Atlético San Luis v Cruz Azul
1X2 · Atlético San LuisModel behind market recent
Market
4.00
price
25.0%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
4.18
fair price
23.9%
fair prob
Our model
2.20
model fair price
45.4%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 24%model 45%
Model divergence +21.5 pts
Edge vs fair -4.4%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Atlético San Luis
45%
Draw
28%
Cruz Azul
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 24% / 26% / 51%
Expected goals (λ)
1.57 — 1.153
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Atlético San Luis 45% against the market’s fair 24% — a +21.5 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.57–1.153 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Atlético San Luis 30% · Cruz Azul 17% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético San Luis | 45.4% | 4.18 | 4.00 | -4.4% |
| Draw | 28.2% | 3.92 | 3.75 | -4.4% |
| Cruz Azul | 26.4% | 1.98 | 1.90 | -3.9% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.70 · Under: 2.06 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Atlético San Luis | Draw | Cruz Azul |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas | 3.70 | 3.50 | 1.83 |
| Paddy Power | 3.70 | 3.60 | 1.85 |
| Betfair | 4.00 | 3.75 | 1.89 |
| Sky Bet | 3.40 | 3.30 | 1.80 |
| Smarkets | 3.95 | 3.70 | 1.88 |
| Casumo | 3.90 | 3.65 | 1.83 |
| Grosvenor | 3.90 | 3.65 | 1.83 |
| LiveScore Bet | 3.80 | 3.55 | 1.80 |
| Virgin Bet | 3.75 | 3.50 | 1.78 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 3.80 | 3.70 | 1.90 |
| Betfred (UK) | 3.60 | 3.50 | 1.83 |
| 888sport | 3.50 | 3.30 | 1.85 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 3.98 / 3.73 / 1.88 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Atlético San Luis — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Atlético San LuisFair line (devig) — Atlético San Luis
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Atlético San Luis
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Cruz Azul
WDWDWW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.58 / 1.08
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 83% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 83% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | A v UNAM Pumas | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-22 | H v UNAM Pumas | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-05-17 | A v Guadalajara Chivas | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-14 | H v Guadalajara Chivas | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-10 | H v Atlas | 1-0 | W |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Liga MX fixtures
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Frequently asked questions
When do Atlético San Luis play Cruz Azul?
Kick-off is Sat 18 Jul, 02:00 UK time in the Liga MX.
What does the model expect for Atlético San Luis v Cruz Azul?
The statistical model prices Atlético San Luis at 45%, the draw at 28% and Cruz Azul at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Atlético San Luis v Cruz Azul?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 4.18 / 3.92 / 1.98 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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