Tigres v Atlético San Luis PREDICTION
LM Sat 25 Jul, 02:00 UK · in 10d
1X2 · TigresModel behind market recent
Market
1.36
price
73.5%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
1.47
fair price
68.1%
fair prob
Our model
2.20
model fair price
45.4%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 68%model 45%
Model divergence -22.7 pts
Edge vs fair -7.4%
6 books priced
Model · 1X2
Tigres
45%
Draw
28%
Atlético San Luis
26%
market fair (devig · consensus): 68% / 20% / 12%
Expected goals (λ)
1.57 — 1.153
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Tigres 45% against the market’s fair 68% — a -22.7 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.57–1.153 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Tigres 31% · Atlético San Luis 17% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Liga MX fixtures
Necaxa v Atlante FCTijuana v TigresLeón v AtlasAtlético San Luis v Cruz AzulFC Juárez v PueblaPumas v Pachuca
Frequently asked questions
When do Tigres play Atlético San Luis?
Kick-off is Sat 25 Jul, 02:00 UK time in the Liga MX.
What does the model expect for Tigres v Atlético San Luis?
The statistical model prices Tigres at 45%, the draw at 28% and Atlético San Luis at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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