MLS Predictions — Model Probabilities
Model probabilities for every MLS fixture on the live snapshot — 21 of 21 carry a full model view. Research, not instructions.
All leagues
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| Match | Kickoff (UK) | Model 1X2 | Most likely score |
|---|---|---|---|
| CF Montreal v Toronto FC | Fri 17 Jul, 00:30 | 50% / 26% / 25% | 1-1 |
| Chicago Fire v Vancouver Whitecaps FC | Fri 17 Jul, 01:30 | 45% / 27% / 28% | 1-1 |
| St. Louis City SC v Sporting Kansas City | Fri 17 Jul, 01:30 | 46% / 27% / 28% | 1-1 |
| Seattle Sounders FC v Portland Timbers | Fri 17 Jul, 03:30 | 56% / 26% / 19% | 1-1 |
| Nashville SC v Atlanta United FC | Sat 18 Jul, 01:10 | 50% / 26% / 24% | 1-1 |
| LA Galaxy v Los Angeles FC | Sat 18 Jul, 03:25 | 50% / 26% / 24% | 1-1 |
| Inter Miami CF v Chicago Fire | Thu 23 Jul, 00:30 | 59% / 22% / 19% | 1-1 |
| Columbus Crew SC v New York City FC | Thu 23 Jul, 00:30 | 47% / 27% / 26% | 1-1 |
| FC Cincinnati v Vancouver Whitecaps FC | Thu 23 Jul, 00:30 | 45% / 27% / 29% | 1-1 |
| New England Revolution v Toronto FC | Thu 23 Jul, 00:30 | 53% / 25% / 21% | 1-1 |
| Philadelphia Union v New York Red Bulls | Thu 23 Jul, 00:30 | 48% / 27% / 25% | 1-1 |
| Charlotte FC v Atlanta United FC | Thu 23 Jul, 01:15 | 50% / 26% / 24% | 1-1 |
| Austin FC v Seattle Sounders FC | Thu 23 Jul, 01:30 | 35% / 30% / 36% | 1-1 |
| Nashville SC v CF Montreal | Thu 23 Jul, 01:30 | 60% / 25% / 16% | 1-1 |
| Houston Dynamo v D.C. United | Thu 23 Jul, 01:30 | 50% / 26% / 24% | 1-1 |
| Sporting Kansas City v Minnesota United FC | Thu 23 Jul, 01:30 | 51% / 26% / 23% | 1-1 |
| Colorado Rapids v San Diego FC | Thu 23 Jul, 02:30 | 33% / 27% / 41% | 1-1 |
| Portland Timbers v FC Dallas | Thu 23 Jul, 03:30 | 49% / 26% / 25% | 1-1 |
| LA Galaxy v St. Louis City SC | Thu 23 Jul, 03:30 | 50% / 26% / 24% | 1-1 |
| Los Angeles FC v Real Salt Lake | Thu 23 Jul, 03:30 | 63% / 21% / 15% | 2-1 |
| San Jose Earthquakes v Orlando City SC | Thu 23 Jul, 03:30 | 48% / 25% / 27% | 1-1 |
Read the full picture. Every row links to the fixture's prediction
view: expected goals, fair odds, price movement and the grounded team-news brief. The
track record grades every published call in the open.
Frequently asked questions
How are these mls predictions made?
A Dixon-Coles + ELO statistical model, trained continuously on a growing results archive, produces expected goals per team and win/draw/win probabilities for every fixture. The model is then priced against the real odds market — the market always owns the final number.
Are these betting tips?
No — they are model probabilities published as research. Probabilities carry uncertainty and no outcome is certain; judge the process on the public track record, which grades every published call against the closing line.
How do I know the model is any good?
The track record page publishes calibration (predicted vs observed frequencies), closing-line value on every call, and a held-out walk-forward backtest — process metrics first, never performance claims.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.