Necaxa v Atlante FC
1X2 · NecaxaModel behind market recent
Market
1.93
price
51.8%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.97
fair price
50.8%
fair prob
Our model
1.63
model fair price
61.3%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 51%model 61%
Model divergence +10.5 pts
Edge vs fair -2%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Necaxa
61%
Draw
23%
Atlante FC
16%
market fair (devig · sharp): 51% / 25% / 24%
Expected goals (λ)
2.151 — 1.041
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Necaxa 61% against the market’s fair 51% — a +10.5 pt divergence, from expected goals 2.151–1.041 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Necaxa 47% · Atlante FC 11% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Necaxa | 61.3% | 1.97 | 1.93 | -2% |
| Draw | 22.5% | 3.98 | 3.80 | -4.6% |
| Atlante FC | 16.2% | 4.13 | 3.90 | -5.6% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.76 · Under: 2.18 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Necaxa | Draw | Atlante FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas | 1.85 | 3.55 | 3.55 |
| Betfair | 1.91 | 3.80 | 3.90 |
| Sky Bet | 1.83 | 3.50 | 3.40 |
| William Hill | 1.83 | 3.30 | 3.50 |
| 888sport | 1.83 | 3.30 | 3.50 |
| Paddy Power | 1.85 | 3.70 | 3.50 |
| Smarkets | 1.92 | 3.80 | 3.90 |
| Casumo | 1.88 | 3.50 | 3.85 |
| Grosvenor | 1.88 | 3.50 | 3.85 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.84 | 3.45 | 3.80 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.82 | 3.40 | 3.75 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.91 | 3.80 | 3.60 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.87 / 3.79 / 3.93 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Necaxa — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — NecaxaFair line (devig) — Necaxa
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Necaxa
LDDLWW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1 / 1.5
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | A v Cruz Azul | 1-4 | L |
| 2026-04-23 | H v Guadalajara Chivas | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-04-19 | H v Tigres UANL | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-04-12 | A v Queretaro | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-04-04 | H v Mazatlan FC | 2-1 | W |
Atlante FC
LLLLLW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.5 / 2.42
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-04-27 | A v Chiapas | 2-5 | L |
| 2014-04-20 | H v Club Tijuana | 1-2 | L |
| 2014-04-14 | A v Santos Laguna | 3-4 | L |
| 2014-04-06 | H v Tigres UANL | 0-2 | L |
| 2014-03-30 | A v Monterrey | 2-3 | L |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Liga MX fixtures
Tijuana v TigresLeón v AtlasAtlético San Luis v Cruz AzulFC Juárez v PueblaPumas v PachucaMonterrey v Santos Laguna
Frequently asked questions
When do Necaxa play Atlante FC?
Kick-off is Fri 17 Jul, 02:00 UK time in the Liga MX.
What does the model expect for Necaxa v Atlante FC?
The statistical model prices Necaxa at 61%, the draw at 23% and Atlante FC at 16%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Necaxa v Atlante FC?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.97 / 3.98 / 4.13 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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