Bournemouth v Aston Villa — EFL Cup prediction, odds and analysis
EFLAt a glance
Model edge
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Fair price
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Model prob
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Reliability
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qualification
BournemouthvAston Villa
Wed 28 Oct, 19:45Bournemouth2.36Betfair
Draw3.75Betfair Sportsbook
Aston Villa3.10Betfair
Best captured price per outcome · 17 bookmakers · prices observed 16 h ago
RESEARCH ONLY
Model and market read this fixture broadly the same way.
Risk: The process score is member content — any single result stays uncertain.
The exact market, selection, probabilities and price thresholds are member content.
Venue: Vitality Stadium, BournemouthKickoff weather: 12.6°C · rain 0 mm · wind 10.8 kph
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Pricing board
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Recorded price movement
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Match flow
No event timeline is held for this fixture yet.
Goals, cards and substitutions arrive with the in-play sweep and the post-match pass.
Timeline and match statistics
Match statistics start at kick-off
there is nothing to count until the match is under way
The model's expected goals for this fixture are in the Model tab.
Form and league position
WWWWLL
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 2.25 / 1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 42% |
| Clean sheets | 50% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | at Manchester United (A) | 3-0 | W |
| 2026-10-22 | vs AC Milan (H) | 3-0 | W |
| 2026-10-18 | vs Sunderland (H) | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-10-15 | vs Sturm Graz (H) | 3-0 | W |
| 2026-10-10 | at Chelsea (A) | 1-5 | L |
WWLWWD
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 2.67 / 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 92% |
| Both teams scored | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 17% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | vs Manchester City (H) | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-10-21 | vs Viking (H) | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-10-17 | at Potters Tigers (A) | 2-3 | L |
| 2026-10-17 | at Newcastle (A) | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-10-14 | vs Fenerbahçe (H) | 6-0 | W |
Key players (this season, by minutes)
| Player | Apps | Mins | G | A | Cards | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 E. Buendía Midfielder |
1 | 96 | 0 | 0 | — | 6.5 |
 George Hemmings Midfielder |
1 | 96 | 0 | 0 | — | 6.3 |
 I. Maatsen Defender |
1 | 96 | 0 | 0 | — | 6.9 |
 M. Bizot Goalkeeper |
1 | 96 | 0 | 0 | — | 6.7 |
 M. Cash Defender |
1 | 96 | 0 | 0 | — | 6.7 |
Competition context
A league table does not apply to a cup tie, so none is shown.
| Round | Round of 16 |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
Previous meetings
Recent meetings
Bournemouth 0 wins2 drawsAston Villa 4avg 2.8 goalsBTTS 67%Over 2.5 in 50%
small sample — 6 meetings held; context, not a pattern claim
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-07 | AFC Bournemouth v Aston Villa FC | 1-1 | Premier League |
| 2025-11-09 | Aston Villa FC v AFC Bournemouth | 4-0 | Premier League |
| 2025-05-10 | Bournemouth v Aston Villa | 0-1 | Premier League |
| 2024-10-26 | Aston Villa v Bournemouth | 1-1 | Premier League |
| 2024-04-21 | Aston Villa FC v AFC Bournemouth | 3-1 | Premier League |
| 2024-04-21 | Aston Villa v Bournemouth | 3-1 | Premier League |
Prior meetings held in the engine's results archive, newest first. The archive is what the model trains on, so a meeting missing here was never ingested — it is not a claim the game was not played.
Starting elevens
Line-ups not released
clubs confirm an XI about an hour before kick-off
Squad availability and reported absences are below.
Injuries and absences
No recent injury snapshot for these teams.
Availability snapshots are captured daily for covered leagues; a fixture outside those
competitions won't have one — that is a coverage statement, not "no injuries".
Signal ledger
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Grounded team-news brief
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Module freshness: odds snapshot 26 Oct, 08:07 · model run 18 Sept, 07:01
More about this fixture other views, the rest of the competition, and the common questions
More EFL Cup fixtures
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Frequently asked questions
When do Bournemouth play Aston Villa?
Kick-off is Wed 28 Oct, 19:45 UK time in the EFL Cup.
Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 26 October at 08:07 UK time. · engine slate assembled 16 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.
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See the open track record
· model probability beside the market fair line, per fixture
· model EV, model edge and price edge — separately labelled
· grounded team-news briefs and the match intelligence tabs
· watchlist, alerts and the AI analyst
Everything above is real engine output — nothing is mocked or illustrative. Scores come from the governed in-play scan and bookmaker prices from the scheduled market snapshot, each stamped with when it was observed. The track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.