Primera División - Argentina Predictions — Model Probabilities
Model probabilities for every Primera División - Argentina fixture on the live snapshot — 15 of 15 carry a full model view. Research, not instructions.
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| Match | Kickoff (UK) | Model 1X2 | Most likely score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sarmiento de Junin v Argentinos Juniors | Thu 23 Jul, 23:30 | 43% / 32% / 25% | 1-1 |
| Belgrano de Cordoba v Rosario Central | Thu 23 Jul, 23:30 | 43% / 32% / 25% | 1-1 |
| Defensa y Justicia v Aldosivi Mar del Plata | Fri 24 Jul, 01:45 | 43% / 32% / 25% | 1-1 |
| Gimnasia Mendoza v Central Córdoba | Fri 24 Jul, 20:45 | 36% / 32% / 32% | 1-1 |
| Racing Club v Gimnasia La Plata | Fri 24 Jul, 23:00 | 43% / 32% / 25% | 1-1 |
| Velez Sarsfield BA v Instituto de Córdoba | Fri 24 Jul, 23:00 | 43% / 32% / 25% | 1-1 |
| Atlético Huracán v Banfield | Sat 25 Jul, 01:15 | 43% / 32% / 25% | 1-1 |
| Platense v Union Santa Fe | Sat 25 Jul, 01:15 | 43% / 32% / 25% | 1-1 |
| Estudiantes de Río Cuarto v CA Tigre BA | Sat 25 Jul, 18:45 | 43% / 32% / 25% | 1-1 |
| Newells Old Boys v Talleres | Sat 25 Jul, 21:00 | 43% / 32% / 25% | 1-1 |
| River Plate v Barracas Central | Sat 25 Jul, 23:15 | 67% / 23% / 10% | 2-0 |
| Lanus v San Lorenzo | Sun 26 Jul, 01:30 | 42% / 32% / 26% | 1-1 |
| Atlético Tucuman v Independiente Rivadavia | Sun 26 Jul, 19:00 | 43% / 32% / 25% | 1-1 |
| Estudiantes v Independiente | Sun 26 Jul, 21:15 | 43% / 32% / 25% | 1-1 |
| Deportivo Riestra v Boca Juniors | Sun 26 Jul, 23:30 | 43% / 32% / 25% | 1-1 |
Read the full picture. Every row links to the fixture's prediction
view: expected goals, fair odds, price movement and the grounded team-news brief. The
track record grades every published call in the open.
Frequently asked questions
How are these primera división - argentina predictions made?
A Dixon-Coles + ELO statistical model, trained continuously on a growing results archive, produces expected goals per team and win/draw/win probabilities for every fixture. The model is then priced against the real odds market — the market always owns the final number.
Are these betting tips?
No — they are model probabilities published as research. Probabilities carry uncertainty and no outcome is certain; judge the process on the public track record, which grades every published call against the closing line.
How do I know the model is any good?
The track record page publishes calibration (predicted vs observed frequencies), closing-line value on every call, and a held-out walk-forward backtest — process metrics first, never performance claims.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.