Tigres v Atlético San Luis
1X2 · TigresModel behind market recent
Market
1.36
price
73.5%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
1.47
fair price
68.1%
fair prob
Our model
2.20
model fair price
45.4%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 68%model 45%
Model divergence -22.7 pts
Edge vs fair -7.4%
6 books priced
Model · 1X2
Tigres
45%
Draw
28%
Atlético San Luis
26%
market fair (devig · consensus): 68% / 20% / 12%
Expected goals (λ)
1.57 — 1.153
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Tigres 45% against the market’s fair 68% — a -22.7 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.57–1.153 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Tigres 31% · Atlético San Luis 17% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tigres | 45.4% | 1.47 | 1.36 | -7.4% |
| Draw | 28.2% | 5.13 | 4.75 | -7.4% |
| Atlético San Luis | 26.4% | 8.06 | 7.50 | -7% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Tigres | Draw | Atlético San Luis |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas | 1.33 | 4.65 | 7.20 |
| William Hill | 1.36 | 4.00 | 7.50 |
| 888sport | 1.36 | 4.00 | 7.50 |
| Sky Bet | 1.33 | 4.33 | 6.25 |
| Paddy Power | 1.30 | 4.75 | 7.50 |
| Betfair | 1.04 | 1.02 | 1.04 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Tigres — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — TigresFair line (devig) — Tigres
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Tigres
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Atlético San Luis
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Liga MX fixtures
Necaxa v Atlante FCTijuana v TigresLeón v AtlasAtlético San Luis v Cruz AzulFC Juárez v PueblaPumas v Pachuca
Frequently asked questions
When do Tigres play Atlético San Luis?
Kick-off is Sat 25 Jul, 02:00 UK time in the Liga MX.
What does the model expect for Tigres v Atlético San Luis?
The statistical model prices Tigres at 45%, the draw at 28% and Atlético San Luis at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Tigres v Atlético San Luis?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.47 / 5.13 / 8.06 (consensus, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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