Pachuca v Querétaro PREDICTION
LM Mon 27 Jul, 02:00 UK · in 12d
1X2 · PachucaModel behind market recent
Market
1.55
price
64.5%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
1.70
fair price
58.9%
fair prob
Our model
1.71
model fair price
58.4%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 59%model 58%
Model divergence -0.5 pts
Edge vs fair -8.7%
6 books priced
Model · 1X2
Pachuca
58%
Draw
25%
Querétaro
17%
market fair (devig · consensus): 59% / 23% / 18%
Expected goals (λ)
1.864 — 0.905
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Pachuca 58% against the market’s fair 59% — a -0.5 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.864–0.905 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Pachuca 42% · Querétaro 10% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Liga MX fixtures
Necaxa v Atlante FCTijuana v TigresLeón v AtlasAtlético San Luis v Cruz AzulFC Juárez v PueblaPumas v Pachuca
Frequently asked questions
When do Pachuca play Querétaro?
Kick-off is Mon 27 Jul, 02:00 UK time in the Liga MX.
What does the model expect for Pachuca v Querétaro?
The statistical model prices Pachuca at 58%, the draw at 25% and Querétaro at 17%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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