Monterrey v Santos Laguna
1X2 · MonterreyModel behind market recent
Market
1.56
price
64.1%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.63
fair price
61.5%
fair prob
Our model
1.77
model fair price
56.4%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 62%model 56%
Model divergence -5.1 pts
Edge vs fair -4.1%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Monterrey
56%
Draw
24%
Santos Laguna
19%
market fair (devig · sharp): 62% / 20% / 18%
Expected goals (λ)
1.984 — 1.101
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Monterrey 56% against the market’s fair 62% — a -5.1 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.984–1.101 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Monterrey 42% · Santos Laguna 13% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monterrey | 56.4% | 1.63 | 1.56 | -4.1% |
| Draw | 24.2% | 4.90 | 4.80 | -2.1% |
| Santos Laguna | 19.4% | 5.52 | 5.80 | +5% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Monterrey | Draw | Santos Laguna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 1.56 | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| Paddy Power | 1.44 | 4.50 | 5.00 |
| William Hill | 1.50 | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| LeoVegas | 1.50 | 4.40 | 4.95 |
| 888sport | 1.50 | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| Sky Bet | 1.44 | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| Smarkets | 1.55 | 4.70 | 5.70 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.50 | 4.50 | 5.00 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.44 | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| Bet Victor | 1.50 | 4.40 | 5.25 |
| Betano (UK) | 1.50 | 4.40 | 5.25 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.52 | 4.50 | 5.25 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.54 / 4.65 / 5.23 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Monterrey — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — MonterreyFair line (devig) — Monterrey
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Monterrey
LWLDLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.08 / 1.58
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | A v Santos Laguna | 0-3 | L |
| 2026-04-22 | H v Puebla | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-04-19 | H v Pachuca | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-04-12 | A v Atlas | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-04-05 | H v Atl. San Luis | 1-2 | L |
Santos Laguna
WLLLDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.25 / 1.75
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | H v Monterrey | 3-0 | W |
| 2026-04-23 | A v Atl. San Luis | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-04-20 | H v Atlas | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-04-12 | A v Pachuca | 2-4 | L |
| 2026-04-05 | H v Club America | 1-1 | D |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | Santos Laguna v Monterrey | 3-0 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2025-09-28 | Monterrey v Santos Laguna | 1-0 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2025-03-03 | Monterrey v Santos Laguna | 4-2 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2024-09-15 | Santos Laguna v Monterrey | 0-2 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2024-01-22 | Santos Laguna v Monterrey | 0-2 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2023-11-09 | Monterrey v Santos Laguna | 3-0 | Mexico Liga MX |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Liga MX fixtures
Necaxa v Atlante FCTijuana v TigresLeón v AtlasAtlético San Luis v Cruz AzulFC Juárez v PueblaPumas v Pachuca
Frequently asked questions
When do Monterrey play Santos Laguna?
Kick-off is Sun 19 Jul, 02:00 UK time in the Liga MX.
What does the model expect for Monterrey v Santos Laguna?
The statistical model prices Monterrey at 56%, the draw at 24% and Santos Laguna at 19%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Monterrey v Santos Laguna?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.63 / 4.90 / 5.52 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
Sign in to open match intelligence
Model probabilities, fair odds, price movement and the grounded brief for every fixture — free with an account. One email, no card.
Create a free account See the open track recordThe track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.