EFL Cup Predictions — Model Probabilities
Model probabilities for every EFL Cup fixture on the live snapshot — 22 of 22 carry a full model view. Research, not instructions.
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| Match | Kickoff (UK) | Model 1X2 | Most likely score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tranmere Rovers v Rochdale | Sat 1 Aug, 15:00 | 47% / 28% / 25% | 1-1 |
| York City v Crawley Town | Mon 3 Aug, 19:30 | 47% / 28% / 25% | 1-1 |
| Bristol City v Walsall | Fri 7 Aug, 19:45 | 45% / 29% / 26% | 1-1 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers v Port Vale | Fri 7 Aug, 19:45 | 45% / 29% / 26% | 1-1 |
| Wycombe Wanderers v Stevenage | Fri 7 Aug, 19:45 | 45% / 29% / 26% | 1-1 |
| Middlesbrough v Wrexham AFC | Fri 7 Aug, 20:00 | 45% / 29% / 26% | 1-1 |
| Cambridge United v Barnet | Sat 8 Aug, 13:00 | 47% / 28% / 25% | 1-1 |
| Queens Park Rangers v Millwall | Sat 8 Aug, 14:00 | 47% / 28% / 25% | 1-1 |
| Crewe Alexandra v Accrington Stanley | Sat 8 Aug, 15:00 | 47% / 28% / 25% | 1-1 |
| Barnsley v Wigan Athletic | Sat 8 Aug, 15:00 | 47% / 28% / 25% | 1-1 |
| Swansea City v Birmingham City | Sat 8 Aug, 15:00 | 47% / 28% / 25% | 1-1 |
| Burton Albion v Blackburn Rovers | Sat 8 Aug, 15:00 | 47% / 28% / 25% | 1-1 |
| Grimsby Town v Blackpool | Sat 8 Aug, 15:00 | 47% / 28% / 25% | 1-1 |
| Sheffield Wednesday v Bolton Wanderers | Sat 8 Aug, 15:00 | 47% / 28% / 25% | 1-1 |
| Bristol Rovers v Peterborough United | Sat 8 Aug, 15:00 | 47% / 28% / 25% | 1-1 |
| Bromley FC v Reading | Sat 8 Aug, 15:00 | 47% / 28% / 25% | 1-1 |
| Burnley v Notts County | Sat 8 Aug, 15:00 | 47% / 28% / 25% | 1-1 |
| Cardiff City v Swindon Town | Sat 8 Aug, 15:00 | 47% / 28% / 25% | 1-1 |
| Fleetwood Town v Chesterfield FC | Sat 8 Aug, 15:00 | 47% / 28% / 25% | 1-1 |
| Derby County v Lincoln City | Sat 8 Aug, 15:00 | 47% / 28% / 25% | 1-1 |
| Stockport County FC v Doncaster Rovers | Sat 8 Aug, 15:00 | 47% / 28% / 25% | 1-1 |
| Gillingham v Luton | Sat 8 Aug, 15:00 | 47% / 28% / 25% | 1-1 |
Read the full picture. Every row links to the fixture's prediction
view: expected goals, fair odds, price movement and the grounded team-news brief. The
track record grades every published call in the open.
Frequently asked questions
How are these efl cup predictions made?
A Dixon-Coles + ELO statistical model, trained continuously on a growing results archive, produces expected goals per team and win/draw/win probabilities for every fixture. The model is then priced against the real odds market — the market always owns the final number.
Are these betting tips?
No — they are model probabilities published as research. Probabilities carry uncertainty and no outcome is certain; judge the process on the public track record, which grades every published call against the closing line.
How do I know the model is any good?
The track record page publishes calibration (predicted vs observed frequencies), closing-line value on every call, and a held-out walk-forward backtest — process metrics first, never performance claims.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.