Value Bets — Positive Edge vs the Fair Line
Every fixture on the snapshot where the best captured price sits above the margin-free fair line — 62 right now. A factual price view; research, not instructions.
| Match | Side | Best price | Fair line | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Bristol City v Walsall
 EFL |
Walsall | 8.20 | 6.80 | +20.9% |
Nashville SC v Atlanta United FC
 MLS |
Atlanta United FC | 8.00 | 6.94 | +15.4% |
| Tranmere Rovers v Rochdale
EFL |
Rochdale | 2.80 | 2.43 | +15.1% |
| Derby County v Lincoln City
EFL |
Lincoln City | 4.40 | 3.88 | +13.5% |
| Celtic v Dundee FC
PS |
Dundee FC | 13.00 | 11.63 | +12.1% |
| Örgryte IS v Djurgardens IF
AS |
Örgryte IS | 7.50 | 6.71 | +12% |
| Corinthians v Remo
BSA |
Remo | 7.20 | 6.54 | +10% |
| Falkenbergs FF v Helsingborgs IF
SS |
Draw | 3.70 | 3.37 | +9.9% |
| Chapecoense v Flamengo
BSA |
Chapecoense | 7.50 | 6.85 | +9.4% |
Bodø/Glimt v Fredrikstad FK
 EN |
Fredrikstad FK | 15.00 | 13.70 | +9.2% |
| Bahia v Chapecoense
BSA |
Chapecoense | 7.50 | 6.90 | +8.5% |
| Hammarby IF v Degerfors IF
AS |
Degerfors IF | 11.00 | 10.10 | +8.4% |
| Mjällby AIF v Västerås SK
AS |
Västerås SK | 4.25 | 3.94 | +7.8% |
| Aberdeen v Hearts
PS |
Hearts | 1.94 | 1.80 | +7.6% |
| Halmstads BK v BK Hacken
AS |
Halmstads BK | 5.50 | 5.18 | +6.3% |
| Stockport County FC v Doncaster Rovers
EFL |
Doncaster Rovers | 4.40 | 4.15 | +6% |
| Fortaleza v Grêmio Novorizontino
BSB |
Draw | 3.20 | 3.03 | +5.6% |
| Monterrey v Santos Laguna
LM |
Santos Laguna | 5.80 | 5.52 | +5.1% |
| Kalmar FF v Malmo FF
AS |
Kalmar FF | 2.85 | 2.71 | +5.1% |
| Independiente Santa Fe v Caracas FC
CS |
Caracas FC | 9.00 | 8.62 | +4.8% |
| FC Copenhagen v Lyngby
DS |
Lyngby | 7.50 | 7.14 | +4.8% |
| St Johnstone v Kilmarnock
PS |
St Johnstone | 2.38 | 2.28 | +4.4% |
| Botafogo v Santos
BSA |
Santos | 3.85 | 3.70 | +4% |
| Middlesbrough v Wrexham AFC
EFL |
Middlesbrough | 1.97 | 1.90 | +3.8% |
| Clube de Regatas Brasil v Nautico PE
BSB |
Draw | 3.45 | 3.33 | +3.6% |
| Randers FC v Silkeborg IF
DS |
Silkeborg IF | 4.50 | 4.37 | +2.9% |
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC v Zhejiang
 SLC |
Zhejiang | 2.63 | 2.56 | +2.6% |
| AGF Aarhus v Brondby IF
DS |
AGF Aarhus | 2.40 | 2.34 | +2.6% |
| Viking FK v Sandefjord
EN |
Sandefjord | 9.40 | 9.17 | +2.5% |
| St. Louis City SC v Sporting Kansas City
MLS |
Sporting Kansas City | 6.80 | 6.67 | +2% |
| Sporting Cristal v Bragantino-SP
CS |
Sporting Cristal | 3.45 | 3.38 | +2% |
| HamKam v Tromso
EN |
Draw | 3.30 | 3.25 | +1.8% |
| Bristol Rovers v Peterborough United
EFL |
Bristol Rovers | 2.65 | 2.60 | +1.8% |
| Fleetwood Town v Chesterfield FC
EFL |
Draw | 3.50 | 3.44 | +1.8% |
| Vitoria v Vasco da Gama
BSA |
Vasco da Gama | 3.40 | 3.34 | +1.7% |
| HJK Helsinki v VPS Vaasa
VF |
VPS Vaasa | 3.65 | 3.58 | +1.7% |
| FC Luzern v FC Thun
SS |
Draw | 4.10 | 4.03 | +1.7% |
| Barnsley v Wigan Athletic
EFL |
Wigan Athletic | 3.05 | 3.00 | +1.6% |
| Seattle Sounders FC v Portland Timbers
MLS |
Draw | 5.30 | 5.24 | +1.4% |
| TPS Turku v Ilves Tampere
VF |
TPS Turku | 2.80 | 2.76 | +1.4% |
| Atletico Mineiro v Bahia
BSA |
Draw | 3.55 | 3.51 | +1.3% |
| Bromley FC v Reading
EFL |
Bromley FC | 2.55 | 2.52 | +1.3% |
| Chicago Fire v Vancouver Whitecaps FC
MLS |
Draw | 3.95 | 3.91 | +1.2% |
Platense v Union Santa Fe
 PDA |
Draw | 2.90 | 2.87 | +1.2% |
| IFK Norrkoping v Sandvikens IF
SS |
Sandvikens IF | 5.50 | 5.43 | +1.1% |
| Velez Sarsfield BA v Instituto de Córdoba
PDA |
Instituto de Córdoba | 4.10 | 4.07 | +1.1% |
| LA Galaxy v Los Angeles FC
MLS |
Draw | 3.90 | 3.86 | +0.9% |
| Hibernian v Motherwell
PS |
Draw | 3.60 | 3.57 | +0.9% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers v Port Vale
EFL |
Port Vale | 8.50 | 8.40 | +0.9% |
| Yunnan Yukun v Shanghai SIPG FC
SLC |
Draw | 4.20 | 4.17 | +0.8% |
| Sao Paulo v Atletico Paranaense
BSA |
Draw | 3.40 | 3.38 | +0.8% |
| Gimnasia Mendoza v Central Córdoba
PDA |
Gimnasia Mendoza | 1.87 | 1.86 | +0.8% |
| Henan FC v Qingdao Hainiu FC
SLC |
Draw | 4.60 | 4.57 | +0.6% |
| América Mineiro v Ceará
BSB |
América Mineiro | 2.63 | 2.62 | +0.6% |
| Racing Club v Gimnasia La Plata
PDA |
Gimnasia La Plata | 5.25 | 5.21 | +0.6% |
| England v Argentina
FWC |
Draw | 3.00 | 2.99 | +0.5% |
| Mirassol v Grêmio
BSA |
Mirassol | 2.08 | 2.07 | +0.5% |
| Vålerenga v Aalesund
EN |
Aalesund | 4.40 | 4.39 | +0.4% |
| IFK Goteborg v IF Brommapojkarna
AS |
IF Brommapojkarna | 3.90 | 3.89 | +0.3% |
| CF Montreal v Toronto FC
MLS |
Toronto FC | 3.65 | 3.65 | +0.1% |
| Beijing FC v Liaoning Tieren FC
SLC |
Draw | 5.50 | 5.49 | +0.1% |
| Cardiff City v Swindon Town
EFL |
Swindon Town | 6.80 | 6.80 | +0.1% |
Why closing-line value? CLV is the professional benchmark for
whether an edge process is real — it converges in hundreds of data points, not thousands. See the
public ledger and the interactive
opportunity board.
Frequently asked questions
What is a value bet?
A price that sits above the fair (margin-free) probability of the outcome — the bookmaker is offering longer odds than the event’s estimated chance justifies. Value is a statement about a price, never a promise about a result: any single bet can lose.
How is the fair line calculated?
The bookmaker margin is removed (devigging) from captured 1X2 prices, anchored to a sharp book where one is held in the snapshot. The result is a margin-free probability for each outcome, timestamped.
Does a positive edge mean the bet wins?
No. Edge is expected value over many decisions, not a prediction of one result. The honest way to judge an edge process is closing-line value — which this site publishes for every call, win or lose.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.