SHARPFOOTYData · Models · Insight Liverpool
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Liverpool

EPL5 of 20 in the table12 pointsAnfield
Next match Liverpool v Chelsea Wed 28 Oct, 20:00

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Liverpool — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

3 Upcoming8 Results held
Model Strength
68.5
Strong
Avg. Model Edge
Not enough data
0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price
Market Efficiency
98.5%
Very Efficient
ROI · published
Not enough data
2 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed
Model Rank
4th
of 20 ranked
Fixtures Analysed
8
Held

Next fixtures

3 priced
Wed 28 Oct20:00 Chelsea crest Chelsea H — 2.52Matchbook — Sun 1 Nov16:30 Arsenal crest Arsenal H — 3.15Betfair Exchange — Wed 4 Nov17:45 Fenerbahce crest Fenerbahce A — 1.67Coral —

Form

last 6
WWLWDW 13 pts from 6
H Brighton 2–0 +0.8
A Brentford 2–1 +1.4
H Manchester City 0–3 -1.7
A Bournemouth 1–0 +1.1
H Fulham 0–0 -1.3
A Ipswich 2–0 +1.6
The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected
Points taken (8 matches) Model expected (8 priced) Ahead Behind
Points taken against model expected points over 8 matches 0 8 15
+2.4 points against the model's expectation over the 8 fixtures it priced
Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition
Strengths
Clean sheets 4 #3 of 20
Shots 15.4 #4 of 20
Goals conceded 1 #5 of 20
Points over model expectation 2.4 #5 of 20

Attack

per game, with rank
Goals scored 1.38 #9 of 20
Expected goals 1.6 #9 of 20
Shots 15.4 #4 of 20
On target 4.9 #6 of 20

Defence

per game, with rank
Goals conceded 1 #5 of 20
Expected against 1.31 #8 of 20
Shots faced 12.5 #7 of 20
Clean sheets 4 #3 of 20

Best model edges

on this club
No priced edge on this club
an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed
30%
Scored before half time
of 10 goals
20%
Scored from 75 minutes
of 10 goals
10%
From the penalty spot
of 10 goals
11%
Conceded from 75 minutes
of 9 conceded
From the provider's own goal events across 8 stored fixtures (19 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club
Not enough priced fixtures
the model priced 0 fixture(s) here
EPL EPL 3 fixtures on the snapshot · full table
#5
Position
12
Points from 7 played
+1
Goal difference
#TeamPlGDPts
3 Brighton 71816
4 Chelsea 8213
5 Liverpool 7112
6 Aston Villa 8-311
7 Brentford 7510
Liverpool and its immediate neighbours in the stored table.
Home ground: Anfield gazetteer
Recorded form WWWWWL last 12: 2.5 scored / 1.33 conceded per game · Over 2.5 67% · BTTS 58% · clean sheets 33% (40 results held)
H Brighton 2-0 W · H Villarreal 4-3 W · A Brentford 2-1 W · A Lask Linz 6-3 W · A LASK 6-3 W

Upcoming fixtures

  1. Wed 28 Oct20:00in 41h 31m
    Liverpool crestLiverpool Chelsea crestChelsea
    EFL
    Round of 16
    not modelled
    model building
    —
  2. Sun 1 Nov16:30in 6d
    Liverpool crestLiverpool Arsenal crestArsenal
    EPL
    not modelled
    model building
    —
  3. Wed 4 Nov17:45in 9d
    Fenerbahce crestFenerbahce Liverpool crestLiverpool
    UCL
    League Stage - 4
    not modelled
    model building
    —

Season statistics (stored · 2026)

PWDL
Home3021
Away4310
Total7331
9 (1.3/game)
Goals scored
8 (1.1/game)
Goals conceded
3
Clean sheets
2
Failed to score
1 / 0
Pens scored / missed
Season form DDWDWLW

Squad (stored · 2026 · 34 players)

PlayerAgeNo.
Goalkeepers (4)
Alisson Becker331
G. Mamardashvili2525
F. Woodman2828
H. Davies2295
Defenders (10)
J. Gomez282
V. van Dijk344
W. Omoruyi194
J. Jacquet205
T. Ndiaye175
M. Kerkez226
K. Tsimikas2921
J. Frimpong2530
R. Araújo2633
L. Chambers2144
Midfielders (11)
W. Endo323
F. Wirtz227
D. Szoboszlai258
A. Mac Allister2710
J. McConnell2110
C. Gakpo2618
H. Elliott2219
Víctor Muñoz2223
R. Gravenberch2338
T. Nyoni1842
R. Ngumoha1773
Forwards (9)
A. Isak269
J. Danns199
W. Wright179
F. Chiesa2814
H. Ekitike2322
B. Barcola2329
Joshua Abe1540
L. Koumas2067
J. Lambie1882

Transfers (last 10 recorded)

PlayerClubTypeDate
OUT H. Elliott to Valencia Loan 2026-08-31
OUT K. Figueroa to Port Vale Loan 2026-08-31
IN L. Kiaba Mounganga from Genk Transfer 2026-08-31
OUT L. Kiaba Mounganga to Genk Loan 2026-08-31
IN B. Barcola from Paris Saint Germain Transfer 2026-08-30
OUT Stefan Bajčetić to Celta de Vigo II - 2026-08-30
IN L. Kiaba Mounganga from Genk Transfer 2026-08-30
IN B. Barcola from Paris Saint Germain Transfer 2026-08-29
OUT Stefan Bajčetić to Celta de Vigo II - 2026-08-29
OUT K. Miściur to Leek Town Loan 2026-08-28

League position (stored standings)

5th with 12 points from 7 played · goal difference +1 · unchanged since 19 Oct
From recorded standings snapshots — observations, not projections.
Team data: fresh · collected 20 h ago

Graded calls — from the public ledger

PostedMatchSelectionPosted → closeCLVResult
2026-10-20 Liverpool v Villarreal Liverpool to Win 1.55 → 1.58 -1.9% ✓ WIN
2026-09-15 Liverpool v Tottenham Hotspur Liverpool to Win 1.75 → 2.10 -16.7% ✓ WIN
Every call is timestamped and graded against the closing line, win or lose — the full ledger is on the track record.

Explore

EFL CupEPLUEFA Champions League Next: Liverpool v Chelsea Search Liverpool matches Opportunity board

Frequently asked questions

When do Liverpool play next?
Liverpool's next fixture in the snapshot is Liverpool v Chelsea on Wed 28 Oct, 20:00 UK time (EFL Cup).