Pachuca v Querétaro
1X2 · PachucaModel behind market recent
Market
1.55
price
64.5%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
1.70
fair price
58.9%
fair prob
Our model
1.71
model fair price
58.4%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 59%model 58%
Model divergence -0.5 pts
Edge vs fair -8.7%
6 books priced
Model · 1X2
Pachuca
58%
Draw
25%
Querétaro
17%
market fair (devig · consensus): 59% / 23% / 18%
Expected goals (λ)
1.864 — 0.905
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Pachuca 58% against the market’s fair 59% — a -0.5 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.864–0.905 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Pachuca 42% · Querétaro 10% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pachuca | 58.4% | 1.70 | 1.55 | -8.7% |
| Draw | 25.1% | 4.39 | 4.00 | -8.8% |
| Querétaro | 16.5% | 5.46 | 5.00 | -8.5% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Pachuca | Draw | Querétaro |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas | 1.55 | 3.85 | 5.00 |
| 888sport | 1.53 | 3.50 | 5.00 |
| William Hill | 1.55 | 3.50 | 5.00 |
| Sky Bet | 1.50 | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| Paddy Power | 1.53 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Betfair | 1.04 | 1.02 | 1.04 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Pachuca — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — PachucaFair line (devig) — Pachuca
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Pachuca
LWWWLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.5 / 1.08
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | A v UNAM Pumas | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-15 | H v UNAM Pumas | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-05-11 | H v Toluca | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-05-04 | A v Toluca | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-04-26 | H v UNAM Pumas | 0-2 | L |
Querétaro
WDDWDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1 / 1.33
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | A v Puebla | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-04-22 | H v Cruz Azul | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-04-18 | A v Mazatlan FC | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-04-12 | H v Necaxa | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-04-08 | H v Juarez | 1-1 | D |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | Queretaro v Pachuca | 0-0 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2025-09-21 | Pachuca v Queretaro | 0-2 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2025-01-30 | Queretaro v Pachuca | 0-1 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2024-09-01 | Pachuca v Queretaro | 1-1 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2024-03-10 | Pachuca v Queretaro | 1-2 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2023-08-21 | Queretaro v Pachuca | 1-1 | Mexico Liga MX |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Liga MX fixtures
Necaxa v Atlante FCTijuana v TigresLeón v AtlasAtlético San Luis v Cruz AzulFC Juárez v PueblaPumas v Pachuca
Frequently asked questions
When do Pachuca play Querétaro?
Kick-off is Mon 27 Jul, 02:00 UK time in the Liga MX.
What does the model expect for Pachuca v Querétaro?
The statistical model prices Pachuca at 58%, the draw at 25% and Querétaro at 17%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Pachuca v Querétaro?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.70 / 4.39 / 5.46 (consensus, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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