C

Chelsea

EPL·4 of 20 in the table·6 points·Stamford Bridge

Next match Chelsea v Hull City Sat 12 Sept, 15:00

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Chelsea — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

2 Upcoming3 Results held

Model Strength

72

Strong

Avg. Model Edge

Not enough data

0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price

Market Efficiency

99%

Very Efficient

ROI · published

Not enough data

1 settled call on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed

Model Rank

1st

of 9 ranked

Fixtures Analysed

3

Held

Next fixtures

2 priced

Sat 12 Sept15:00 Hull City H — 1.25888sport — Fri 18 Sept20:00 Brentford A — 2.50Grosvenor —

Form

last 3

LWW 6 pts from 3

A Arsenal 1–2 -1.0

H Brighton 4–3 +0.8

A Fulham 3–2 +1.3

The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected

Points taken (3 matches) Model expected (3 priced) Ahead Behind

+1.1 points against the model's expectation over the 3 fixtures it priced

Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition

Strengths

Points over model expectation 1.1 #1 of 9

Goals scored 2.67 #2 of 20

Shots 16 #6 of 20

Shots on target 5.7 #6 of 20

Weaknesses

Shots faced 14.7 #14 of 20

Goals conceded 2.33 #18 of 20

Possession 36.3% #19 of 20

Clean sheets 0 #20 of 20

Attack

per game, with rank

Goals scored 2.67 #2 of 20

Expected goals not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Shots 16 #6 of 20

On target 5.7 #6 of 20

Defence

per game, with rank

Goals conceded 2.33 #18 of 20

Expected against not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Shots faced 14.7 #14 of 20

Clean sheets 0 #20 of 20

Best model edges

on this club

No priced edge on this club

an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed

67%

Scored before half time

of 9 goals

0%

Scored from 75 minutes

of 9 goals

0%

From the penalty spot

of 9 goals

17%

Conceded from 75 minutes

of 6 conceded

From the provider's own goal events across 3 stored fixtures (15 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club

Not enough priced fixtures

the model priced 0 fixture(s) here

EPL EPL 2 fixtures on the snapshot · full table

#4

Position

6

Points from 3 played

+1

Goal difference

#	Team	Pl	GD	Pts
2	Arsenal	3	5	9
3	Hull City	3	3	7
4	Chelsea	3	1	6
5	Brentford	3	3	5
6	Liverpool	3	2	5

Chelsea and its immediate neighbours in the stored table.

Upcoming fixtures

1. Sat 12 Sept15:00in 19h 26m
   Chelsea Hull City

   EPL

   Regular Season - 4
   not modelled
   model building
   —
2. Fri 18 Sept20:00in 7d
   Brentford Chelsea

   EPL

   Regular Season - 5
   not modelled
   model building
   —

Season statistics (stored · 2026)

Squad (stored · 2026 · 30 players)

Player	Age	No.
Goalkeepers (4)
EE. Martínez	33	1
TT. Sharman-Lowe	22	28
MM. Penders	20	39
GG. Słonina	21	44
Defenders (9)
MM. Palestra	20	2
WW. Fofana	25	3
MM. Lacroix	25	5
LL. Colwill	22	6
MM. Gusto	22	27
PPep Chavarría	27	29
AA. Anselmino	20	30
JJoshua Kofi Acheampong	19	34
DDenner	18	—
Midfielders (10)
VV. Barco	21	4
RR. Watson	16	6
PPedro Neto	26	7
JJ. Henderson	35	14
JJ. Hato	19	21
GGeovany Tcherno Quenda	19	23
RR. James	26	24
MM. Caicedo	24	25
RR. Lavia	21	45
MM. Eboue	16	72
Forwards (7)
JJoão Pedro	24	9
CC. Palmer	23	10
JJ. Bynoe-Gittens	21	11
MM. Rogers	23	17
DD. Welbeck	35	18
EE. Emegha	22	22
EEstêvão	18	41

Transfers (last 10 recorded)

League position (stored standings)

Graded calls — from the public ledger

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