St. Louis City SC v Sporting Kansas City PREDICTION
MLS Fri 17 Jul, 01:30 UK · in 46h 16m1X2 · St. Louis City SCModel behind market recent
Market
1.47
price
68.0%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.51
fair price
66.3%
fair prob
Our model
2.18
model fair price
45.8%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 66%model 46%
Model divergence -20.5 pts
Edge vs fair -2.5%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
St. Louis City SC
46%
Draw
27%
Sporting Kansas City
28%
market fair (devig · sharp): 66% / 19% / 15%
Expected goals (λ)
1.717 — 1.298
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices St. Louis City SC 46% against the market’s fair 66% — a -20.5 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.717–1.298 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): St. Louis City SC 32% · Sporting Kansas City 19% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
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Frequently asked questions
When do St. Louis City SC play Sporting Kansas City?
Kick-off is Fri 17 Jul, 01:30 UK time in the MLS.
What does the model expect for St. Louis City SC v Sporting Kansas City?
The statistical model prices St. Louis City SC at 46%, the draw at 27% and Sporting Kansas City at 28%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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