Chicago Fire v Vancouver Whitecaps FC PREDICTION
MLS Fri 17 Jul, 01:30 UK · in 46h 16m1X2 · Chicago FireEfficiently priced recent
Market
2.90
price
34.5%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.90
fair price
34.5%
fair prob
Our model
2.21
model fair price
45.3%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 35%model 45%
Model divergence +10.8 pts
Edge vs fair 0%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Chicago Fire
45%
Draw
27%
Vancouver Whitecaps FC
28%
market fair (devig · sharp): 35% / 26% / 40%
Expected goals (λ)
1.659 — 1.257
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Chicago Fire 45% against the market’s fair 35% — a +10.8 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.659–1.257 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Chicago Fire 32% · Vancouver Whitecaps FC 18% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More MLS fixtures
CF Montreal v Toronto FCSt. Louis City SC v Sporting Kansas CitySeattle Sounders FC v Portland TimbersNashville SC v Atlanta United FCLA Galaxy v Los Angeles FCInter Miami CF v Chicago Fire
Frequently asked questions
When do Chicago Fire play Vancouver Whitecaps FC?
Kick-off is Fri 17 Jul, 01:30 UK time in the MLS.
What does the model expect for Chicago Fire v Vancouver Whitecaps FC?
The statistical model prices Chicago Fire at 45%, the draw at 27% and Vancouver Whitecaps FC at 28%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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