A

Arsenal

EPL·2 of 20 in the table·21 points·Emirates Stadium

Next match Fleetwood Town v Arsenal Tue 27 Oct, 20:00

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Arsenal — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

5 Upcoming8 Results held

Model Strength

71

Strong

Avg. Model Edge

Not enough data

0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price

Market Efficiency

98.4%

Very Efficient

ROI · published

Not enough data

2 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed

Model Rank

2nd

of 20 ranked

Fixtures Analysed

8

Held

Next fixtures

5 priced

Tue 27 Oct20:00 Fleetwood Town A — 1.13Betfair Exchange — Wed 28 Oct15:00 Fleetwood Town A — 1.06Sky Bet — Wed 28 Oct20:00 Benfica H — 1.19Betfair Exchange — Sun 1 Nov16:30 Liverpool A — 2.42Betfair Exchange — Wed 4 Nov20:00 Slavia Praha A — 1.33Coral —

Form

last 6

WWWLWW 15 pts from 6

H Everton 2–0 +0.8

A Nottingham Forest 1–0 +1.2

H Leeds 2–1 +0.8

A Brighton 0–3 -1.7

A Sunderland 2–0 +1.1

H Chelsea 2–1 +1.3

The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected

Points taken (8 matches) Model expected (7 priced) Ahead Behind

+7.7 points against the model's expectation over the 7 fixtures it priced

Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition

Strengths

Goals conceded 0.63 #1 of 20

Expected goals against 0.52 #1 of 20

Clean sheets 5 #1 of 20

Points over model expectation 7.7 #2 of 20

Attack

per game, with rank

Goals scored 1.63 #5 of 20

Expected goals 1.71 #6 of 20

Shots 13.4 #11 of 20

On target 4.4 #9 of 20

Defence

per game, with rank

Goals conceded 0.63 #1 of 20

Expected against 0.52 #1 of 20

Shots faced 10.8 #3 of 20

Clean sheets 5 #1 of 20

Best model edges

on this club

No priced edge on this club

an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed

31%

Scored before half time

of 13 goals

15%

Scored from 75 minutes

of 13 goals

8%

From the penalty spot

of 13 goals

0%

Conceded from 75 minutes

of 6 conceded

From the provider's own goal events across 8 stored fixtures (19 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club

Not enough priced fixtures

the model priced 0 fixture(s) here

EPL EPL 5 fixtures on the snapshot · full table

#2

Position

21

Points from 8 played

+8

Goal difference

#	Team	Pl	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	8	11	21
2	Arsenal	8	8	21
3	Brighton	7	18	16
4	Chelsea	8	2	13

Arsenal and its immediate neighbours in the stored table.

Upcoming fixtures

1. Tue 27 Oct20:00in 17h 31m
   Fleetwood Town Arsenal

   EFL

   Round of 16
   not modelled
   model building
   —
2. Wed 28 Oct15:00in 36h 31m
   Fleetwood Town Arsenal

   EFL
   not modelled
   model building
   —
3. Wed 28 Oct20:00in 41h 31m
   Arsenal Benfica

   UCL
   not modelled
   model building
   —
4. Sun 1 Nov16:30in 6d
   Liverpool Arsenal

   EPL
   not modelled
   model building
   —
5. Wed 4 Nov20:00in 9d
   Slavia Praha Arsenal

   UCL
   not modelled
   model building
   —

Graded calls — from the public ledger

Explore