Seattle Sounders FC v Portland Timbers PREDICTION
MLS Fri 17 Jul, 03:30 UK · in 2d1X2 · Seattle Sounders FCModel behind market recent
Market
1.50
price
66.7%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.56
fair price
64.0%
fair prob
Our model
1.80
model fair price
55.7%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 64%model 56%
Model divergence -8.3 pts
Edge vs fair -4%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Seattle Sounders FC
56%
Draw
26%
Portland Timbers
19%
market fair (devig · sharp): 64% / 19% / 17%
Expected goals (λ)
1.849 — 1.003
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Seattle Sounders FC 56% against the market’s fair 64% — a -8.3 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.849–1.003 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Seattle Sounders FC 40% · Portland Timbers 12% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
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Frequently asked questions
When do Seattle Sounders FC play Portland Timbers?
Kick-off is Fri 17 Jul, 03:30 UK time in the MLS.
What does the model expect for Seattle Sounders FC v Portland Timbers?
The statistical model prices Seattle Sounders FC at 56%, the draw at 26% and Portland Timbers at 19%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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