MLS Predictions — Model Probabilities

Research, not instructions — the model states a probability, never a selection.

Want to slice this yourself? Open in Explorer — model probabilities preset →

This page selects every fixture on the current snapshot that carries a full model view — win, draw and win probabilities plus the most likely scoreline. A fixture the engine has not yet scored is left out rather than shown with an assumed number.

0 fixtures of 29 considered

Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 26 October at 08:07 UK time.

Match	Kickoff (UK)	Model 1X2	Most likely score
Toronto FC v D.C. United	Wed 28 Oct, 23:30	—	—
New England Revolution v New York Red Bulls	Wed 28 Oct, 23:30	—	—
Charlotte FC v CF Montreal	Wed 28 Oct, 23:30	—	—
Inter Miami CF v FC Cincinnati	Wed 28 Oct, 23:30	—	—
New York City FC v Atlanta United FC	Wed 28 Oct, 23:30	—	—
Minnesota United FC v Sporting Kansas City	Thu 29 Oct, 00:30	—	—
St. Louis City SC v Portland Timbers	Thu 29 Oct, 00:30	—	—
Nashville SC v Philadelphia Union	Thu 29 Oct, 00:30	—	—
Chicago Fire v Orlando City SC	Thu 29 Oct, 00:30	—	—
FC Dallas v Columbus Crew SC	Thu 29 Oct, 00:30	—	—
Austin FC v Real Salt Lake	Thu 29 Oct, 00:30	—	—
San Jose Earthquakes v Colorado Rapids	Thu 29 Oct, 02:30	—	—
Seattle Sounders FC v Houston Dynamo	Thu 29 Oct, 02:30	—	—
Vancouver Whitecaps FC v San Diego FC	Thu 29 Oct, 02:30	—	—
Charlotte FC v Orlando City SC	Sat 31 Oct, 17:00	—	—
FC Cincinnati v Philadelphia Union	Sat 31 Oct, 18:00	—	—
Columbus Crew SC v D.C. United	Sat 31 Oct, 18:00	—	—
New York City FC v CF Montreal	Sat 31 Oct, 18:00	—	—
Sporting Kansas City v FC Dallas	Sat 31 Oct, 19:00	—	—
St. Louis City SC v San Diego FC	Sat 31 Oct, 19:00	—	—
San Jose Earthquakes v Real Salt Lake	Sat 31 Oct, 21:00	—	—
LA Galaxy v Austin FC	Sat 31 Oct, 21:00	—	—
Colorado Rapids v Chicago Fire	Sun 1 Nov, 01:30	—	—
Vancouver Whitecaps FC v Seattle Sounders FC	Sun 1 Nov, 21:30	—	—
Atlanta United FC v Toronto FC	Sun 1 Nov, 21:30	—	—
Nashville SC v New York Red Bulls	Sun 1 Nov, 21:30	—	—
New England Revolution v Inter Miami CF	Mon 2 Nov, 00:00	—	—
Los Angeles FC v Minnesota United FC	Mon 2 Nov, 01:30	—	—
Portland Timbers v Houston Dynamo	Mon 2 Nov, 02:30	—	—

Read the full picture. Every row links to the fixture's prediction view: expected goals, fair odds, price movement and the grounded team-news brief. The track record grades every published call in the open.

Frequently asked questions

How are these mls predictions made?

A Dixon-Coles + ELO statistical model, trained continuously on a growing results archive, produces expected goals per team and win/draw/win probabilities for every fixture. The model is then priced against the real odds market — the market always owns the final number.

Are these betting tips?

No — they are model probabilities published as research. Probabilities carry uncertainty and no outcome is certain; judge the process on the public track record, which grades every published call against the closing line.

How do I know the model is any good?

The track record page publishes calibration (predicted vs observed frequencies), closing-line value on every call, and a held-out walk-forward backtest — process metrics first, never performance claims.

Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 26 October at 08:07 UK time. · engine slate assembled 16 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.