AV

Aston Villa

EPL·17 of 20 in the table·1 points·Villa Park

Next match Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest Sat 12 Sept, 15:00

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Aston Villa — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

3 Upcoming3 Results held

Model Strength

Not enough data

the model has priced 0 of this club's fixtures; 3 are needed

Avg. Model Edge

Not enough data

0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price

Market Efficiency

97.6%

Very Efficient

ROI · published

Not enough data

0 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed

Model Rank

8th

of 9 ranked

Fixtures Analysed

3

Held

Next fixtures

3 priced

Sat 12 Sept15:00 Nottingham Forest H — 2.38Betfair Exchange — Wed 16 Sept20:00 Coventry City A — 2.20888sport — Sat 19 Sept12:30 Tottenham Hotspur A — 3.70Unibet —

Form

last 3

DLL 1 pts from 3

A Hull City 0–0 -0.5

H Arsenal 0–1 -1.0

A Brighton 0–4 -1.1

The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected

Points taken (3 matches) Model expected (3 priced) Ahead Behind

-2.7 points against the model's expectation over the 3 fixtures it priced

Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition

Weaknesses

Goals conceded 1.67 #14 of 20

Shots 8.7 #19 of 20

Points over model expectation -2.7 #8 of 9

Goals scored 0 #20 of 20

Attack

per game, with rank

Goals scored 0 #20 of 20

Expected goals not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Shots 8.7 #19 of 20

On target 0.3 #20 of 20

Defence

per game, with rank

Goals conceded 1.67 #14 of 20

Expected against not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Shots faced 13 #9 of 20

Clean sheets 1 #10 of 20

Best model edges

on this club

No priced edge on this club

an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed

100%

Scored before half time

of 1 goals

0%

Scored from 75 minutes

of 1 goals

0%

From the penalty spot

of 1 goals

0%

Conceded from 75 minutes

of 4 conceded

From the provider's own goal events across 3 stored fixtures (5 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club

Not enough priced fixtures

the model priced 0 fixture(s) here

EPL EPL 3 fixtures on the snapshot · full table

#17

Position

1

Points from 3 played

-5

Goal difference

#	Team	Pl	GD	Pts
15	Bournemouth	3	-1	2
16	Nottingham Forest	3	-1	2
17	Aston Villa	3	-5	1
18	Tottenham	3	-5	1
19	Fulham	3	-3	0

Aston Villa and its immediate neighbours in the stored table.

Upcoming fixtures

1. Sat 12 Sept15:00in 19h 26m
   Aston Villa Nottingham Forest

   EPL

   Regular Season - 4
   not modelled
   model building
   —
2. Wed 16 Sept20:00in 5d
   Coventry City Aston Villa

   EFL

   Round of 32
   not modelled
   model building
   —
3. Sat 19 Sept12:30in 8d
   Tottenham Hotspur Aston Villa

   EPL

   Regular Season - 5
   not modelled
   model building
   —

Transfers (last 10 recorded)

League position (stored standings)

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