Seattle Sounders FC v Portland Timbers
MLS1X2 · Seattle Sounders FCModel behind market recent
Market
1.50
price
66.7%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.56
fair price
64.0%
fair prob
Our model
1.80
model fair price
55.7%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 64%model 56%
Model divergence -8.3 pts
Edge vs fair -4%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Seattle Sounders FC
56%
Draw
26%
Portland Timbers
19%
market fair (devig · sharp): 64% / 19% / 17%
Expected goals (λ)
1.849 — 1.003
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Seattle Sounders FC 56% against the market’s fair 64% — a -8.3 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.849–1.003 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Seattle Sounders FC 40% · Portland Timbers 12% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Sounders FC | 55.7% | 1.56 | 1.50 | -4% |
| Draw | 25.5% | 5.24 | 5.30 | +1.2% |
| Portland Timbers | 18.9% | 5.92 | 6.00 | +1.4% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Seattle Sounders FC | Draw | Portland Timbers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 1.50 | 5.30 | 6.00 |
| Smarkets | 1.50 | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| Sky Bet | 1.44 | 4.60 | 5.50 |
| 888sport | 1.44 | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| Paddy Power | 1.44 | 4.75 | 5.50 |
| BoyleSports | 1.44 | 4.50 | 5.00 |
| LeoVegas | 1.45 | 4.65 | 5.20 |
| Coral | 1.44 | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.44 | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.44 | 4.60 | 5.50 |
| Grosvenor | 1.43 | 4.80 | 6.00 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.48 / 4.95 / 5.60 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Seattle Sounders FC — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Seattle Sounders FCFair line (devig) — Seattle Sounders FC
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Seattle Sounders FC
LLWDDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.25 / 0.92
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 33%
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 33%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | A v Los Angeles FC | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-17 | H v Los Angeles Galaxy | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-05-14 | H v San Jose Earthquakes | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-05-10 | H v San Diego FC | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-02 | A v Sporting Kansas City | 1-1 | D |
Portland Timbers
LLDWLW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.58 / 2
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | H v San Jose Earthquakes | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-05-17 | A v Inter Miami | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-05-14 | A v CF Montreal | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-10 | H v Sporting Kansas City | 6-0 | W |
| 2026-05-02 | A v Real Salt Lake | 0-2 | L |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | Seattle Sounders v Portland Timbers | 1-0 | USA MLS |
| 2025-05-18 | Portland Timbers v Seattle Sounders | 1-1 | USA MLS |
| 2024-10-20 | Seattle Sounders v Portland Timbers | 1-1 | USA MLS |
| 2024-09-01 | Portland Timbers v Seattle Sounders | 1-0 | USA MLS |
| 2024-05-12 | Portland Timbers v Seattle Sounders | 1-2 | USA MLS |
| 2023-09-03 | Seattle Sounders v Portland Timbers | 2-2 | USA MLS |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More MLS fixtures
CF Montreal v Toronto FCChicago Fire v Vancouver Whitecaps FCSt. Louis City SC v Sporting Kansas CityNashville SC v Atlanta United FCLA Galaxy v Los Angeles FCInter Miami CF v Chicago Fire
Frequently asked questions
When do Seattle Sounders FC play Portland Timbers?
Kick-off is Fri 17 Jul, 03:30 UK time in the MLS.
What does the model expect for Seattle Sounders FC v Portland Timbers?
The statistical model prices Seattle Sounders FC at 56%, the draw at 26% and Portland Timbers at 19%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Seattle Sounders FC v Portland Timbers?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.56 / 5.24 / 5.92 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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