Backtest lab
Held-out walk-forward validation. A historical simulation on seasons the model was never tuned on — not the live track record.
What this is, and what it is not. Parameters were frozen on training data only,
then replayed forward over untouched later seasons using real recorded bookmaker odds. Fixtures without
real recorded odds are excluded, never synthesized. These are simulated decisions: they carry no CLV
receipts and belong to no customer. The calls the product actually published are on the
track record, and the two are never averaged together.
No held-out backtest is currently published
The walk-forward report is generated by an offline validation run; none is held in the current build.
The live track record grades every published call against the closing line, and the calibration curve on that page is built from settled scanned fixtures.
Open the track record
ledger compiled just now · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.