than the close. A win, and not evidence of anything — the market moved against us after we posted, which is the signal that matters.

Anderlecht v KV Kortrijk Belgium First Div

BEAT CLOSE WON

Took

1.50

Closed

1.44

CLV

+4.2%

Posted · Thursday 3 September

Anderlecht to Win

Model: 41.9%
Model fair odds: 2.39
Model EV: -2.4%
Engine score: 76
Data held: 3 of 4 · no form

Later · graded Thursday 3 September

Final score 1–0

Close captured: 20m before kick-off

Falkirk F.C. v Rangers Premiership - Scotland

BEAT CLOSE WON

Took

1.64

Closed

1.57

CLV

+4.5%

Posted · Wednesday 2 September

Rangers to Win

Model: 25.8%
Model fair odds: 3.88
Model EV: -2.9%
Engine score: 76
Data held: 3 of 4 · no form

Later · graded Wednesday 2 September

Final score 1–2

Close captured: 20m before kick-off

Yokohama F Marinos v Kyoto Purple Sanga J League

POOR PRICE LOST

Took

2.06

Closed

2.10

CLV

-1.9%

Posted · Wednesday 2 September

Yokohama F Marinos to Win

Model: 55.8%
Model fair odds: 1.79
Model EV: +0.1%
Engine score: 77
Data held: 3 of 4 · no form

Later · graded Wednesday 2 September

Final score 1–1

Close captured: 20m before kick-off

Exeter City v Barnet League 2

POOR PRICE LOST

Took

1.75

Closed

1.79

CLV

-2.2%

Posted · Tuesday 1 September

Over 2.5 Goals

Model: —
Model fair odds: —
Model EV: -2.5%
Engine score: 73
Data held: 3 of 4 · no form

Later · graded Tuesday 1 September

Final score 1–1

Close captured: 20m before kick-off

Salford City v Newport County League 2

BEAT CLOSE WON

Took

1.60

Closed

1.50

CLV

+6.7%

Posted · Tuesday 1 September

Salford City to Win

Model: 45%
Model fair odds: 2.22
Model EV: -1.9%
Engine score: 76
Data held: 3 of 4 · no form

Later · graded Tuesday 1 September

Final score 2–1

Close captured: 20m before kick-off

Sheffield United v Bolton Wanderers Championship

BEAT CLOSE WON

Took

1.75

Closed

1.71

CLV

+2.3%

Posted · Tuesday 1 September

Sheffield United to Win

Model: 44.2%
Model fair odds: 2.26
Model EV: +0.3%
Engine score: 81
Data held: 3 of 4 · no form

Later · graded Tuesday 1 September

Final score 3–2

Close captured: 20m before kick-off

Puebla v Santos Laguna Liga MX

NO CLOSE PENDING

Took

1.76

Closed

—

CLV

—

Posted · Saturday 22 August

Over 2.5 Goals

Model: —
Model fair odds: —
Model EV: +0.1%
Engine score: 78
Data held: 3 of 4 · no form

Later

not graded yet

Close captured: no closing line captured

Los Angeles FC v Portland Timbers MLS

NO CLOSE PENDING

Took

1.66

Closed

—

CLV

—

Posted · Saturday 22 August

Los Angeles FC to Win

Model: 63.9%
Model fair odds: 1.56
Model EV: -4%
Engine score: 81
Data held: 3 of 4 · no form

Later

not graded yet

Close captured: no closing line captured

Stockport County FC v Blackpool League 1

NO CLOSE PENDING

Took

1.60

Closed

—

CLV

—

Posted · Saturday 22 August

Stockport County FC to Win

Model: 45%
Model fair odds: 2.22
Model EV: -1.7%
Engine score: 83
Data held: 3 of 4 · no form

Later

not graded yet

Close captured: no closing line captured

FC Juárez v América Liga MX

POOR PRICE WON

Took

1.81

Closed

1.90

CLV

-4.7%

Posted · Friday 21 August

Over 2.5 Goals

Model: —
Model fair odds: —
Model EV: +0.2%
Engine score: 78
Data held: 3 of 4 · no form

Later · graded Saturday 22 August

Final score 1–2

Close captured: 20m before kick-off

Won at a price worse than the close. A win, and not evidence of anything — the market moved against us after we posted, which is the signal that matters.

Dundalk v Galway United League of Ireland

POOR PRICE LOST

Took

1.81

Closed

1.98

CLV

-8.6%

Posted · Friday 21 August

Dundalk to Win

Model: 65.7%
Model fair odds: 1.52
Model EV: -1.9%
Engine score: 77
Data held: 3 of 4 · no form

Later · graded Friday 21 August

Final score 1–2

Close captured: 20m before kick-off

Marseille v Strasbourg Ligue 1 - France

BEAT CLOSE WON

Took

1.81

Closed

1.80

CLV

+0.6%

Posted · Friday 21 August

Marseille to Win

Model: 61.4%
Model fair odds: 1.63
Model EV: -1.9%
Engine score: 77
Data held: 3 of 4 · no form

Later · graded Friday 21 August

Final score 4–0

Close captured: 20m before kick-off

Cerro Porteño v Palmeiras-SP Copa Libertadores

BEAT CLOSE WON

Took

1.57

Closed

1.53

CLV

+2.6%

Posted · Wednesday 19 August

Under 2.5 Goals

Model: —
Model fair odds: —
Model EV: —
Engine score: 77
Data held: 1 of 4 · no form, market consensus, EV

Later · graded Thursday 20 August

Final score 0–1

Close captured: 20m before kick-off

Colorado Rapids v Los Angeles FC MLS

POOR PRICE LOST

Took

1.76

Closed

1.78

CLV

-1.1%

Posted · Wednesday 19 August

Over 2.5 Goals

Model: —
Model fair odds: —
Model EV: +0.2%
Engine score: 78
Data held: 3 of 4 · no form

Later · graded Thursday 20 August

Final score 1–0

Close captured: 20m before kick-off

ŠK Slovan Bratislava v NK Celje UEFA Champions League Qualification

POOR PRICE LOST

Took

1.76

Closed

1.89

CLV

-6.9%

Posted · Wednesday 19 August

ŠK Slovan Bratislava to Win

Model: 63.6%
Model fair odds: 1.57
Model EV: -1.2%
Engine score: 79
Data held: 3 of 4 · no form

Later · graded Thursday 20 August

Final score 1–1

Close captured: 20m before kick-off

Shanghai SIPG FC v Dalian Yingbo Super League - China

BEAT CLOSE LOST

Took

1.52

Closed

1.39

CLV

+9.4%

Posted · Wednesday 19 August

Shanghai SIPG FC to Win

Model: 75.9%
Model fair odds: 1.32
Model EV: -4.1%
Engine score: 81
Data held: 3 of 4 · no form

Later · graded Wednesday 19 August

Final score 1–1

Close captured: 20m before kick-off

Beat the close and lost. This is what a working process looks like on a single bet: we bought a better number than the market settled on, and the match went the other way. Judge the price over many bets; judge the result over none.

Brondby IF v SonderjyskE Denmark Superliga

BEAT CLOSE WON

Took

1.65

Closed

1.53

CLV

+7.8%

Posted · Monday 17 August

Over 2.5 Goals

Model: —
Model fair odds: —
Model EV: -1.3%
Engine score: 73
Data held: 3 of 4 · no form

Later · graded Monday 17 August

Final score 3–2

Close captured: 20m before kick-off

Pachuca v Puebla Liga MX

POOR PRICE LOST

Took

1.54

Closed

1.63

CLV

-5.5%

Posted · Monday 17 August

Pachuca to Win

Model: 58.7%
Model fair odds: 1.70
Model EV: -2.8%
Engine score: 76
Data held: 3 of 4 · no form

Later · graded Tuesday 18 August

Final score 2–3

Close captured: 20m before kick-off

Internacional v Remo Brazil Série A

BEAT CLOSE LOST

Took

1.61

Closed

1.51

CLV

+6.6%

Posted · Monday 17 August

Internacional to Win

Model: 64.1%
Model fair odds: 1.56
Model EV: -1.7%
Engine score: 79
Data held: 4 of 4

Later · graded Tuesday 18 August

Final score 1–1

Close captured: 20m before kick-off

Beat the close and lost. This is what a working process looks like on a single bet: we bought a better number than the market settled on, and the match went the other way. Judge the price over many bets; judge the result over none.

ADO Den Haag v Groningen Dutch Eredivisie

POOR PRICE WON

Took

1.74

Closed

1.76

CLV

-1.1%

Posted · Sunday 16 August

Over 2.5 Goals

Model: —
Model fair odds: —
Model EV: +0.6%
Engine score: 78
Data held: 4 of 4

Later · graded Sunday 16 August

Final score 1–4

Close captured: capture time not recorded

Won at a price worse than the close. A win, and not evidence of anything — the market moved against us after we posted, which is the signal that matters.

Girona FC v Leganés La Liga 2 - Spain

BEAT CLOSE LOST

Took

1.66

Closed

1.62

CLV

+2.5%

Posted · Sunday 16 August

Girona FC to Win

Model: 44.3%
Model fair odds: 2.26
Model EV: +0.2%
Engine score: 81
Data held: 3 of 4 · no form

Later · graded Sunday 16 August

Final score 1–1

Close captured: 20m before kick-off

Beat the close and lost. This is what a working process looks like on a single bet: we bought a better number than the market settled on, and the match went the other way. Judge the price over many bets; judge the result over none.

Ajax v Heerenveen Dutch Eredivisie

POOR PRICE LOST

Took

1.49

Closed

1.50

CLV

-0.7%

Posted · Sunday 16 August

Ajax to Win

Model: 77%
Model fair odds: 1.30
Model EV: -1.8%
Engine score: 87
Data held: 4 of 4

Later · graded Sunday 16 August

Final score 2–2

Close captured: capture time not recorded