MU

Manchester United

EPL·11 of 20 in the table·4 points·Old Trafford

Next match Manchester United v Manchester City Sun 13 Sept, 16:30

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Manchester United — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

2 Upcoming3 Results held

Model Strength

64

Developing

Avg. Model Edge

Not enough data

0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price

Market Efficiency

98.3%

Very Efficient

ROI · published

Not enough data

0 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed

Model Rank

Not enough data

this club has no priced fixtures in the stored competition

Fixtures Analysed

3

Held

Next fixtures

2 priced

Sun 13 Sept16:30 Manchester City H — 3.35Betfair Exchange — Wed 16 Sept20:00 Brighton and Hove Albion H — 1.83Ladbrokes —

Form

last 3

DWL 4 pts from 3

A Everton 2–2 -0.7

H Ipswich 5–2 —

A Hull City 0–2 -1.0

The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected

Points taken (3 matches) Model expected (3 priced) Ahead Behind

+1.3 points against the model's expectation over the 3 fixtures it priced

Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition

Strengths

Shots 22.7 #1 of 20

Shots on target 6.7 #1 of 20

Goals scored 2.33 #3 of 20

Possession 62.3% #3 of 20

Weaknesses

Clean sheets 0 #15 of 20

Goals conceded 2 #16 of 20

Attack

per game, with rank

Goals scored 2.33 #3 of 20

Expected goals not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Shots 22.7 #1 of 20

On target 6.7 #1 of 20

Defence

per game, with rank

Goals conceded 2 #16 of 20

Expected against not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Shots faced 11.7 #6 of 20

Clean sheets 0 #15 of 20

Best model edges

on this club

No priced edge on this club

an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed

17%

Scored before half time

of 6 goals

33%

Scored from 75 minutes

of 6 goals

17%

From the penalty spot

of 6 goals

43%

Conceded from 75 minutes

of 7 conceded

From the provider's own goal events across 3 stored fixtures (13 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club

Not enough priced fixtures

the model priced 0 fixture(s) here

EPL EPL 2 fixtures on the snapshot · full table

#11

Position

4

Points from 3 played

+1

Goal difference

#	Team	Pl	GD	Pts
9	Leeds	3	1	5
10	Brighton	3	3	4
11	Manchester United	3	1	4
12	Sunderland	3	0	4
13	Crystal Palace	3	-4	3

Manchester United and its immediate neighbours in the stored table.

Upcoming fixtures

1. Sun 13 Sept16:30in 44h 56m
   Manchester United Manchester City

   EPL

   Regular Season - 4
   not modelled
   model building
   —
2. Wed 16 Sept20:00in 5d
   Manchester United Brighton and Hove Albion

   EFL

   Round of 32
   not modelled
   model building
   —

Season statistics (stored · 2026)

Squad (stored · 2026 · 42 players)

Player	Age	No.
Goalkeepers (4)
DDermot William Mee	23	1
SS. Lammens	23	1
KK. Darlow	35	12
TT. Heaton	39	22
Defenders (13)
DDiogo Dalot	27	2
JJ. Kamason	19	2
NN. Mazraoui	28	3
DD. Armer	17	4
DDaniel Armer	18	4
HH. Amass	18	5
HH. Maguire	32	5
LLisandro Martínez	27	6
PP. Dorgu	21	13
GG. Kukonki	17	14
LL. Yoro	20	15
LL. Shaw	30	23
AA. Heaven	19	26
Midfielders (13)
TT. Fletcher	18	6
MM. Mount	26	7
BBruno Fernandes	31	8
DDaniel Gore	21	8
JJ. Devaney	18	8
JJ. Moorhouse	20	8
JJ. Fletcher	18	10
AAndrey Santos	21	17
CC. Baleba	21	17
YY. Tielemans	28	18
MM. Ugarte	25	25
TTobias Christopher Collyer	21	33
KK. Mainoo	20	37
Forwards (12)
SS. Lacey	18	7
MM. Rashford	28	9
MMatheus Cunha	26	10
JJ. Zirkzee	24	11
TT. Thompson	17	11
AA. Diallo	23	16
JJoseph Gabriel	15	16
OO. Martin	18	16
TT. Thompson	17	17
BB. Mbeumo	26	19
EE. Wheatley	19	29
BB. Šeško	22	30

Transfers (last 10 recorded)

League position (stored standings)

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