CF Montreal v Toronto FC 
PREDICTION
MLS Fri 17 Jul, 00:30 UK · in 45h 13m1X2 · CF MontrealModel behind market recent
Market
2.04
price
49.0%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.08
fair price
48.1%
fair prob
Our model
2.01
model fair price
49.8%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 48%model 50%
Model divergence +1.7 pts
Edge vs fair -1.9%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
CF Montreal
50%
Draw
26%
Toronto FC
25%
market fair (devig · sharp): 48% / 25% / 27%
Expected goals (λ)
1.839 — 1.247
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices CF Montreal 50% against the market’s fair 48% — a +1.7 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.839–1.247 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Venue: Saputo Stadium
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): CF Montreal 36% · Toronto FC 17% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
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Frequently asked questions
When do CF Montreal play Toronto FC?
Kick-off is Fri 17 Jul, 00:30 UK time in the MLS.
What does the model expect for CF Montreal v Toronto FC?
The statistical model prices CF Montreal at 50%, the draw at 26% and Toronto FC at 25%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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