Inter Miami CF v Chicago Fire
MLS1X2 · Inter Miami CFModel behind market recent
Market
1.62
price
61.7%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
1.70
fair price
58.8%
fair prob
Our model
1.71
model fair price
58.6%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 59%model 59%
Model divergence -0.2 pts
Edge vs fair -4.7%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Inter Miami CF
59%
Draw
22%
Chicago Fire
19%
market fair (devig · consensus): 59% / 20% / 21%
Expected goals (λ)
2.245 — 1.243
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Inter Miami CF 59% against the market’s fair 59% — a -0.2 pt divergence, from expected goals 2.245–1.243 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Inter Miami CF 46% · Chicago Fire 15% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter Miami CF | 58.6% | 1.70 | 1.62 | -4.7% |
| Draw | 22.1% | 5.00 | 4.75 | -5% |
| Chicago Fire | 19.3% | 4.72 | 4.50 | -4.6% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Inter Miami CF | Draw | Chicago Fire |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas | 1.57 | 4.35 | 4.20 |
| Paddy Power | 1.57 | 4.75 | 4.50 |
| Sky Bet | 1.53 | 4.33 | 4.20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.57 | 4.75 | 4.50 |
| 888sport | 1.61 | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| Smarkets | 1.51 | 4.00 | 3.95 |
| Bet Victor | 1.55 | 4.50 | 4.33 |
| Betano (UK) | 1.55 | 4.50 | 4.33 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.57 | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| Coral | 1.57 | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.57 | 4.60 | 4.33 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Inter Miami CF — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Inter Miami CFFair line (devig) — Inter Miami CF
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Inter Miami CF
WWWWLD
Goals for/against (last 12): 2.75 / 1.83
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | H v Philadelphia Union | 6-4 | W |
| 2026-05-17 | H v Portland Timbers | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-05-14 | A v FC Cincinnati | 5-3 | W |
| 2026-05-09 | A v Toronto FC | 4-2 | W |
| 2026-05-03 | H v Orlando City | 3-4 | L |
Chicago Fire
WWWLLW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.92 / 1.17
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 42%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 42%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | H v Toronto FC | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-16 | A v CF Montreal | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-05-14 | A v DC United | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-05-09 | H v New York Red Bulls | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-05-03 | H v FC Cincinnati | 2-3 | L |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-01 | Inter Miami v Chicago Fire | 3-5 | USA MLS |
| 2025-04-13 | Chicago Fire v Inter Miami | 0-0 | USA MLS |
| 2024-09-01 | Chicago Fire v Inter Miami | 1-4 | USA MLS |
| 2024-07-21 | Inter Miami v Chicago Fire | 2-1 | USA MLS |
| 2023-10-05 | Chicago Fire v Inter Miami | 4-1 | USA MLS |
| 2023-03-25 | Inter Miami v Chicago Fire | 2-3 | USA MLS |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More MLS fixtures
CF Montreal v Toronto FCChicago Fire v Vancouver Whitecaps FCSt. Louis City SC v Sporting Kansas CitySeattle Sounders FC v Portland TimbersNashville SC v Atlanta United FCLA Galaxy v Los Angeles FC
Frequently asked questions
When do Inter Miami CF play Chicago Fire?
Kick-off is Thu 23 Jul, 00:30 UK time in the MLS.
What does the model expect for Inter Miami CF v Chicago Fire?
The statistical model prices Inter Miami CF at 59%, the draw at 22% and Chicago Fire at 19%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Inter Miami CF v Chicago Fire?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.70 / 5.00 / 4.72 (consensus, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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