England5 League Cup fixtures on the current market snapshot. Model probabilities are shown beside the real prices they were compared against, and every published call for this competition is in the graded ledger below.
5 Upcoming
Model Strength
Not enough data
the engine has scored 0 fixture(s) here; 3 are needed
Market Efficiency
95.8%
Very Efficient
Avg. Model Edge
Not enough data
the model priced 0 fixture(s) here; 3 are needed
ROI · published
+12.5%
6 settled
Fixtures Analysed
84
Held
Next fixtures
5 pricedModel prob.
Best oddsEdge
Tue 15 Dec18:00
Manchester City
Bradford City
———
1.13
Betfair Exchange
—
Tue 15 Dec18:00
Liverpool
Bournemouth
———
1.60Betfair Exchange
—
Tue 15 Dec18:00
Crystal Palace
Sunderland
———
2.08Betfair Exchange
—
Wed 16 Dec20:00
Fleetwood Town
Everton
———
12.50
Grosvenor
—
Wed 16 Dec20:00
Liverpool
Bournemouth
———
1.53Grosvenor
—
Model vs market
by month
Model win %
Market implied %
Mean model and devigged market probability
on the home win, by month, over 2333 stored fixtures —
6 months carry a model sample, 6 a complete three-way price.
A month below the sample floor is a gap, never a line drawn through it.
Market movers
recorded moves
1
Crystal Palace
Sunderland
Crystal Palace1X2
1.90 → 2.08
+9.5%Drifting
2
Liverpool
Bournemouth
Bournemouth1X2
6.00 → 6.50
+8.3%Drifting
3
Crystal Palace
Sunderland
Sunderland1X2
3.90 → 3.70
-5.1%Shortening
4
Liverpool
Bournemouth
Draw1X2
4.00 → 4.20
+5.0%Drifting
5
Manchester City
Bradford City
Manchester City1X2
1.10 → 1.13
+2.7%Drifting
Crystal Palace
Sunderland
Crystal Palace1X2
1.90 → 2.08
+9.5%Drifting
2
Liverpool
Bournemouth
Bournemouth1X2
6.00 → 6.50
+8.3%Drifting
3
Crystal Palace
Sunderland
Sunderland1X2
3.90 → 3.70
-5.1%Shortening
4
Liverpool
Bournemouth
Draw1X2
4.00 → 4.20
+5.0%Drifting
5
Manchester City
Bradford City
Manchester City1X2
1.10 → 1.13
+2.7%Drifting
Key league stats
per game · 2026/273.07
▼ 0.0
Goals per match
over 84 match · vs all competitions
—
Shots per team
match statistics are stored for 0 of 84 finished fixtures
—
On target per team
match statistics are stored for 0 of 84 finished fixtures
—
xG per team
match statistics are stored for 0 of 84 finished fixtures
56%
▼ -1.6%
Over 2.5 goals
over 84 match · vs all competitions
56%
▲ +1.3%
Both teams score
over 84 match · vs all competitions
Model vs market
this competitionNot enough priced fixtures to compare
the model priced 0 fixture(s) here
Top teams
model edgeNo club has a model edge on this board
the model has priced too few fixtures in this competition
Latest insights
from the stored data
Goals trend56% of the 84 finished fixtures stored for this competition went over 2.5 goals.
Home advantageThe home side has won 40.5% of the 84 finished fixtures stored here, and 19% were drawn.
5
Upcoming
on the snapshot
3.17
Goals / match
last 12 results
58%
BTTS
7 of 12
58%
Over 2.5
7 of 12
Upcoming fixtures
Upcoming season fixtures
-
Tue 15 Dec18:00in 42dnot modelledmodel building—
-
Tue 15 Dec18:00in 42dnot modelledmodel building—
-
Tue 15 Dec18:00in 42dnot modelledmodel building—
-
Wed 16 Dec20:00in 44dnot modelledmodel building—
-
Wed 16 Dec20:00in 44dnot modelledmodel building—
League table
No league table for this tie
EFL Cup is a knockout competition, so a league position would belong to a different competition entirely
Recent form and the head-to-head record are shown instead.
Teams this season (8)
League data: delayed · collected 3 d ago
Explore
Frequently asked questions
Which EFL Cup fixtures are coming up?
5 EFL Cup fixtures are in the current snapshot, starting with Manchester City v Bradford City on Tue 15 Dec, 18:00 UK time.