Serie A - Italy Predictions — Model Probabilities
Research, not instructions — the model states a probability, never a selection.
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This page selects every fixture on the current snapshot that carries a full model view — win, draw and win probabilities plus the most likely scoreline. A fixture the engine has not yet scored is left out rather than shown with an assumed number.
0 fixtures of 20 considered
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Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 26 October at 08:07 UK time.
| Match | Kickoff (UK) | Model 1X2 | Most likely score |
|---|---|---|---|
 Sassuolo v Lazio
|
Tue 27 Oct, 17:30 | — | — |
 Torino v Como
|
Tue 27 Oct, 19:45 | — | — |
 AS Roma v Cagliari
|
Tue 27 Oct, 19:45 | — | — |
 Venezia v Inter Milan
|
Wed 28 Oct, 17:30 | — | — |
 AC Milan v Bologna
|
Wed 28 Oct, 17:30 | — | — |
 Parma v Udinese
|
Wed 28 Oct, 17:30 | — | — |
 Genoa v Juventus
|
Wed 28 Oct, 19:45 | — | — |
 Monza v Napoli
|
Wed 28 Oct, 19:45 | — | — |
 Frosinone v Lecce
|
Thu 29 Oct, 17:30 | — | — |
 Fiorentina v Atalanta BC
|
Thu 29 Oct, 19:45 | — | — |
| Bologna v Monza
|
Sat 31 Oct, 14:00 | — | — |
| Udinese v AS Roma
|
Sat 31 Oct, 17:00 | — | — |
| AC Milan v Inter Milan
|
Sat 31 Oct, 19:45 | — | — |
| Como v Venezia
|
Sun 1 Nov, 11:30 | — | — |
| Lazio v Cagliari
|
Sun 1 Nov, 14:00 | — | — |
| Frosinone v Torino
|
Sun 1 Nov, 14:00 | — | — |
| Lecce v Genoa
|
Sun 1 Nov, 17:00 | — | — |
 Juventus v Napoli
|
Sun 1 Nov, 19:45 | — | — |
| Sassuolo v Fiorentina
|
Mon 2 Nov, 17:30 | — | — |
| Atalanta BC v Parma
|
Mon 2 Nov, 19:45 | — | — |
Read the full picture. Every row links to the fixture's prediction
view: expected goals, fair odds, price movement and the grounded team-news brief. The
track record grades every published call in the open.
Frequently asked questions
How are these serie a - italy predictions made?
A Dixon-Coles + ELO statistical model, trained continuously on a growing results archive, produces expected goals per team and win/draw/win probabilities for every fixture. The model is then priced against the real odds market — the market always owns the final number.
Are these betting tips?
No — they are model probabilities published as research. Probabilities carry uncertainty and no outcome is certain; judge the process on the public track record, which grades every published call against the closing line.
How do I know the model is any good?
The track record page publishes calibration (predicted vs observed frequencies), closing-line value on every call, and a held-out walk-forward backtest — process metrics first, never performance claims.
Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 26 October at 08:07 UK time. · engine slate assembled 16 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.