Primera División - Argentina Predictions — Model Probabilities

Research, not instructions — the model states a probability, never a selection.

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This page selects every fixture on the current snapshot that carries a full model view — win, draw and win probabilities plus the most likely scoreline. A fixture the engine has not yet scored is left out rather than shown with an assumed number.

0 fixtures of 21 considered

Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 11 September at 08:02 UK time.

Match	Kickoff (UK)	Model 1X2	Most likely score
Newells Old Boys v Velez Sarsfield BA	Fri 11 Sept, 21:00	—	—
Defensa y Justicia v Gimnasia Mendoza	Fri 11 Sept, 23:15	—	—
Boca Juniors v Central Córdoba	Sat 12 Sept, 01:30	—	—
Independiente Rivadavia v Aldosivi Mar del Plata	Sat 12 Sept, 18:45	—	—
Estudiantes v Platense	Sat 12 Sept, 18:45	—	—
Atlético Tucuman v River Plate	Sat 12 Sept, 21:30	—	—
Talleres v Union Santa Fe	Sun 13 Sept, 00:00	—	—
CA Tigre BA v Rosario Central	Sun 13 Sept, 18:45	—	—
Sarmiento de Junin v Belgrano de Cordoba	Sun 13 Sept, 18:45	—	—
Argentinos Juniors v Gimnasia La Plata	Sun 13 Sept, 21:00	—	—
Independiente v San Lorenzo	Sun 13 Sept, 23:15	—	—
Atlético Huracán v Racing Club	Mon 14 Sept, 01:30	—	—
Deportivo Riestra v Lanus	Mon 14 Sept, 23:00	—	—
Banfield v Barracas Central	Mon 14 Sept, 23:00	—	—
Instituto de Córdoba v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto	Tue 15 Sept, 01:15	—	—
Central Córdoba v Defensa y Justicia	Fri 18 Sept, 22:00	—	—
Racing Club v Sarmiento de Junin	Sat 19 Sept, 01:15	—	—
Gimnasia La Plata v Banfield	Sat 19 Sept, 18:30	—	—
Gimnasia Mendoza v Deportivo Riestra	Sat 19 Sept, 18:30	—	—
Union Santa Fe v Independiente	Sat 19 Sept, 20:45	—	—
Instituto de Córdoba v Talleres	Sun 20 Sept, 01:15	—	—

Read the full picture. Every row links to the fixture's prediction view: expected goals, fair odds, price movement and the grounded team-news brief. The track record grades every published call in the open.

Frequently asked questions

How are these primera división - argentina predictions made?

A Dixon-Coles + ELO statistical model, trained continuously on a growing results archive, produces expected goals per team and win/draw/win probabilities for every fixture. The model is then priced against the real odds market — the market always owns the final number.

Are these betting tips?

No — they are model probabilities published as research. Probabilities carry uncertainty and no outcome is certain; judge the process on the public track record, which grades every published call against the closing line.

How do I know the model is any good?

The track record page publishes calibration (predicted vs observed frequencies), closing-line value on every call, and a held-out walk-forward backtest — process metrics first, never performance claims.

Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 11 September at 08:02 UK time. · engine slate assembled 13 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.