Serie A - Italy Predictions — Model Probabilities
Research, not instructions — the model states a probability, never a selection.
Want to slice this yourself?
Open in Explorer — model probabilities preset →
This page selects every fixture on the current snapshot that carries a full model view — win, draw and win probabilities plus the most likely scoreline. A fixture the engine has not yet scored is left out rather than shown with an assumed number.
0 fixtures of 19 considered
All leagues
3. Liga - GermanyAllsvenskan - SwedenAustrian Football BundesligaBelgium First DivBrazil Série ABrazil Série BBundesliga - GermanyBundesliga 2 - GermanyChampionshipCopa LibertadoresCopa SudamericanaCoppa ItaliaDenmark SuperligaDutch EredivisieEFL CupEkstraklasa - PolandEliteserien - NorwayEPLFA CupFrauen-BundesligaJ LeagueK League 1La Liga - SpainLa Liga 2 - SpainLeague 1League 2League of IrelandLiga MXLigue 1 - FranceLigue 2 - FranceMLSPremiership - ScotlandPrimeira Liga - PortugalPrimera División - ArgentinaPrimera División - ChileSaudi Pro LeagueSerie A - ItalySerie B - ItalySuper League - ChinaSuper League - GreeceSuperettan - SwedenSwiss SuperleagueTurkey Super LeagueUEFA Europa LeagueVeikkausliiga - Finland
Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 11 September at 08:02 UK time.
| Match | Kickoff (UK) | Model 1X2 | Most likely score |
|---|---|---|---|
 Venezia v Fiorentina
|
Fri 11 Sept, 19:45 | — | — |
 Genoa v Frosinone
|
Sat 12 Sept, 14:00 | — | — |
 Sassuolo v Juventus
|
Sat 12 Sept, 17:00 | — | — |
 Lazio v AC Milan
|
Sat 12 Sept, 17:00 | — | — |
 Atalanta BC v Cagliari
|
Sat 12 Sept, 19:45 | — | — |
 Lecce v Monza
|
Sun 13 Sept, 14:00 | — | — |
 Napoli v Bologna
|
Sun 13 Sept, 17:00 | — | — |
Sassuolo v Juventus
|
Sun 13 Sept, 19:45 | — | — |
 Torino v AS Roma
|
Mon 14 Sept, 17:30 | — | — |
 Como v Parma
|
Mon 14 Sept, 17:30 | — | — |
| Torino v AS Roma
|
Mon 14 Sept, 17:30 | — | — |
| Como v Parma
|
Mon 14 Sept, 17:30 | — | — |
 Inter Milan v Udinese
|
Mon 14 Sept, 19:45 | — | — |
| Monza v Sassuolo
|
Fri 18 Sept, 19:45 | — | — |
| Udinese v Cagliari
|
Sat 19 Sept, 14:00 | — | — |
| Bologna v Torino
|
Sat 19 Sept, 14:00 | — | — |
| AS Roma v Inter Milan
|
Sat 19 Sept, 17:00 | — | — |
| Venezia v Lazio
|
Sat 19 Sept, 19:45 | — | — |
| Fiorentina v Napoli
|
Sun 20 Sept, 11:30 | — | — |
Read the full picture. Every row links to the fixture's prediction
view: expected goals, fair odds, price movement and the grounded team-news brief. The
track record grades every published call in the open.
Frequently asked questions
How are these serie a - italy predictions made?
A Dixon-Coles + ELO statistical model, trained continuously on a growing results archive, produces expected goals per team and win/draw/win probabilities for every fixture. The model is then priced against the real odds market — the market always owns the final number.
Are these betting tips?
No — they are model probabilities published as research. Probabilities carry uncertainty and no outcome is certain; judge the process on the public track record, which grades every published call against the closing line.
How do I know the model is any good?
The track record page publishes calibration (predicted vs observed frequencies), closing-line value on every call, and a held-out walk-forward backtest — process metrics first, never performance claims.
Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 11 September at 08:02 UK time. · engine slate assembled 12 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.