Columbus Crew SC v New York City FC
MLS1X2 · Columbus Crew SCModel behind market recent
Market
1.95
price
51.3%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.04
fair price
49.0%
fair prob
Our model
2.13
model fair price
47.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 49%model 47%
Model divergence -2 pts
Edge vs fair -4.4%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Columbus Crew SC
47%
Draw
27%
New York City FC
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 49% / 26% / 25%
Expected goals (λ)
1.683 — 1.204
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Columbus Crew SC 47% against the market’s fair 49% — a -2 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.683–1.204 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Columbus Crew SC 33% · New York City FC 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus Crew SC | 47.0% | 2.04 | 1.95 | -4.4% |
| Draw | 27.0% | 3.89 | 3.80 | -2.3% |
| New York City FC | 25.9% | 3.95 | 3.75 | -5.1% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Columbus Crew SC | Draw | New York City FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.50 |
| LeoVegas | 1.88 | 3.50 | 3.45 |
| 888sport | 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.50 |
| Sky Bet | 1.83 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Paddy Power | 1.90 | 3.80 | 3.70 |
| Smarkets | 1.81 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.91 | 3.80 | 3.75 |
| Bet Victor | 1.87 | 3.60 | 3.50 |
| Betano (UK) | 1.87 | 3.60 | 3.50 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.85 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Coral | 1.85 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.90 | 3.60 | 3.50 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.92 / 3.66 / 3.72 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Columbus Crew SC — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Columbus Crew SCFair line (devig) — Columbus Crew SC
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Columbus Crew SC
WDLLLW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.42 / 1.5
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | H v Atlanta Utd | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-05-17 | A v Philadelphia Union | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-14 | A v New York Red Bulls | 2-3 | L |
| 2026-05-10 | A v New York City | 0-3 | L |
| 2026-05-03 | H v Minnesota United | 2-3 | L |
New York City FC
LDWWLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.42 / 1.58
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | A v Nashville SC | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-17 | A v New York Red Bulls | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-14 | A v Charlotte | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-05-10 | H v Columbus Crew | 3-0 | W |
| 2026-05-03 | H v DC United | 0-2 | L |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | New York City v Columbus Crew | 3-0 | USA MLS |
| 2025-09-18 | New York City v Columbus Crew | 3-2 | USA MLS |
| 2025-03-22 | Columbus Crew v New York City | 0-0 | USA MLS |
| 2024-09-01 | Columbus Crew v New York City | 4-2 | USA MLS |
| 2024-06-15 | New York City v Columbus Crew | 2-3 | USA MLS |
| 2023-07-09 | Columbus Crew v New York City | 1-1 | USA MLS |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More MLS fixtures
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Frequently asked questions
When do Columbus Crew SC play New York City FC?
Kick-off is Thu 23 Jul, 00:30 UK time in the MLS.
What does the model expect for Columbus Crew SC v New York City FC?
The statistical model prices Columbus Crew SC at 47%, the draw at 27% and New York City FC at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Columbus Crew SC v New York City FC?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.04 / 3.89 / 3.95 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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