León v Atlas
1X2 · LeónModel behind market recent
Market
2.00
price
50.0%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
2.11
fair price
47.5%
fair prob
Our model
2.20
model fair price
45.4%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 48%model 45%
Model divergence -2.1 pts
Edge vs fair -5%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
León
45%
Draw
28%
Atlas
26%
market fair (devig · consensus): 48% / 27% / 25%
Expected goals (λ)
1.57 — 1.153
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices León 45% against the market’s fair 48% — a -2.1 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.57–1.153 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): León 30% · Atlas 17% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| León | 45.4% | 2.11 | 2.00 | -5% |
| Draw | 28.2% | 3.69 | 3.50 | -5.1% |
| Atlas | 26.4% | 3.95 | 3.75 | -5.1% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.91 · Under: 1.80 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | León | Draw | Atlas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power | 1.91 | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| LeoVegas | 1.92 | 3.30 | 3.60 |
| 888sport | 1.95 | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| Sky Bet | 1.85 | 3.10 | 3.30 |
| Smarkets | 1.85 | 3.05 | 3.35 |
| Casumo | 1.96 | 3.45 | 3.60 |
| Grosvenor | 1.96 | 3.45 | 3.60 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.93 | 3.35 | 3.55 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.91 | 3.35 | 3.50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.91 | 3.50 | 3.70 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.91 | 3.30 | 3.50 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · León — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — LeónFair line (devig) — León
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
León
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Atlas
LLWDWD
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.75 / 1.08
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 42%
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 42%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | A v Cruz Azul | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-03 | H v Cruz Azul | 2-3 | L |
| 2026-04-26 | A v Club America | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-04-23 | H v Tigres UANL | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-04-20 | A v Santos Laguna | 1-0 | W |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Liga MX fixtures
Necaxa v Atlante FCTijuana v TigresAtlético San Luis v Cruz AzulFC Juárez v PueblaPumas v PachucaMonterrey v Santos Laguna
Frequently asked questions
When do León play Atlas?
Kick-off is Sat 18 Jul, 02:00 UK time in the Liga MX.
What does the model expect for León v Atlas?
The statistical model prices León at 45%, the draw at 28% and Atlas at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for León v Atlas?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.11 / 3.69 / 3.95 (consensus, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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