Liga MX Predictions — Model Probabilities
Model probabilities for every Liga MX fixture on the live snapshot — 18 of 18 carry a full model view. Research, not instructions.
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| Match | Kickoff (UK) | Model 1X2 | Most likely score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Necaxa v Atlante FC | Fri 17 Jul, 02:00 | 61% / 23% / 16% | 1-1 |
| Tijuana v Tigres | Fri 17 Jul, 04:10 | 45% / 28% / 26% | 1-1 |
| León v Atlas | Sat 18 Jul, 02:00 | 45% / 28% / 26% | 1-1 |
| Atlético San Luis v Cruz Azul | Sat 18 Jul, 02:00 | 45% / 28% / 26% | 1-1 |
| FC Juárez v Puebla | Sat 18 Jul, 04:00 | 45% / 28% / 26% | 1-1 |
| Pumas v Pachuca | Sun 19 Jul, 00:00 | 45% / 28% / 26% | 1-1 |
| Monterrey v Santos Laguna | Sun 19 Jul, 02:00 | 56% / 24% / 19% | 1-1 |
| Guadalajara v Toluca | Sun 19 Jul, 02:07 | 45% / 28% / 26% | 1-1 |
| Querétaro v América | Sun 19 Jul, 04:00 | 45% / 28% / 26% | 1-1 |
| Cruz Azul v Puebla | Wed 22 Jul, 02:00 | 60% / 25% / 15% | 1-1 |
| Toluca v Pumas | Wed 22 Jul, 04:00 | 45% / 28% / 26% | 1-1 |
| Tigres v Atlético San Luis | Sat 25 Jul, 02:00 | 45% / 28% / 26% | 1-1 |
| Atlante FC v América | Sat 25 Jul, 04:00 | 45% / 28% / 26% | 1-1 |
| Tijuana v León | Sat 25 Jul, 04:00 | 45% / 28% / 26% | 1-1 |
| Guadalajara v FC Juárez | Sun 26 Jul, 00:07 | 45% / 28% / 26% | 1-1 |
| Santos Laguna v Atlas | Sun 26 Jul, 04:00 | 51% / 27% / 22% | 1-1 |
| Necaxa v Monterrey | Mon 27 Jul, 00:00 | 34% / 29% / 37% | 1-1 |
| Pachuca v Querétaro | Mon 27 Jul, 02:00 | 58% / 25% / 17% | 1-1 |
Read the full picture. Every row links to the fixture's prediction
view: expected goals, fair odds, price movement and the grounded team-news brief. The
track record grades every published call in the open.
Frequently asked questions
How are these liga mx predictions made?
A Dixon-Coles + ELO statistical model, trained continuously on a growing results archive, produces expected goals per team and win/draw/win probabilities for every fixture. The model is then priced against the real odds market — the market always owns the final number.
Are these betting tips?
No — they are model probabilities published as research. Probabilities carry uncertainty and no outcome is certain; judge the process on the public track record, which grades every published call against the closing line.
How do I know the model is any good?
The track record page publishes calibration (predicted vs observed frequencies), closing-line value on every call, and a held-out walk-forward backtest — process metrics first, never performance claims.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.