FC Juárez v Puebla
1X2 · FC JuárezModel behind market recent
Market
1.72
price
58.1%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.74
fair price
57.5%
fair prob
Our model
2.20
model fair price
45.4%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 57%model 45%
Model divergence -12.1 pts
Edge vs fair -1.1%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
FC Juárez
45%
Draw
28%
Puebla
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 57% / 23% / 19%
Expected goals (λ)
1.57 — 1.153
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices FC Juárez 45% against the market’s fair 57% — a -12.1 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.57–1.153 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): FC Juárez 30% · Puebla 17% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Juárez | 45.4% | 1.74 | 1.72 | -1.1% |
| Draw | 28.2% | 4.31 | 4.00 | -7.2% |
| Puebla | 26.4% | 5.18 | 5.00 | -3.5% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.68 · Under: 2.10 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | FC Juárez | Draw | Puebla |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power | 1.62 | 3.80 | 4.50 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| LeoVegas | 1.60 | 3.85 | 4.60 |
| 888sport | 1.61 | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| Sky Bet | 1.60 | 3.50 | 4.20 |
| Smarkets | 1.64 | 3.60 | 4.90 |
| Casumo | 1.72 | 3.80 | 4.30 |
| Grosvenor | 1.72 | 3.80 | 4.30 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.68 | 3.75 | 4.20 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.67 | 3.70 | 4.20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.67 | 3.90 | 4.75 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.62 | 3.75 | 4.50 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.65 / 4.08 / 4.91 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · FC Juárez — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — FC JuárezFair line (devig) — FC Juárez
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
FC Juárez
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Puebla
LLLLDL
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.92 / 1.92
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | H v Queretaro | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-04-22 | A v Monterrey | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-04-19 | A v Guadalajara Chivas | 0-5 | L |
| 2026-04-11 | H v Club Leon | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-04-04 | H v Juarez | 1-1 | D |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Liga MX fixtures
Necaxa v Atlante FCTijuana v TigresLeón v AtlasAtlético San Luis v Cruz AzulPumas v PachucaMonterrey v Santos Laguna
Frequently asked questions
When do FC Juárez play Puebla?
Kick-off is Sat 18 Jul, 04:00 UK time in the Liga MX.
What does the model expect for FC Juárez v Puebla?
The statistical model prices FC Juárez at 45%, the draw at 28% and Puebla at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for FC Juárez v Puebla?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.74 / 4.31 / 5.18 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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