Columbus Crew SC v New York City FC PREDICTION
MLS Thu 23 Jul, 00:30 UK · in 8d1X2 · Columbus Crew SCModel behind market recent
Market
1.95
price
51.3%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.04
fair price
49.0%
fair prob
Our model
2.13
model fair price
47.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 49%model 47%
Model divergence -2 pts
Edge vs fair -4.4%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Columbus Crew SC
47%
Draw
27%
New York City FC
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 49% / 26% / 25%
Expected goals (λ)
1.683 — 1.204
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Columbus Crew SC 47% against the market’s fair 49% — a -2 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.683–1.204 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Columbus Crew SC 33% · New York City FC 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
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Frequently asked questions
When do Columbus Crew SC play New York City FC?
Kick-off is Thu 23 Jul, 00:30 UK time in the MLS.
What does the model expect for Columbus Crew SC v New York City FC?
The statistical model prices Columbus Crew SC at 47%, the draw at 27% and New York City FC at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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