Nashville SC v Atlanta United FC
MLS1X2 · Nashville SCModel behind market recent
Market
1.44
price
69.4%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.52
fair price
65.6%
fair prob
Our model
2.02
model fair price
49.6%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 66%model 50%
Model divergence -16 pts
Edge vs fair -5.5%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Nashville SC
50%
Draw
26%
Atlanta United FC
24%
market fair (devig · sharp): 66% / 20% / 14%
Expected goals (λ)
1.78 — 1.196
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Nashville SC 50% against the market’s fair 66% — a -16 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.78–1.196 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Nashville SC 35% · Atlanta United FC 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC | 49.6% | 1.52 | 1.44 | -5.5% |
| Draw | 26.2% | 5.03 | 5.00 | -0.5% |
| Atlanta United FC | 24.3% | 6.94 | 8.00 | +15.2% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.67 · Under: 2.32 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Nashville SC | Draw | Atlanta United FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 1.43 | 4.70 | 7.60 |
| Smarkets | 1.41 | 4.50 | 7.40 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| Sky Bet | 1.36 | 4.33 | 6.25 |
| 888sport | 1.44 | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| Paddy Power | 1.36 | 4.75 | 7.00 |
| BoyleSports | 1.40 | 4.50 | 6.50 |
| LeoVegas | 1.40 | 4.45 | 6.10 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.36 | 4.50 | 7.00 |
| Coral | 1.40 | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.40 | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| Grosvenor | 1.35 | 5.00 | 8.00 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.44 / 4.74 / 6.55 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Nashville SC — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Nashville SCFair line (devig) — Nashville SC
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Nashville SC
WWWDDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 2.25 / 0.83
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 42%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 42%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | H v New York City | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-18 | H v Los Angeles FC | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-05-14 | A v New England Revolution | 3-0 | W |
| 2026-05-10 | H v DC United | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-03 | A v Philadelphia Union | 0-0 | D |
Atlanta United FC
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
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Frequently asked questions
When do Nashville SC play Atlanta United FC?
Kick-off is Sat 18 Jul, 01:10 UK time in the MLS.
What does the model expect for Nashville SC v Atlanta United FC?
The statistical model prices Nashville SC at 50%, the draw at 26% and Atlanta United FC at 24%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Nashville SC v Atlanta United FC?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.52 / 5.03 / 6.94 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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