Houston Dynamo v D.C. United
MLS1X2 · Houston DynamoModel behind market recent
Market
1.70
price
58.8%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
1.80
fair price
55.5%
fair prob
Our model
2.02
model fair price
49.6%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 56%model 50%
Model divergence -5.9 pts
Edge vs fair -5.6%
11 books priced
Model · 1X2
Houston Dynamo
50%
Draw
26%
D.C. United
24%
market fair (devig · consensus): 56% / 24% / 21%
Expected goals (λ)
1.78 — 1.196
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Houston Dynamo 50% against the market’s fair 56% — a -5.9 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.78–1.196 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Houston Dynamo 35% · D.C. United 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Dynamo | 49.6% | 1.80 | 1.70 | -5.6% |
| Draw | 26.2% | 4.24 | 4.00 | -5.6% |
| D.C. United | 24.3% | 4.76 | 4.50 | -5.5% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Houston Dynamo | Draw | D.C. United |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas | 1.62 | 3.75 | 4.40 |
| Sky Bet | 1.62 | 3.75 | 4.20 |
| Paddy Power | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| 888sport | 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| William Hill | 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| Bet Victor | 1.65 | 3.75 | 4.50 |
| Betano (UK) | 1.65 | 3.75 | 4.50 |
| Coral | 1.65 | 3.70 | 4.20 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.65 | 3.70 | 4.20 |
| Smarkets | 1.57 | 3.45 | 4.20 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.67 | 3.75 | 4.33 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Houston Dynamo — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Houston DynamoFair line (devig) — Houston Dynamo
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Houston DynamoWDWLWW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.42 / 1.5
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 33% · Clean sheets: 42%
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 33% · Clean sheets: 42%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | H v CD Olimpia | 3-0 | W |
| 2026-05-24 | A v Los Angeles Galaxy | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-17 | H v Vancouver Whitecaps | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-05-14 | A v Real Salt Lake | 0-3 | L |
| 2026-05-11 | A v Los Angeles FC | 4-1 | W |
D.C. United
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
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Frequently asked questions
When do Houston Dynamo play D.C. United?
Kick-off is Thu 23 Jul, 01:30 UK time in the MLS.
What does the model expect for Houston Dynamo v D.C. United?
The statistical model prices Houston Dynamo at 50%, the draw at 26% and D.C. United at 24%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Houston Dynamo v D.C. United?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.80 / 4.24 / 4.76 (consensus, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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