MC

Manchester City

EPL·1 of 20 in the table·21 points·Etihad Stadium

Next match Manchester City v Brighton and Hove Albion Wed 28 Oct, 19:30

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Manchester City — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

4 Upcoming8 Results held

Model Strength

Not enough data

the model has priced 0 of this club's fixtures; 3 are needed

Avg. Model Edge

Not enough data

0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price

Market Efficiency

98.4%

Very Efficient

ROI · published

Not enough data

0 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed

Model Rank

3rd

of 20 ranked

Fixtures Analysed

8

Held

Next fixtures

4 priced

Wed 28 Oct19:30 Brighton and Hove Albion H — 1.68Casumo — Thu 29 Oct20:00 Paris Saint Germain H — 1.53Casumo — Sat 31 Oct15:00 Brighton and Hove Albion H — 1.70Betfred — Wed 4 Nov20:00 RB Leipzig A — 1.60Coral —

Form

last 6

LWWWWW 15 pts from 6

A Aston Villa 1–2 -1.6

H Ipswich 3–2 +0.7

A Liverpool 3–0 +2.0

H Sunderland 5–3 +0.6

A Manchester United 1–0 +2.0

H Coventry 1–0 +0.7

The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected

Points taken (8 matches) Model expected (8 priced) Ahead Behind

+8.0 points against the model's expectation over the 8 fixtures it priced

Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition

Strengths

Shots on target 5.5 #1 of 20

Possession 64.3% #1 of 20

Points over model expectation 8 #1 of 20

Goals scored 2.5 #2 of 20

Attack

per game, with rank

Goals scored 2.5 #2 of 20

Expected goals 2.1 #2 of 20

Shots 14.6 #6 of 20

On target 5.5 #1 of 20

Defence

per game, with rank

Goals conceded 1.13 #8 of 20

Expected against 0.9 #2 of 20

Shots faced 11 #6 of 20

Clean sheets 3 #8 of 20

Best model edges

on this club

No priced edge on this club

an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed

33%

Scored before half time

of 21 goals

24%

Scored from 75 minutes

of 21 goals

0%

From the penalty spot

of 21 goals

13%

Conceded from 75 minutes

of 8 conceded

From the provider's own goal events across 8 stored fixtures (29 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club

Not enough priced fixtures

the model priced 0 fixture(s) here

EPL EPL 4 fixtures on the snapshot · full table

#1

Position

21

Points from 8 played

+11

Goal difference

#	Team	Pl	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	8	11	21
2	Arsenal	8	8	21
3	Brighton	7	18	16

Manchester City and its immediate neighbours in the stored table.

Upcoming fixtures

1. Wed 28 Oct19:30in 29h 16m
   Manchester City Brighton and Hove Albion

   EFL

   Round of 16
   not modelled
   model building
   —
2. Thu 29 Oct20:00in 2d
   Manchester City Paris Saint Germain

   UCL

   League Stage - 3
   not modelled
   model building
   —
3. Sat 31 Oct15:00in 4d
   Manchester City Brighton and Hove Albion

   EPL

   Regular Season - 9
   not modelled
   model building
   —
4. Wed 4 Nov20:00in 8d
   RB Leipzig Manchester City

   UCL

   League Stage - 4
   not modelled
   model building
   —

Season statistics (stored · 2026)

Squad (stored · 2026 · 26 players)

Player	Age	No.
Goalkeepers (3)
GG. Donnarumma	26	1
MM. Bettinelli	33	13
GG. Rulli	33	28
Defenders (10)
RRúben Dias	29	3
KK. Braithwaite	17	5
MM. Guéhi	25	6
RR. Aït-Nouri	24	21
VVitor Nunes	19	22
JJ. Gvardiol	23	24
MMatheus Nunes	27	27
NN. O'Reilly	20	33
AA. Khusanov	21	45
RR. Lewis	21	82
Midfielders (10)
EE. Anderson	23	5
II. Ndiaye	25	7
RR. McAidoo	17	7
FF. Samba	16	8
MM. Kovačić	31	8
RR. Cherki	22	10
JJ. Doku	23	11
EE. Fernández	25	17
AA. Bouaddi	18	32
PP. Foden	25	47
Forwards (3)
EE. Haaland	25	9
AAllan	21	37
AA. Semenyo	25	42

Transfers (last 10 recorded)

League position (stored standings)

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