MU

Manchester United

EPL·15 of 20 in the table·7 points·Old Trafford

Next match Chelsea v Manchester United Sat 31 Oct, 12:30

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Manchester United — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

2 Upcoming8 Results held

Model Strength

62.9

Developing

Avg. Model Edge

Not enough data

0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price

Market Efficiency

98.3%

Very Efficient

ROI · published

Not enough data

2 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed

Model Rank

5th

of 20 ranked

Fixtures Analysed

8

Held

Next fixtures

2 priced

Sat 31 Oct12:30 Chelsea A — 4.40Betfair Exchange — Tue 3 Nov20:00 AS Roma H — 2.34Betfair Exchange —

Form

last 6

LDDDLD 4 pts from 6

H Bournemouth 0–3 -2.4

A Leeds 1–1 -0.6

H Tottenham 1–1 -1.1

A Fulham 1–1 -0.8

H Manchester City 0–1 -1.8

A Everton 2–2 -0.7

The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected

Points taken (8 matches) Model expected (8 priced) Ahead Behind

-5.5 points against the model's expectation over the 8 fixtures it priced

Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition

Strengths

Shots 19.4 #1 of 20

Shots on target 5.1 #4 of 20

Shots faced 10.9 #4 of 20

Expected goals for 1.87 #5 of 20

Weaknesses

Clean sheets 0 #19 of 20

Points over model expectation -5.5 #20 of 20

Attack

per game, with rank

Goals scored 1.25 #10 of 20

Expected goals 1.87 #5 of 20

Shots 19.4 #1 of 20

On target 5.1 #4 of 20

Defence

per game, with rank

Goals conceded 1.63 #13 of 20

Expected against 1.67 #13 of 20

Shots faced 10.9 #4 of 20

Clean sheets 0 #19 of 20

Best model edges

on this club

No priced edge on this club

an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed

20%

Scored before half time

of 10 goals

30%

Scored from 75 minutes

of 10 goals

10%

From the penalty spot

of 10 goals

31%

Conceded from 75 minutes

of 13 conceded

From the provider's own goal events across 8 stored fixtures (23 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club

Not enough priced fixtures

the model priced 0 fixture(s) here

EPL EPL 2 fixtures on the snapshot · full table

#15

Position

7

Points from 7 played

0

Goal difference

#	Team	Pl	GD	Pts
13	Fulham	8	-2	8
14	Newcastle	7	-4	8
15	Manchester United	7	0	7
16	Crystal Palace	7	-8	7
17	Bournemouth	7	-4	6

Manchester United and its immediate neighbours in the stored table.

Upcoming fixtures

1. Sat 31 Oct12:30in 5d
   Chelsea Manchester United

   EPL

   Regular Season - 9
   not modelled
   model building
   —
2. Tue 3 Nov20:00in 8d
   Manchester United AS Roma

   UCL

   League Stage - 4
   not modelled
   model building
   —

Season statistics (stored · 2026)

Squad (stored · 2026 · 44 players)

Player	Age	No.
Goalkeepers (4)
SS. Lammens	23	1
KK. Darlow	35	12
TT. Heaton	39	22
DDermot William Mee	23	45
Defenders (14)
DDiogo Dalot	27	2
JJ. Kamason	19	2
NN. Mazraoui	28	3
DD. Armer	17	4
MM. de Ligt	26	4
HH. Maguire	32	5
LLisandro Martínez	27	6
PP. Dorgu	21	13
GG. Kukonki	17	14
LL. Yoro	20	15
LL. Shaw	30	23
AA. Heaven	19	26
HH. Amass	18	41
DDaniel Armer	18	57
Midfielders (14)
MM. Mount	26	7
BBruno Fernandes	31	8
DDaniel Gore	21	8
JJ. Devaney	18	8
JJ. Moorhouse	20	8
MM. Rashford	28	9
JJ. Fletcher	18	10
AAndrey Santos	21	17
YY. Tielemans	28	18
CC. Baleba	21	20
MM. Ugarte	25	25
TTobias Christopher Collyer	21	33
KK. Mainoo	20	37
TT. Fletcher	19	39
Forwards (12)
MMatheus Cunha	26	10
JJ. Zirkzee	24	11
TT. Thompson	17	11
AA. Diallo	23	16
JJoseph Gabriel	15	16
OO. Martin	18	16
TT. Thompson	17	17
BB. Mbeumo	26	19
EE. Wheatley	19	29
BB. Šeško	22	30
SS. Lacey	19	31
JJ. Gabriel	15	77

Transfers (last 10 recorded)

League position (stored standings)

Graded calls — from the public ledger

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