Chicago Fire v Vancouver Whitecaps FC
MLS1X2 · Chicago FireEfficiently priced recent
Market
2.90
price
34.5%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.90
fair price
34.5%
fair prob
Our model
2.21
model fair price
45.3%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 35%model 45%
Model divergence +10.8 pts
Edge vs fair 0%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Chicago Fire
45%
Draw
27%
Vancouver Whitecaps FC
28%
market fair (devig · sharp): 35% / 26% / 40%
Expected goals (λ)
1.659 — 1.257
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Chicago Fire 45% against the market’s fair 35% — a +10.8 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.659–1.257 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Chicago Fire 32% · Vancouver Whitecaps FC 18% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire | 45.3% | 2.90 | 2.90 | 0% |
| Draw | 27.1% | 3.91 | 3.95 | +1.1% |
| Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 27.6% | 2.51 | 2.38 | -5% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Chicago Fire | Draw | Vancouver Whitecaps FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 2.90 | 3.95 | 2.38 |
| Smarkets | 2.84 | 3.85 | 2.36 |
| William Hill | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
| Sky Bet | 2.70 | 3.75 | 2.20 |
| 888sport | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
| Paddy Power | 2.75 | 3.80 | 2.20 |
| BoyleSports | 2.60 | 3.80 | 2.10 |
| LeoVegas | 2.70 | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| Coral | 2.62 | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| Ladbrokes | 2.62 | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| Betfred (UK) | 2.75 | 3.75 | 2.20 |
| Grosvenor | 2.85 | 3.55 | 2.32 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.76 / 3.72 / 2.39 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Chicago Fire — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Chicago FireFair line (devig) — Chicago Fire
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Chicago Fire
WWWLLW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.92 / 1.17
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 42%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 42%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | H v Toronto FC | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-16 | A v CF Montreal | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-05-14 | A v DC United | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-05-09 | H v New York Red Bulls | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-05-03 | H v FC Cincinnati | 2-3 | L |
Vancouver Whitecaps FC
WLWDDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 2.5 / 1
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | A v San Diego FC | 4-2 | W |
| 2026-05-17 | A v Houston Dynamo | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-14 | A v FC Dallas | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-05-10 | A v San Jose Earthquakes | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-03 | A v Los Angeles Galaxy | 1-1 | D |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-23 | Vancouver Whitecaps v Chicago Fire | 1-3 | USA MLS |
| 2023-08-31 | Chicago Fire v Vancouver Whitecaps | 0-1 | USA MLS |
| 2022-07-24 | Vancouver Whitecaps v Chicago Fire | 1-3 | USA MLS |
| 2020-07-23 | Chicago Fire v Vancouver Whitecaps | 0-2 | USA MLS |
| 2019-04-13 | Chicago Fire v Vancouver Whitecaps | 1-1 | USA MLS |
| 2018-07-08 | Vancouver Whitecaps v Chicago Fire | 3-2 | USA MLS |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More MLS fixtures
CF Montreal v Toronto FCSt. Louis City SC v Sporting Kansas CitySeattle Sounders FC v Portland TimbersNashville SC v Atlanta United FCLA Galaxy v Los Angeles FCInter Miami CF v Chicago Fire
Frequently asked questions
When do Chicago Fire play Vancouver Whitecaps FC?
Kick-off is Fri 17 Jul, 01:30 UK time in the MLS.
What does the model expect for Chicago Fire v Vancouver Whitecaps FC?
The statistical model prices Chicago Fire at 45%, the draw at 27% and Vancouver Whitecaps FC at 28%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Chicago Fire v Vancouver Whitecaps FC?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.90 / 3.91 / 2.51 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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