Copa Sudamericana Predictions — Model Probabilities
Model probabilities for every Copa Sudamericana fixture on the live snapshot — 8 of 8 carry a full model view. Research, not instructions.
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| Match | Kickoff (UK) | Model 1X2 | Most likely score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional de Montevideo v CA Tigre BA | Tue 21 Jul, 23:00 | 47% / 28% / 25% | 1-1 |
| UCV FC v Santos | Wed 22 Jul, 01:30 | 47% / 28% / 25% | 1-1 |
| Independiente Medellín v Vasco da Gama | Wed 22 Jul, 23:00 | 47% / 28% / 25% | 1-1 |
| Sporting Cristal v Bragantino-SP | Thu 23 Jul, 01:30 | 47% / 28% / 25% | 1-1 |
| Lanus v Club Cienciano | Thu 23 Jul, 01:30 | 47% / 28% / 25% | 1-1 |
| Club Bolívar v Grêmio | Thu 23 Jul, 23:00 | 47% / 28% / 25% | 1-1 |
| Boca Juniors v O'Higgins | Fri 24 Jul, 01:30 | 47% / 28% / 25% | 1-1 |
| Independiente Santa Fe v Caracas FC | Fri 24 Jul, 01:30 | 47% / 28% / 25% | 1-1 |
Read the full picture. Every row links to the fixture's prediction
view: expected goals, fair odds, price movement and the grounded team-news brief. The
track record grades every published call in the open.
Frequently asked questions
How are these copa sudamericana predictions made?
A Dixon-Coles + ELO statistical model, trained continuously on a growing results archive, produces expected goals per team and win/draw/win probabilities for every fixture. The model is then priced against the real odds market — the market always owns the final number.
Are these betting tips?
No — they are model probabilities published as research. Probabilities carry uncertainty and no outcome is certain; judge the process on the public track record, which grades every published call against the closing line.
How do I know the model is any good?
The track record page publishes calibration (predicted vs observed frequencies), closing-line value on every call, and a held-out walk-forward backtest — process metrics first, never performance claims.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.