Brazil Série A Predictions — Model Probabilities
Model probabilities for every Brazil Série A fixture on the live snapshot — 12 of 12 carry a full model view. Research, not instructions.
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| Match | Kickoff (UK) | Model 1X2 | Most likely score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo v Santos | Thu 16 Jul, 23:30 | 49% / 29% / 22% | 1-1 |
| Vitoria v Vasco da Gama | Thu 16 Jul, 23:30 | 51% / 27% / 22% | 1-1 |
| Bahia v Chapecoense | Fri 17 Jul, 23:30 | 47% / 29% / 23% | 1-1 |
| Fluminense v Bragantino-SP | Sat 18 Jul, 00:00 | 49% / 29% / 22% | 1-1 |
| Mirassol v Grêmio | Sat 18 Jul, 00:00 | 54% / 27% / 19% | 1-1 |
| Atletico Mineiro v Bahia | Tue 21 Jul, 23:30 | 60% / 25% / 16% | 1-1 |
| Coritiba v Palmeiras | Wed 22 Jul, 23:30 | 28% / 30% / 42% | 1-1 |
| Sao Paulo v Atletico Paranaense | Thu 23 Jul, 01:30 | 49% / 29% / 22% | 1-1 |
| Chapecoense v Flamengo | Thu 23 Jul, 01:30 | 49% / 29% / 22% | 1-1 |
| Internacional v Cruzeiro | Thu 23 Jul, 01:30 | 46% / 31% / 23% | 1-1 |
| Botafogo v Vitoria | Thu 23 Jul, 23:30 | 47% / 29% / 23% | 1-1 |
| Corinthians v Remo | Thu 23 Jul, 23:30 | 66% / 22% / 12% | 2-0 |
Read the full picture. Every row links to the fixture's prediction
view: expected goals, fair odds, price movement and the grounded team-news brief. The
track record grades every published call in the open.
Frequently asked questions
How are these brazil série a predictions made?
A Dixon-Coles + ELO statistical model, trained continuously on a growing results archive, produces expected goals per team and win/draw/win probabilities for every fixture. The model is then priced against the real odds market — the market always owns the final number.
Are these betting tips?
No — they are model probabilities published as research. Probabilities carry uncertainty and no outcome is certain; judge the process on the public track record, which grades every published call against the closing line.
How do I know the model is any good?
The track record page publishes calibration (predicted vs observed frequencies), closing-line value on every call, and a held-out walk-forward backtest — process metrics first, never performance claims.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.