C

Chelsea

EPL·4 of 20 in the table·13 points·Stamford Bridge

Next match Chelsea v AS Roma Wed 28 Oct, 17:45

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Chelsea — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

3 Upcoming8 Results held

Model Strength

66.2

Strong

Avg. Model Edge

Not enough data

0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price

Market Efficiency

98.7%

Very Efficient

ROI · published

Not enough data

1 settled call on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed

Model Rank

1st

of 20 ranked

Fixtures Analysed

8

Held

Next fixtures

3 priced

Wed 28 Oct17:45 AS Roma H — 1.10Betfair Exchange — Wed 28 Oct20:00 Liverpool A — 2.78Betfair Exchange — Sat 31 Oct12:30 Manchester United H — 1.93Casumo —

Form

last 6

LWWLDL 7 pts from 6

H Tottenham 0–2 -2.0

A Everton 2–0 +1.5

H Bournemouth 5–1 +0.7

A Brentford 0–3 -1.5

H Hull City 2–2 -1.5

A Arsenal 1–2 -1.0

The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected

Points taken (8 matches) Model expected (8 priced) Ahead Behind

-1.8 points against the model's expectation over the 8 fixtures it priced

Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition

Strengths

Shots on target 5.4 #2 of 20

Goals scored 2.13 #3 of 20

Expected goals against 1.13 #5 of 20

Weaknesses

Possession 45.3% #16 of 20

Points over model expectation -1.8 #17 of 20

Goals conceded 1.88 #18 of 20

Clean sheets 1 #18 of 20

Attack

per game, with rank

Goals scored 2.13 #3 of 20

Expected goals 1.69 #8 of 20

Shots 13.4 #12 of 20

On target 5.4 #2 of 20

Defence

per game, with rank

Goals conceded 1.88 #18 of 20

Expected against 1.13 #5 of 20

Shots faced 12.5 #8 of 20

Clean sheets 1 #18 of 20

Best model edges

on this club

No priced edge on this club

an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed

47%

Scored before half time

of 19 goals

11%

Scored from 75 minutes

of 19 goals

0%

From the penalty spot

of 19 goals

31%

Conceded from 75 minutes

of 13 conceded

From the provider's own goal events across 8 stored fixtures (32 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club

Not enough priced fixtures

the model priced 0 fixture(s) here

EPL EPL 3 fixtures on the snapshot · full table

#4

Position

13

Points from 8 played

+2

Goal difference

#	Team	Pl	GD	Pts
2	Arsenal	8	8	21
3	Brighton	7	18	16
4	Chelsea	8	2	13
5	Liverpool	7	1	12
6	Aston Villa	8	-3	11

Chelsea and its immediate neighbours in the stored table.

Upcoming fixtures

1. Wed 28 Oct17:45in 41h 44m
   Chelsea AS Roma

   UCL

   League Stage - 3
   not modelled
   model building
   —
2. Wed 28 Oct20:00in 43h 59m
   Liverpool Chelsea

   EFL

   Round of 16
   not modelled
   model building
   —
3. Sat 31 Oct12:30in 5d
   Chelsea Manchester United

   EPL

   Regular Season - 9
   not modelled
   model building
   —

Season statistics (stored · 2026)

Squad (stored · 2026 · 31 players)

Player	Age	No.
Goalkeepers (4)
EE. Martínez	33	1
TT. Sharman-Lowe	22	28
MM. Penders	20	39
GG. Słonina	21	44
Defenders (10)
MM. Palestra	20	2
WW. Fofana	25	3
MM. Lacroix	25	5
LL. Colwill	22	6
RR. James	26	24
MM. Gusto	22	27
PPep Chavarría	27	29
AA. Anselmino	20	30
JJoshua Kofi Acheampong	19	34
DDenner	18	—
Midfielders (10)
VV. Barco	21	4
RR. Watson	16	6
PPedro Neto	26	7
CC. Palmer	23	10
JJ. Henderson	35	14
JJ. Hato	19	21
GGeovany Tcherno Quenda	19	23
MM. Caicedo	24	25
MM. Nicoll-Jazuli	15	32
RR. Lavia	21	45
Forwards (7)
MM. Eboue	16	7
JJoão Pedro	24	9
JJ. Bynoe-Gittens	21	11
MM. Rogers	23	17
DD. Welbeck	35	18
EE. Emegha	22	22
EEstêvão	18	41

Transfers (last 10 recorded)

League position (stored standings)

Graded calls — from the public ledger

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