Pumas v Pachuca
1X2 · PumasModel behind market recent
Market
2.30
price
43.5%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.42
fair price
41.4%
fair prob
Our model
2.20
model fair price
45.4%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 41%model 45%
Model divergence +4 pts
Edge vs fair -4.8%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Pumas
45%
Draw
28%
Pachuca
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 41% / 28% / 31%
Expected goals (λ)
1.57 — 1.153
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Pumas 45% against the market’s fair 41% — a +4 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.57–1.153 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Pumas 30% · Pachuca 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pumas | 45.4% | 2.42 | 2.30 | -4.8% |
| Draw | 28.2% | 3.62 | 3.60 | -0.6% |
| Pachuca | 26.4% | 3.24 | 3.05 | -5.8% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.75 · Under: 2.05 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Pumas | Draw | Pachuca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power | 2.20 | 3.50 | 2.80 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.10 | 2.90 |
| LeoVegas | 2.20 | 3.30 | 2.85 |
| 888sport | 2.20 | 3.10 | 2.90 |
| Sky Bet | 2.15 | 3.25 | 2.63 |
| Smarkets | 2.22 | 3.10 | 3.00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 2.25 | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| Betfred (UK) | 2.20 | 3.40 | 2.75 |
| Bet Victor | 2.25 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
| Betano (UK) | 2.25 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.30 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
| Casumo | 2.20 | 3.50 | 3.00 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.30 / 3.45 / 3.08 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Pumas — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — PumasFair line (devig) — Pumas
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Pumas
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Pachuca
LWWWLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.5 / 1.08
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | A v UNAM Pumas | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-15 | H v UNAM Pumas | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-05-11 | H v Toluca | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-05-04 | A v Toluca | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-04-26 | H v UNAM Pumas | 0-2 | L |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Liga MX fixtures
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Frequently asked questions
When do Pumas play Pachuca?
Kick-off is Sun 19 Jul, 00:00 UK time in the Liga MX.
What does the model expect for Pumas v Pachuca?
The statistical model prices Pumas at 45%, the draw at 28% and Pachuca at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Pumas v Pachuca?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.42 / 3.62 / 3.24 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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