Atlético San Luis v Cruz Azul PREDICTION
LM Sat 18 Jul, 02:00 UK · in 3d
1X2 · Atlético San LuisModel behind market recent
Market
4.00
price
25.0%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
4.18
fair price
23.9%
fair prob
Our model
2.20
model fair price
45.4%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 24%model 45%
Model divergence +21.5 pts
Edge vs fair -4.4%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Atlético San Luis
45%
Draw
28%
Cruz Azul
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 24% / 26% / 51%
Expected goals (λ)
1.57 — 1.153
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Atlético San Luis 45% against the market’s fair 24% — a +21.5 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.57–1.153 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Atlético San Luis 30% · Cruz Azul 17% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
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Frequently asked questions
When do Atlético San Luis play Cruz Azul?
Kick-off is Sat 18 Jul, 02:00 UK time in the Liga MX.
What does the model expect for Atlético San Luis v Cruz Azul?
The statistical model prices Atlético San Luis at 45%, the draw at 28% and Cruz Azul at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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