Chelsea v Manchester United — EPL prediction, odds and analysis
EPL·Regular Season - 9·Sat 31 Oct, 12:30 UK·Stamford Bridge, London· 12°C · 9.6 kph wind · 0.15 mm rainAt a glance
Model edge
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Fair price
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Model prob
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Reliability
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qualification
ChelseavManchester United
Sat 31 Oct, 12:30Chelsea1.93Casumo
Draw4.00Betfred (UK)
Manchester United4.40Betfair
Best captured price per outcome · 21 bookmakers · prices observed 15 h ago
RESEARCH ONLY
Model and market read this fixture broadly the same way.
Risk: The process score is member content — any single result stays uncertain.
The exact market, selection, probabilities and price thresholds are member content.
Venue: Stamford Bridge, LondonKickoff weather: 12°C · rain 0.15 mm · wind 9.6 kph
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Pricing board
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Recorded price movement
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Match flow
No event timeline is held for this fixture yet.
Goals, cards and substitutions arrive with the in-play sweep and the post-match pass.
Timeline and match statistics
Match statistics start at kick-off
there is nothing to count until the match is under way
The model's expected goals for this fixture are in the Model tab.
Form and league position
LWWDWL
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 2 / 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 42% |
| Clean sheets | 42% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | vs Tottenham (H) | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-10-17 | at Everton (A) | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-10-10 | vs Bournemouth (H) | 5-1 | W |
| 2026-09-30 | at Lyon (A) | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-09-23 | vs Austria Wien (H) | 1-0 | W |
LLLDLL
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 1.25 / 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | vs Bournemouth (H) | 0-3 | L |
| 2026-10-21 | at Como (A) | 1-4 | L |
| 2026-10-21 | at Como 1907 (A) | 1-4 | L |
| 2026-10-18 | at Leeds (A) | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-10-13 | at Atletico Madrid (A) | 0-2 | L |
League standings 2026–27
| Team | Pos | Pts | P | GD | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 4 | 13 | 8 | +2 | LWWLD |
| Manchester United | 15 | 7 | 7 | 0 | DDDLD |
Chelsea: 8 pts behind 1st · 9 pts above 20th
Manchester United: 14 pts behind 1st · 3 pts above 20th
From the engine's stored standings snapshot · API-Football · updated 2026-10-25.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
Previous meetings
Recent meetings
Chelsea 3 wins1 drawManchester United 2avg 3.5 goalsBTTS 67%Over 2.5 in 50%
small sample — 6 meetings held; context, not a pattern claim
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Chelsea FC v Manchester United FC | 0-1 | Premier League |
| 2025-09-20 | Manchester United FC v Chelsea FC | 2-1 | Premier League |
| 2025-05-16 | Chelsea v Man United | 1-0 | Premier League |
| 2024-11-03 | Man United v Chelsea | 1-1 | Premier League |
| 2024-04-04 | Chelsea FC v Manchester United FC | 4-3 | Premier League |
| 2024-04-04 | Chelsea v Man United | 4-3 | season-2324 |
Prior meetings held in the engine's results archive, newest first. The archive is what the model trains on, so a meeting missing here was never ingested — it is not a claim the game was not played.
Starting elevens
Line-ups not released
clubs confirm an XI about an hour before kick-off
Squad availability and reported absences are below.
Injuries and absences
Chelseasnapshot 2026-10-25
| Player | Status | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| J. Henderson | Missing Fixture | Wrist Injury |
| E. Fernandez | Missing Fixture | Coach's decision |
| Joao Pedro | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| R. James | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| E. Martinez | Missing Fixture | Broken jawbone |
| W. Fofana | Missing Fixture | Red Card |
| M. Caicedo | Missing Fixture | Calf Injury |
| P. Chavarria | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| E. Emegha | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| M. Sarr | Missing Fixture | Transfer negotiations |
| J. Gittens | Missing Fixture | Ankle Injury |
| M. Palestra | Missing Fixture | Thigh Injury |
| A. Anselmino | Missing Fixture | Inactive |
| J. Henderson | Missing Fixture | Wrist Injury |
| E. Fernandez | Missing Fixture | Coach's decision |
Manchester Unitedsnapshot 2026-10-25
| Player | Status | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| M. de Ligt | Missing Fixture | Back Injury |
| N. Mazraoui | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| L. Shaw | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| M. Rashford | Questionable | Hip Injury |
| L. Martinez | Questionable | Muscle Injury |
| T. Heaton | Missing Fixture | Abdominal strain |
| M. Mount | Missing Fixture | Foot Injury |
| M. Ugarte | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| B. Sesko | Missing Fixture | Leg Injury |
| A. Diallo | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| K. Mainoo | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| C. Baleba | Missing Fixture | Ankle Injury |
| P. Dorgu | Missing Fixture | Hamstring Injury |
| A. Heaven | Missing Fixture | Illness |
| M. de Ligt | Missing Fixture | Back Injury |
Each side's list carries its OWN capture date. A confirmed starting XI overrides an older snapshot; player names are shown as returned, impact is NOT scored (that would be invention).
Signal ledger
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Grounded team-news brief
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Module freshness: odds snapshot 26 Oct, 08:07 · model run 18 Oct, 07:20 · injury snapshot 2026-10-25
More about this fixture other views, the rest of the competition, and the common questions
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Frequently asked questions
When do Chelsea play Manchester United?
Kick-off is Sat 31 Oct, 12:30 UK time in the EPL.
Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 26 October at 08:07 UK time. · engine slate assembled 15 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.
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See the open track record
· model probability beside the market fair line, per fixture
· model EV, model edge and price edge — separately labelled
· grounded team-news briefs and the match intelligence tabs
· watchlist, alerts and the AI analyst
Everything above is real engine output — nothing is mocked or illustrative. Scores come from the governed in-play scan and bookmaker prices from the scheduled market snapshot, each stamped with when it was observed. The track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.