St. Louis City SC v Sporting Kansas City
MLS1X2 · St. Louis City SCModel behind market recent
Market
1.47
price
68.0%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.51
fair price
66.3%
fair prob
Our model
2.18
model fair price
45.8%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 66%model 46%
Model divergence -20.5 pts
Edge vs fair -2.5%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
St. Louis City SC
46%
Draw
27%
Sporting Kansas City
28%
market fair (devig · sharp): 66% / 19% / 15%
Expected goals (λ)
1.717 — 1.298
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices St. Louis City SC 46% against the market’s fair 66% — a -20.5 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.717–1.298 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): St. Louis City SC 32% · Sporting Kansas City 19% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis City SC | 45.8% | 1.51 | 1.47 | -2.5% |
| Draw | 26.6% | 5.35 | 5.30 | -0.9% |
| Sporting Kansas City | 27.6% | 6.67 | 6.80 | +2% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | St. Louis City SC | Draw | Sporting Kansas City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 1.47 | 5.30 | 6.80 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| Smarkets | 1.43 | 5.20 | 6.80 |
| Sky Bet | 1.40 | 4.75 | 5.75 |
| 888sport | 1.44 | 4.60 | 5.75 |
| Paddy Power | 1.40 | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| BoyleSports | 1.36 | 4.75 | 5.50 |
| LeoVegas | 1.40 | 4.80 | 5.70 |
| Coral | 1.40 | 4.50 | 5.50 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.40 | 4.50 | 5.50 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.40 | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| Grosvenor | 1.38 | 5.00 | 6.75 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.43 / 5.07 / 6.32 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · St. Louis City SC — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — St. Louis City SCFair line (devig) — St. Louis City SC
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
St. Louis City SC
WDWWLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.25 / 1.42
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | H v Austin FC | 3-0 | W |
| 2026-05-17 | A v DC United | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-14 | H v Los Angeles FC | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-10 | A v Colorado Rapids | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-05-03 | A v Austin FC | 0-2 | L |
Sporting Kansas City
LWWLDL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1 / 2.58
Over 2.5 goals: 83% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 83% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | H v New York Red Bulls | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-17 | A v Austin FC | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-14 | H v Los Angeles Galaxy | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-05-10 | A v Portland Timbers | 0-6 | L |
| 2026-05-02 | H v Seattle Sounders | 1-1 | D |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-15 | St. Louis City v Sporting Kansas City | 2-2 | USA MLS |
| 2025-04-06 | Sporting Kansas City v St. Louis City | 2-0 | USA MLS |
| 2024-09-29 | St. Louis City v Sporting Kansas City | 3-1 | USA MLS |
| 2024-07-21 | Sporting Kansas City v St. Louis City | 1-1 | USA MLS |
| 2024-04-21 | Sporting Kansas City v St. Louis City | 3-3 | USA MLS |
| 2023-11-05 | Sporting Kansas City v St. Louis City | 2-1 | USA MLS |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
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Frequently asked questions
When do St. Louis City SC play Sporting Kansas City?
Kick-off is Fri 17 Jul, 01:30 UK time in the MLS.
What does the model expect for St. Louis City SC v Sporting Kansas City?
The statistical model prices St. Louis City SC at 46%, the draw at 27% and Sporting Kansas City at 28%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for St. Louis City SC v Sporting Kansas City?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.51 / 5.35 / 6.67 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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