Houston Dynamo v D.C. United PREDICTION
MLS Thu 23 Jul, 01:30 UK · in 8d1X2 · Houston DynamoModel behind market recent
Market
1.70
price
58.8%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
1.80
fair price
55.5%
fair prob
Our model
2.02
model fair price
49.6%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 56%model 50%
Model divergence -5.9 pts
Edge vs fair -5.6%
11 books priced
Model · 1X2
Houston Dynamo
50%
Draw
26%
D.C. United
24%
market fair (devig · consensus): 56% / 24% / 21%
Expected goals (λ)
1.78 — 1.196
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Houston Dynamo 50% against the market’s fair 56% — a -5.9 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.78–1.196 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Houston Dynamo 35% · D.C. United 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
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Frequently asked questions
When do Houston Dynamo play D.C. United?
Kick-off is Thu 23 Jul, 01:30 UK time in the MLS.
What does the model expect for Houston Dynamo v D.C. United?
The statistical model prices Houston Dynamo at 50%, the draw at 26% and D.C. United at 24%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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