CF Montreal v Toronto FC 
MLS1X2 · CF MontrealModel behind market recent
Market
2.04
price
49.0%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.08
fair price
48.1%
fair prob
Our model
2.01
model fair price
49.8%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 48%model 50%
Model divergence +1.7 pts
Edge vs fair -1.9%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
CF Montreal
50%
Draw
26%
Toronto FC
25%
market fair (devig · sharp): 48% / 25% / 27%
Expected goals (λ)
1.839 — 1.247
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices CF Montreal 50% against the market’s fair 48% — a +1.7 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.839–1.247 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Venue: Saputo Stadium
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): CF Montreal 36% · Toronto FC 17% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF Montreal | 49.8% | 2.08 | 2.04 | -1.9% |
| Draw | 25.6% | 4.08 | 3.85 | -5.7% |
| Toronto FC | 24.6% | 3.65 | 3.65 | 0% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.66 · Under: 2.20 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | CF Montreal | Draw | Toronto FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 2.04 | 3.85 | 3.60 |
| Smarkets | 2.02 | 3.75 | 3.65 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.50 | 3.40 |
| Sky Bet | 1.91 | 3.60 | 3.30 |
| 888sport | 1.95 | 3.50 | 3.40 |
| Paddy Power | 1.95 | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| BoyleSports | 1.87 | 3.75 | 3.20 |
| LeoVegas | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.30 |
| Coral | 1.91 | 3.50 | 3.30 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.91 | 3.50 | 3.30 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.91 | 3.75 | 3.30 |
| Grosvenor | 1.89 | 3.75 | 3.65 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.98 / 3.88 / 3.47 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · CF Montreal — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — CF MontrealFair line (devig) — CF Montreal
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
CF MontrealWDLDWL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.75 / 2
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | H v Vancouver FC | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-24 | A v DC United | 4-4 | D |
| 2026-05-16 | H v Chicago Fire | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-05-14 | H v Portland Timbers | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-09 | H v Orlando City | 2-0 | W |
Toronto FCLLLDLD
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.67 / 1.92
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 92% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 92% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | A v Chicago Fire | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-17 | A v Charlotte | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-05-09 | H v Inter Miami | 2-4 | L |
| 2026-05-02 | H v San Jose Earthquakes | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-04-25 | H v Atlanta Utd | 1-2 | L |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-31 | Toronto FC v CF Montreal | 1-1 | USA MLS |
| 2025-05-17 | CF Montreal v Toronto FC | 1-6 | USA MLS |
| 2024-07-21 | CF Montreal v Toronto FC | 0-1 | USA MLS |
| 2024-05-19 | Toronto FC v CF Montreal | 5-1 | USA MLS |
| 2023-08-21 | Toronto FC v CF Montreal | 2-3 | USA MLS |
| 2023-05-14 | CF Montreal v Toronto FC | 2-0 | USA MLS |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
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Frequently asked questions
When do CF Montreal play Toronto FC?
Kick-off is Fri 17 Jul, 00:30 UK time in the MLS.
What does the model expect for CF Montreal v Toronto FC?
The statistical model prices CF Montreal at 50%, the draw at 26% and Toronto FC at 25%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for CF Montreal v Toronto FC?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.08 / 4.08 / 3.65 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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