AV

Aston Villa

EPL·6 of 20 in the table·11 points·Villa Park

Next match Bournemouth v Aston Villa Wed 28 Oct, 19:45

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Aston Villa — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

3 Upcoming8 Results held

Model Strength

63.6

Developing

Avg. Model Edge

Not enough data

0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price

Market Efficiency

98%

Very Efficient

ROI · published

Not enough data

2 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed

Model Rank

11th

of 20 ranked

Fixtures Analysed

8

Held

Next fixtures

3 priced

Wed 28 Oct19:45 Bournemouth A — 3.10Betfair Exchange — Sat 31 Oct20:00 Fulham H — 2.06Betfair Exchange — Tue 3 Nov20:00 Barcelona A — 11.00Betfred —

Form

last 6

WWDWLD 11 pts from 6

H Manchester City 2–1 +1.9

A Newcastle 1–0 +2.0

H Brentford 2–2 -0.6

A Tottenham 3–2 +2.1

H Nottingham Forest 1–2 -1.8

A Hull City 0–0 -0.5

The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected

Points taken (8 matches) Model expected (8 priced) Ahead Behind

+1.0 points against the model's expectation over the 8 fixtures it priced

Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition

Weaknesses

Goals scored 1.13 #14 of 20

Possession 46.1% #15 of 20

Shots 11.4 #16 of 20

Shots faced 15.8 #16 of 20

Attack

per game, with rank

Goals scored 1.13 #14 of 20

Expected goals 0.93 #18 of 20

Shots 11.4 #16 of 20

On target 3 #20 of 20

Defence

per game, with rank

Goals conceded 1.5 #12 of 20

Expected against 1.82 #18 of 20

Shots faced 15.8 #16 of 20

Clean sheets 2 #12 of 20

Best model edges

on this club

No priced edge on this club

an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed

50%

Scored before half time

of 10 goals

20%

Scored from 75 minutes

of 10 goals

0%

From the penalty spot

of 10 goals

30%

Conceded from 75 minutes

of 10 conceded

From the provider's own goal events across 8 stored fixtures (20 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club

Not enough priced fixtures

the model priced 0 fixture(s) here

EPL EPL 3 fixtures on the snapshot · full table

#6

Position

11

Points from 8 played

-3

Goal difference

#	Team	Pl	GD	Pts
4	Chelsea	8	2	13
5	Liverpool	7	1	12
6	Aston Villa	8	-3	11
7	Brentford	7	5	10
8	Leeds	7	3	10

Aston Villa and its immediate neighbours in the stored table.

Upcoming fixtures

1. Wed 28 Oct19:45in 41h 16m
   Bournemouth Aston Villa

   EFL

   Round of 16
   not modelled
   model building
   —
2. Sat 31 Oct20:00in 5d
   Aston Villa Fulham

   EPL

   Regular Season - 9
   not modelled
   model building
   —
3. Tue 3 Nov20:00in 8d
   Barcelona Aston Villa

   UCL
   not modelled
   model building
   —

Season statistics (stored · 2026)

Squad (stored · 2026 · 33 players)

Player	Age	No.
Goalkeepers (3)
ZZ. Suzuki	23	1
MM. Bizot	34	40
JJ. Wright	21	42
Defenders (13)
MM. Cash	28	2
RR. Fortes	18	3
VV. Lindelöf	32	3
TT. Carroll	19	4
TT. Harwood-Bellis	23	4
TT. Mings	32	5
TT. Bloomfield	18	12
MM. Ruggeri	23	13
PPau Torres	28	14
II. Maatsen	23	22
AA. Wan-Bissaka	28	29
JJoão Gomes	24	35
MM. Cissé	20	48
Midfielders (11)
RR. Barkley	32	6
JJ. McGinn	31	7
BB. Kamara	26	8
EE. Buendía	29	10
II. Mbaye	17	19
JJ. Jimoh	19	20
AA. Onana	24	24
LL. Bogarde	21	26
LL. Goretzka	30	27
JJ. Manzambi	20	44
AAlysson Edward	19	47
Forwards (6)
NN. Jackson	24	11
AA. Garnacho	21	17
TT. Mulley	18	17
TT. Abraham	28	18
BBrian Madjo	16	39
GGeorge Hemmings	18	53

Transfers (last 10 recorded)

League position (stored standings)

Graded calls — from the public ledger

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